The ‘Peace Train’ is a confluence of factors, trends, evolutions and revolutions of the public mind that is currently at work to render major armed conflict a dodo in the coming world to be. These factors and trends come to light from many diverse fields of knowledge: politics, sociology, psychiatry, history, generational studies, sciences of all kinds, astrology, technology, spirituality, etc. In a past time of relatively limited access to primary sources of information, specialized knowledge became compartmentalized. The connection with vital, but otherwise obscure, information was hard to make for the average Citizen. And putting it all together was harder yet due to the fragmented nature of the information. Of course, the Internet has altered that quite a bit. Although I have been a regular reader since teen years of some of the great papers of record (NY Herald Tribune, NYT, etc.), experiencing what was available on the web has been like sitting in the seat of a covered wagon and suddenly getting sucked up into a star trek wormhole.
This is a collection of links that caught my eye the past week or so that give a taste of the changing scene as pundits and scientists try to keep up with a very fluid situation. A context to remember is that Obama has said he wants to end the mindset of war.
The big news this past week was the arrival of the Diplomat Sheik, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, to New York City to address the United Nations and consult with foreign leaders assembled there. Let’s begin with his remarks at a meeting of the Council of Foreign Relations because he clearly lays out the basic dynamic of the coming Peace Train.
The rapid growth of developing and emerging economies — the rapid growth of developing and emerging economies and their ability to achieve what is called catch-up growth suggests that their aggregate economic weight is about to surpass that of the advanced world.
Longer-term forecasts suggest that today’s developing and emerging countries are likely to account for nearly 60 percent of world GDP by 2030, up from around 40 percent in 2000, which would enable them to play a much greater role in global politics. Under such circumstances, and while interdependence and competitive cooperative approach, and not enmity, is the order of the day, zero-sum game and win-lose approaches in international relations has already lost ground when it comes to international ties, as no country could pursue its interests at expense of others.
Those who may still insist on adopting and advancing such approaches will end up imposing a lose-lose approach on themselves, as well as others….
My highlight above is the essential shift that we are making. From win-lose to win-win. It’s really that simple. Well, details and all that are important, too, of course.
From Ben Caspit for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse, Posted on September 27. Speaking about Rouhani
He called on Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This is a powerful land mine, which arouses horror and deep concern in Israel. The attempt to equate the burgeoning Iranian nuclear program with the ambiguous Israeli program can send Netanyahu’s blood pressure rocketing from zero to 200 within seconds.
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Netanyahu’s problem will be that he is swimming against the current, that like a desperate salmon he is trying to swim upstream. Now is the time for politics and diplomacy, and it is a pity Netanyahu does not understand and refuses to go along. One cannot cry “wolf” forever. Sometimes, one has to give other options a chance.
Obama’s telephone call with Rouhani was announced via twitter, bypassing the usual media ‘frame it first’ spinmeisters. Twitter CEO Blown Away by Iran President’s Account as Rouhani Re-Tweets State Department
Indeed, Rouhani’s Twitter account today has been a stunning display of social media diplomacy, which – while symbolic – has broadcast an abundance of good will toward the United States and the Obama administration.
Even before today’s flurry, Twitter CEO Dick Costolo was blown away by the shift in tone from Iran being witnessed via social media.
I feel like i’m witnessing a tectonic shift in the geo-political landscape reading @HassanRouhani tweets. Fascinating.
— dick costolo (@dickc) September 27, 2013
Juan Cole had some further thoughts in Is Iran out of the US War Queue? The Twilight of the Hawks
The significance of Friday’s phone call is that Iran may be removed from the war queue. Current president Hassan Rouhani is harder to demonize than his quirky, populist predecessor. Twenty years of breathless allegations that Iran is 6 months from having an atomic bomb have raised questions about why the Israelis and the American hawks keep being wrong (not to mention, why the kettle is calling the oven black- Israel and the US are nuclear powers but Iran is not).
The Israeli hawks have been promoting Iran as among the top challenges to the West since the early 1990s, aware that the loss of the Soviet Union and then Iraq left them nothing with which to frighten the American public. The Israel lobbies are horrified that they might now lose the Iran bogeyman. Likewise, the US war industries that back right wing senators and congressional representatives are putting their sock puppets such as Lindsey Graham up to seeking authorization for a war on Iran.
…..But as the US moves to wind and solar electricity and electric and hybrid plug-in cars, petroleum’s value will plummet over the next 20 years. The US is going to be energy independent in 20-30 years, but not via fracked gas and oil, which are relatively expensive. Oil certainly won’t be worth going to war over. The Congressional refusal to authorize a strike on Syria is the writing on the wall here.
Remember ‘change the mindset’? Here’s Juan Cole with the crucial question
Without a demonized enemy number 1, how will hawks win election campaigns? How will they scare the public into letting them suspend the constitution and our civil liberties? How will they convince the public to let Congress spend billions on their industrial cronies? Maybe they won’t be able to.
And here’s a comment by seafoid over at Mondoweiss quoting Rabbi Eric H. Yoffie from an Haaretz column in Backlash against Netanyahu: He gets 2-1/2 hours with Obama during shutdown, trying to thwart Iran opening that discusses some of the domestic fallout of the shift in focus.
Of great importance as well are the dramatic changes in the conservative camp. In recent years, Republicans have seen themselves as the assertive, hard-line party, advocates of American activism and champions of American values abroad. But with remarkable speed, this image has disintegrated. Pressured by Senator Rand Paul and the Tea Party, the once assertive GOP has become an either silent or stuttering voice on the great foreign policy issues of the day. Paul, who just last year was seen as a fringe figure, is now on most everyone’s list as a first-tier Republican presidential candidate. Paul is talented, charming, intelligent, and principled — and an unwavering isolationist who demands that America withdraw from the world. “
“What does this mean for Netanyahu?
First, when the time comes, he could order an Israeli attack on Iran. But it is hard to find any American official who believes this is going to happen. Second, following up on his strong UN speech, Netanyahu should lower the tone, dispense with bluster and work hard with American Jews to educate both American parties on the continuing danger and deceptions of Iran. Third, he must convince the Americans that he is prepared for progress on the negotiations with the Palestinians. These negotiations are a high priority for the Obama administration and for the European Union; like it or not, attitudes on Iran will be shaped by perceptions of Israel’s role in the talks. “The game is up for Netanyahu and greater Israel.
The Peace Train is here. While there are still plenty of distractions ahead, the processes are undeniable. But a good catalyst makes the shift happen more quickly. Link to Obama describing his plan for dealing with insincere political actors.
