I’m not sure that Harry Reid is correct that Speaker Boehner will violate the Hastert Rule to pass immigration reform, and I am even less certain that Reid is improving Boehner’s likelihood of doing that by predicting that he will “cave in” to pressure to pass the immigration bill.
On the other hand, Sen. Reid is absolutely right about this:
“We have a lot of these congressional districts, they don’t care because they don’t have people of color in their congressional districts,” Reid said. “They don’t care. But there are a number of them who do care. If the Republicans ever want to elect a Republican president again, they’re going to have to get right with the Hispanic and Asian community who by more than 70 percent voted for [President Barack] Obama last time.”
The problem on this issue is similar to the problem on any number of other issues. The “don’t care” caucus is in control of the House. Boehner has only been willing to buck them a few times, and only at the last possible moment. Immigration reform is a pretty emotional issue on the right, and I’d be surprised if Boehner backtracked from everything he has been saying about doing the bill piecemeal and suddenly allowed a vote on anything that could be joined to the Senate bill in conference. But, we’ll see.
Is immigration reform a must-pass? No, it isn’t. Is it even a very good bill? No, it’s a very crappy bill that’s a step up from a super crappy system. That the GOP can’t even pass this is just another example of how broken our government is. And it’s all the fault of Josh Barro’s favored elite.
It may not be a must-pass to you, but there are millions of people out there to whom this is not an abstraction. Think of all the kids and young adults who live every day of their lives with the danger of losing their parents, or of being sent “back” to a country they never knew.
I’m not saying this bill must pass in its present form, but this isn’t the time to just throw up our hands and give up on the pathway to citizenship.
More cynically, I think keeping the pressure on for immigration reform is good political strategy, too. It’s got broad popular support, so it’s a good way to put the Republicans on the defensive and bring their racism and xenophobia out in the open for everyone to see. And it’s another way to drive a wedge into their party, because there are Republicans in Congress who have large numbers of Latinos in their districts. Those guys are terrified, and with good reason, so why turn down the heat?
I think you misunderstand my point. I’m talking must-pass like the bills to keep the government open. The clowns in the House couldn’t even pass a farm bill and people expect them to pass immigration reform? Of course immigration reform is important. That doesn’t mean The Tan Man is going to risk pissing off his caucus by trying to pass anything more than what absolutely has to be done.
Well, yeah, when you put it that way. After all, we know that Boehner wants to be judged on the number of laws he repeals, not the number of bills he passes.
Although, I wonder if there are any laws that could be repealed in order to put immigrants on a pathway to citizenship, or at least to ease the threat of deportation? Hmm…
It’s also the case that Obama has been much harsher on the executive side of things than previous presidents. Whether he has something against “lawbreakers” or is just afraid of looking “soft” it is much worse than it needs to be right now.
For what ever reason they’re all afraid of looking “soft.”
The Obama Administration seems to make a habit of prosecuting laws more harshly. This often results in either the laws being changed, the Dems attempting to change the laws but being stopped by the GOP, or the courts getting a chance to fix things. All of which work to Obama’s advantage. I suspect that it was his intent to make the immigration situation so intolerable that it had to be dealt with.
I don’t see it that way.
I think it was two things.
So, basically, he had no incentive to stop the increase in deportations, but he wasn’t responsible for the increase. And the increase suited his purposes.
So, basically, he had no incentive to stop the increase in deportations, but he wasn’t responsible for the increase. And the increase suited his purposes.
Then he shouldn’t be surprised when possible allies rip him a new butthole.
seems that ditching hastert rule would mean doing the senate bill rather than the chopped-up approach, no?
i mean, boehner’s not gonna wanna do that over and over again.
Congressional districts without ppl of color? where? he must mean registered voters not residents. iirc wasn’t the largest number of participants in the immigration reform demo a few years back from Wyoming?
Speaking of Reid, how are those confirmations going? Or have none of them been brought up yet?
They’ve been in recess.
Hope that Obama has been using the recess to find people to fill all the slots. He has every incentive to do so, even considering blue slip stalling.
Not now. Reid does not need to detract attention from the budget process. The process the teabaggers seem to have no interest or input.
Here, John, have an anvil.
Hobson’s choice: Ditch Hastert rule or face immigration as an issue in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana where there might be enough turnout to make a difference in House races.
I’m betting that Boehner hugs the Hastert rule tightly.
I suspect you’re right. Another consideration is the prospect of 11 million new voters. It may already be too late for the Republicans to win over more than a fraction of those voters any time soon, even if they do allow immigration reform to pass. They’ve made their hostility all too clear.
Of course, the smart thing for the Republicans to do would be to pass immigration reform anyway, and recognize that they do have time to repair some of the damage they’ve done, since it’s not like there are going to be 11 million new voters tomorrow. More likely they’re going to continue the circling the wagons strategy, since they’ve lost all ability to think ahead.