I doubt Wendy Davis can win the upcoming gubernatorial contest in Texas, but I think the result hinges a little less on who her allies are than on who her opponent winds up being and whether or not Davis can appeal to a sufficient number of white women. If her opponent is an imbecile, that’ll be worth a couple of points. But the real challenge is eating into the Republicans’ overwhelming advantage with white voters. I don’t think Davis can do much about her lack of appeal to conservative white men, but she just might be able to make a connection with a not insignificant number of white women.
She’ll start out with some support from younger women who are concerned about their reproductive rights and are less culturally conservative than their parents. But, to make meaningful inroads, she’ll need to connect with married white women. An insensitive male opponent would assist her in that effort.
Finally, she’ll have to have a great turnout operation and clean up with the Latino vote. All the stars would have to align, but it’s not out of the question.
