Nominating Max Baucus to be the next Ambassador to China is a brilliant move on several levels, although not all of them will he happy for progressives. Baucus has already announced that he will not seek reelection, so taking him out of the Senate will allow Democratic Governor Steve Bullock to select his replacement. That is likely to be to Lieutenant Governor John Walsh, who was already seeking the seat. He will gain the advantage of incumbency, and also get a seniority advantage over other senators who are elected next year.
Moving Baucus out of the Senate will open up the chairmanship of the powerful Finance Committee, which will probably pass over Sen. Jay Rockefeller (who is also retiring) and fall to Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon. Progressives will have mixed feelings about that, as Wyden is definitely an improvement over Baucus but has also played a bit of footsie with House Republican Budget chairman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. In order to take over the Finance Committee, Wyden would have to pass his gavel of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee to Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana.* This could be a major boost to Landrieu’s reelection prospects, but also a major blow to any thought that the Democrats in the Senate might do anything about climate change that would make energy-producing states uncomfortable.
The last bit of this puzzle isn’t discussed in the cited article, but the retirement of Baucus will also open up a slot on the Finance Committee. Slots on the Finance Committee are highly coveted and are not given out to freshmen, but they can help a vulnerable senator’s prospects of reelection. This is primarily because members of the Finance Committee are lavished with campaign contributions from powerful interests who want to control tax policy. The Democrats can therefore use the slot to give one of their more vulnerable members a slight advantage in next year’s midterms.
This is how Washington works, unfortunately, but you can play game well or poorly. For progressives, getting Baucus out of the Senate and away from the Finance Committee is a good thing. Moving Wyden from Energy & Natural Resources* to Finance is not a good thing. Having Landrieu take over Energy & Natural Resources* is not a good thing. Having Landrieu reelected is a good thing.
It’s complicated.
*[Correction: the original article incorrectly called the Energy & Natural Resources Committee the Energy & Commerce Committee. The Energy and Commerce Committee is in the House of Representatives.]
