The last four presidential elections in Florida have been very close. The largest victory was George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection, when he managed to win Florida 52%-47%. Obama won 50%-49% and 51%-48%, and 2000 was basically a tie that was broken by the conservative Supreme Court.
So, it’s telling that Hillary Clinton currently has a double-digit lead on every Republican not named Jeb Bush.
The Democratic side is another story with Clinton consistently leading the way over would-be Democratic rivals and beating Republicans.
Except for [Jeb] Bush, whom she leads by 7 points, 49-42, she beats other Republicans by double digits. Her lead over [Senator Marco] Rubio is 53-39.
The thing about Florida is that its totals in the past four elections have closely mirrored the national popular vote.
2000: Florida Vote 49%-49%, National Vote 48%-48%
2004: Florida Vote 52%-47%, National Vote 51%-48%
2008: Florida Vote 51%-48%, National Vote 53%-46%
2012: Florida Vote 50%-49%, National Vote 51%-47%
I know people will make the point that Clinton’s favorables will come down and all that…blah…blah…blah…but this post isn’t trying to predict the future. It’s just making the point that if Clinton, or any other Democrat, actually wins Florida by anything like 14 points, then there is a good chance that they will win the popular vote by a similar margin.