I have long thought that Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) will be one of the most vulnerable Republicans up for reelection in 2016. But he’s also one of the most viable general election candidates for president that the GOP could potentially field that year. I’m not happy to learn that he has presidential ambitions.
I can list a half dozen compelling reasons why Sen. Portman would have difficulty winning the nomination, but the list wouldn’t be any more compelling than similar lists I could have made about John McCain and Mitt Romney’s chances. The truth is, the Republican primary voters have a history of pragmatism when it comes to their nominations. In the end, they value perceived electability very highly. Since Ronald Reagan left office, I think only the younger Bush was ever truly loved by the party base. Poppy, Dole, McCain, and Romney all had significant opposition from the party faithful. So, history tells me that Sen. Portman could overcome his support for gay marriage, his ties to the Bush family, his role as OMB director during a time of staggering deficit spending, and his role in pushing through free trade agreements that cost many Americans their jobs.
Still, I question whether or not the old sureties are still operational. The contemporary Republican base is significantly more radical and more agitated than in the past. Pragmatism, compromise, and moderation are all dirty words to them. They no longer love the Bush family or shrug at deficit spending, and the evangelicals are incensed about the advance of gay marriage. They seem to be increasingly hostile to both the Washington Establishment and the interests of business groups like the Chamber of Commerce. I just have a feeling that in 2016, the party faithful will looking for the second coming of Barry Goldwater rather than a centrist whose main asset is electability. In the end, Dole, McCain, and Romney were not elected, and that has caused the base to conclude that “electability” is a scam and a sell-out.
It could be that Portman is the most dangerous possible candidate, but so was Jon Huntsman last time around. Either way, I’m going to keep my eyes on Portman, because I think he would be a strong challenger.
