Welcome the newest Democrat to the party. Evan Alvarez, the chairman of the Mississippi Federation of College Republicans, has resigned his position and decided to switch parties. His father came to America in 1959 after Fidel Castro seized power in Cuba. For the next 55 years, Cuban-Americans would serve as one of the Republican Party’s most loyal constituencies, particularly in the Deep South. But, that has changed:
Cubans in the U.S. have long identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party, even as Hispanics overall have tilted Democrat. But the party affiliation of Cubans has undergone a shift over the past decade, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.
Less than half (47%) of Cuban registered voters nationwide now say they identify with or lean toward the Republican Party—down from the 64% who said the same about the GOP a decade ago, according to 2013 survey data. Meanwhile, the share of Cubans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party has doubled from 22% to 44% over the same time period, according to the survey of Hispanics.
It has particularly changed among people Evan Alvarez’s age. According to Pew, “Over half (56%) of Cubans ages 18 to 49 identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party compared with 39% of those 50 years and older.”
You can imagine what this means for the fortunes of Republican candidates in Florida. It means that a contemporary candidate would have to do much better than George W. Bush did with non-Cubans in 2000 and 2004 to have any shot at winning Florida.
Florida’s Latino population is unique because it is made up primarily of Cubans and Puerto Ricans, neither of whom have the immigration status concerns of many Mexicans and Central Americans. Still, the Puerto Ricans don’t share the Cubans’ Cold War affinity for the GOP, and their population has been growing. You can see why that matters:
In 2008, Obama won 57 percent of Florida’s Hispanic vote; Republican nominee John McCain, 42 percent. However, Cubans supported McCain 53 percent to 47 percent. Non-Cuban Hispanics backed Obama by 65 percent to 33 percent.
Obviously, Barack Obama won Florida in 2008, and then again in 2012. I think we should expect any likely Republican presidential candidate to do worse in 2016, both among Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans. That means that they will have to do a lot better than McCain and Romney did with whites. How do you think they will go about doing that?
Evan Alvarez is quitting the party because of the influence of the Tea Party in Mississippi, which is basically a way of politely saying that the party is too racist for this young Cuban-American.
This is a canary in a coal mine.
Without winning Florida, a Republican’s path to the White House is all but blocked.
