A “Katrina” magnitide tropical storm is due to hit India on Saturday.
Severe cyclonic storm Phailin is forecast to strike India as a super cyclonic storm at about 12:00 GMT on 12 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.8 N, 84.9 E. Phailin is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 250 km/h (155 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Phailin’s strength (category 4) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal. Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles). There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.>
Fatalities may run as high as 10,000 – 15,000 people despite government ordered evacuations. My thoughts go out to the people of the Indian subcontinent in harm’s way.
