Going Nuclear

I suppose it is possible that Greg Sargent is being used as a conduit to issue a credible threat, but the threat (and the reasoning behind the threat) seems credible to me. Harry Reid intends to “go nuclear” before Thanksgiving. According to Sargent’s reporting, Reid will change the rules of the Senate in such a way that the filibuster will be unavailable to the Republicans for all but Supreme Court nominations.

If this really comes to pass, it will be a major defeat for the Republicans in the short-term. To see why, look at how many vacancies there on the federal courts of appeal (the numbers on senior judges is a best-estimate).

1st Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 2 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 5 GOP. One vacancy, David Jeremiah Barron nominated on September 24, 2013.
2nd Circuit: Active judges: 8 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 6 DEM, 3 GOP. No vacancies.
3rd Circuit: Active judges: 7 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 3 DEM, 9 GOP. Two vacancies.
4th Circuit: Active judges: 9.5 DEM, 5.5* GOP. Senior Judges: 0 DEM, 1 GOP. No vacancies.
5th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 10 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 6 GOP. Three vacancies.
6th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 10 GOP. Senior Judges: 5 DEM, 8 GOP. One vacancy.
7th Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 7 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 3 GOP. One vacancy.
8th Circuit: Active judges: 3 DEM, 7 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 8 GOP. No vacancies.
9th Circuit: Active judges: 18 DEM, 9 GOP. Senior Judges: 9 DEM, 7 GOP. Two vacancies, John B. Owens and Michelle T. Friedland nominated on August 1st, 2013.
10th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 4 DEM, 6 GOP. Two vacancies, Carolyn B. McHugh nominated on May 16th, 2013 and Nancy Moritz nominated on August 1st, 2013
11th Circuit: Active judges: 5 DEM, 3 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 6 GOP. Four vacancies. Jill A. Pryor nominated on February 16, 2012 and Robin S. Rosenbaum nominated on November 7, 2013.
DC Circuit: Active judges: 4 DEM, 4 GOP. Senior Judges: 1 DEM, 5 GOP. Three vacancies: Patricia Millett, Nina Pillard, and Robert L. Wilkins nominated on June 4th, 2013.
Federal Circuit: Active judges: 7 DEM, 5 GOP. Senior Judges: 2 DEM, 4 GOP. No vacancies.
*judge was nominated by Clinton and renominated by Bush.

There are 19 total vacancies, all of which would be filled within a year. You can figure which courts would be the most important on your own. Just keep in mind that Senior Judges do hear cases. Their presence on the court helps determine the ideological makeup of the court. That’s one reason why the Republicans have fought so hard against the three DC Circuit judges.

I said a while ago that the Democrats had no choice but to go nuclear, and it looks like I might be right.