Iowa Governor Terry Branstad was born on November 17th, 1946, so he would be just shy of 70 years old on election day in 2016. That’s pretty aged for a presidential candidate, but he’s only a year older than Hillary Clinton and he’s actually four years younger than Joe Biden.
Branstad served as governor of Iowa from January 14, 1983 to January 15, 1999, and was elected again in 2010. His polling numbers in his home state are solid. I have to assume that he’d be able to win the Iowa caucuses if he chose to run for president.
The last time someone from Iowa ran for president was 1992, and here were the results of the Iowa caucuses: Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%).
Of course, most people don’t even remember that Tom Harkin ran for president that year. He got 10% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary and was the first candidate to drop out and endorse Bill Clinton. Yet, his mere presence on the ballot prevented the other candidates from seriously contesting Iowa.
Thinking about it, it would be a crushing disappointment to the Iowa economy if Gov. Terry Branstad made the caucuses irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, eight or nine candidates would descend on the state, some with the intent to visit all 99 counties, bringing reporters and political operatives in tow, all of whom would consume food and drink and need lodging. The local television stations would be flooded with money for political advertising, and the local papers would have tons of compelling stories to tell. Most of that would go away if the Republican nomination were not seriously contested.
Yet, this might be the best way for Branstad to help Chris Christie. It’s very unlikely that Chris Christie could do well in Iowa because the state’s Republicans are usually attracted to evangelical candidates or, at least, candidates who wear their religion on their sleeve. But Christie would be the heavy favorite in New Hampshire.
One way that establishment Republicans can prevent a recurrence of 2008, where they had to endure Mike Huckabee as a serious competitor, or 2012, where Rick Santorum gave Romney fits, is to prevent a religious nut-job from getting a head start in the first contest. And that’s probably not possible unless Branstad runs.
If I were a (non-crazy) bigwig GOP honcho, I’d be setting up a Branstad for President SuperPAC as we speak. My real aim would be to get Christie the nomination. And, if Christie somehow pulled it off, a new Quinnipiac poll shows that he might be able to beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
