If former UN Ambassador John Bolton runs for president then I think Rep. Pete King’s candidacy would be redundant. I suspect Rick Santorum will run for a couple of reasons. First, he has nothing else to do. Second, the GOP has a history of nominating the guy who came in second the last time around. They did with Poppy in 1988, Dole in 1996, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012. It seems like a stupid strategy, since there is a reason they rejected the candidate the first time, but it gives Santorum a reason to hope that he could actually be the nominee. John Boehner is pushing for Jeb Bush, but Barbara is opposed to the idea. If Jeb doesn’t run and Christie is too damaged to make a go of it, then the field is really wide open. I have no idea who the money guys have in mind. I can’t imagine it’s Paul Ryan, although it could come to that. I think they need an Eisenhower, but we don’t have any of those right now.
I suspect that there will be some more token candidates in the Herman Cain-Michele Bachmann mode, and Rand Paul will probably make a run despite his serial plagiarism (because, standards? what standards?).
Which of the governors will run? Rick Perry? Bobby Jindal? Will they even waste their time?
And who will be running (essentially) for vice-president? Or to set themselves up for 2020?
Ryan has that perfect mix of blinding ambition and lack of self awareness to run.
Santorum will run.
I do think there’s room for a governor to make an impact. Maybe Rick Snyder? Scott is a felon, Christie and McConnell soon will be and Scott Walker has the charisma of a toadstool.
In the end, I think it will come down to Ryan vs Santorum, Chamber of Commerce vs the Tea Party.
And it will be Hillary vs Schweitzer on the Democrat’s side. The diminishing echo of the DLC vs the Prairie Populist 2.0.
I think Biden will also run.
How about Gore? He’s younger than Biden, isn’t he? About the same age as Clinton. Used to be a somebody …
Schweitzer will not reach the finish line. He’s angling for veep at best.
I think Kelley Ayotte is running for v.p. [and Eric Cantor is backing her, though she is in back of him in all the photos].
That’s interesting. She’s up for re-election in 2016. I could see the GOP tokenist thinking on those lines. Can she run for both the Senate and the Veep, like Lieberdouche?
I wonder if this is a sign that she thinks she’s doomed in NH?
I think she’s always been doomed in NH – or maybe that’s just that I’m hoping. Paul Hodes ran against her in 2010. I never understood what happened there, he ran a terrible campaign, or, as far as I could tell he didn’t campaign at all, and it was 2010. she seems to be a Koch puppet, her campaign appeared to be the ALEC / Koch boilerplate, not at all connected with NH issues. don’t know who will run against her for Senate though and don’t know how things are shaping up there. very curious about ACA which should have an impact – the governor is [still] trying to get the Medicaid expansion [very much needed] but it appears is not yet decided.
http://medicaidexpansion.com/medicaid-expansion-new-hampshire/
Kelley Ayotte’s issues should emerge depending who runs against her.
Paul Ryan is the establishment’s only hope. The man’s a vapid narcissist, but the Beltway Villagers think he’s a Very Serious and Intellectual Man, so he’ll get good press. I don’t see anybody in the red meat conservative movement voting for him in a primary, though. He’s not belligerent enough.
And, of course, Huckabee!
Is that like 5 dimensional Godwin? this will be very confusing from the time travel point of view. especially if he runs on explicit patriarchalism. maybe he’ll explain finally how equal marriage destroys traditional marriage and how women shouldn’t control their own bodies because libido
This is the trajectory
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/erick-bennett-police-report-domestic-violence
Huntsman? Thune? Pawlenty? Gingrich? Cruz? Pence? Kasich? Perkins? Rubio? Portman? Coburn? Toomey? Corker? Cornyn?
It’s so wide open.
Eclectablog received a GOP fundraiser and straw poll that had this list of choices:
It likely was put together before the George Washington Bridge “traffic study” was unmasked, but it is very interesting to play around with.
For example, one can make a list of the Senators and Governors not on the list (and thus not considered electable). You can of course eliminate the already-has-run-and-lost-to-Obama pair. Is there a Republican blacklist discernable?
