Retaining control of the Senate is going to be difficult for the Democrats, and it isn’t as simple as turning out the general election voters. That would help the Democrats retain seats in states like Michigan that Obama carried in 2012, but it would not be enough in states like Louisiana, Arkansas, and Montana. The normal route to victory would be for Democrats in red states to show their worth to their constituents while creating some distance from the president and the national party. But a safer strategy is for the Democrats to make a straightforward appeal to voters in red states. Promoting a hike in the minimum wage is what they seem to have latched onto, and that’s not bad. But to really break through, the Democrats need something bolder. Wiping out college debt or rescheduling marijuana as a safer drug are two things that could energize young people. They also need to go on offense with health care. Defensiveness over the Affordable Care Act could be disastrous.
Overall, it would be better to have candidates like Mark Pryor, Kay Hagan, John Walsh, and Mary Landrieu pitching populist policies, even if they aren’t immediately achievable, than to have them distancing themselves from the party and the president. Also, the Republicans are nuts, and they should be pointing that out. Agricultural issues can be exploited, too, in a lot of these races. The GOP’s extremism has created a lot of vulnerabilities but they can only be exploited if the Democrats are willing to go on offense.
If the elections are nationalized under the current red/blue split, the Democrats will have a bad election night. But, if the Democrats change the narrative, they can win over some Romney voters and keep control of the Senate.