One can also make a list called the “Odd Couple”, a ticket whose apparent balance is offset by the fact that the candidates would likely despise each other.
And then there’s the Na Gn Hpn list for people like Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich.
Finally there is the Gravitas list, which at the moment is looking like an empty set.
And why is there no Eisenhower? Because of the masterful takedown of Gen. Petraeus by President Obama.
There is no Eisenhower because no general since Scwarzkopf even had the appearance of winning a war. Running Petreaus was like the Republican’s wet dream of running William Westmoreland for Governor of South Carolina. In the middle of the 1970s when the Vietnam War was on the verge of collapse.
If Iraq deteriorates, or explodes, I could imagine someone like Ray Odierno–one of the heroes of The Surge–suddenly having some traction in presidential politics.
I thought that was Rolling Stone. Or was that McCrystal?
Rolling Stone was Michael Hasting’s interview with McChrystal
I don’t suppose even the GOP would try to rehabilitate Petraeus? Assuming he’d even want to get into the meat grinder, of course.
Never forget IOKYAR. Plus his only negative with the general public is that he had a dalliance with a woman not his wife. It’s not as if Democrats haven’t been defending Clinton for decades for his affairs.
Then the idea of revenge for team Obama taking him down would appeal to the teabaggers. Gates’ Duty could be seen as setting the stage for someone like Petraeus or Jeb! Scary.
The little birds in my personal network have become atwitter with Dr. Ben Carson and Tim Scott. Of the two, Ben Carson is the one to watch–against health care reform and African-American (he’s a specialist, natch). Scott has to get re-elected this year when South Carolina votes for both its Senators.
Carson is like all the other wannabe POTUS candidates with zero experience in elective office. Wet dreams for themselves and the naive wannabe political junkies. The list is long and varied other than the fact that they have no freaking chance, but provide enough distraction that insures the nomination of the one the “big boys” want.
what is your assessment of the Dem side of the races? impact of having two Senate races?
Non-existent. Against Graham, Pavilack is a 74-year-old Myrtle Beach lawyer who was a star Clemson football player during the 1958-1962 seasons. Who remember him? And Jay Stamper has no visible means of support except supposedly non-profit somethings for entrepreneurship (caution: buzzword).
Against Scott is a guy named Wade who hasn’t broken out of a Facebook page for advertising yet. Pitches himself as a business owner.
No one with any previous public office, even a county register of deeds or a tiny town mayor.
Which makes me wonder whether there’s a pulse in the state Democratic Party.
It does take 1.2 million votes to win. That’s a steep cliff for someone with no name recognition at all and no record. No Democratic state senators are game.
Democrats are going to have learn how to run against black conservatives, because ambitious black candidates either from ideology or through pragmatism are stepping over to the Republican Party more often. In Democratic strongholds, they are moving there because the incumbents are such long-timers that the bench is tied up for Democrats.
Which is which racial moderation in the South could entrench a biracial conservative moralistic Republican Party. So far the Duck Dynasty confederates have not allowed that to happen, but if the bigots are pushed aside it might not be good news for Democrats at all.
bleak picture. especially since younger generation, I would assume, has many fewer of the Duck Dynasty confederates and more moral conservatives open to a biracial coalition
Ben Carson = Herman Cain 2.0
My longshot is Robert Gates. His book has both insulted and praised Obama, so that gives him the veneer of even-handedness. He has said almost nothing about the culture wars so he doesn’t get “bigoted hick” painted on him, but as an intelligence stalwart over the decades he is tightly aligned with the corporatist wing of the GOP. And while he’s more of a Bush than Jeb, he doesn’t have to wear the name. The MIC has not been happy with Obama’s aversion to war, and Gates would certainly rectify that.
Gates is what would pass for an Eisenhower at this late stage of the empire. Petraeus was a thought for them at one point before the last election, but that didn’t work out.
Gates will be 73 years old in 2016. A decade older than Ike was in ’52. And unlike Ike, he’s not a “war hero” with high name recognition. He’s one of those that serve the interests of his patrons and the GOP elite in appointed capacities and not by being elected to anything.
So
BoltonYosemite Sam is considering a run? Seriously?