I’m inclined to agree with Nate Silver that Hillary Clinton doesn’t have an ideological problem emanating from her left. The left-wing of the party, when polled, has tended to show modestly more support for her than the center wing. However, the circles I run in are kind of elite left-wing opinion-leader circles: writers, editors, professors. Among this group, there is a pretty widespread skepticism about Hillary Clinton, Clintonism, New Democrats, the Democratic Leadership Council, and the Clinton entourage (see: Lanny Davis, Mark Penn, Dick Morris, etc.). Add to this a couple of more things. First, with the world such a mess, foreign policy is going to be an important topic in any competitive Democratic primary. That’s why Hillary decided to “hug it out” with President Obama. Because, secondly, if she gets on the wrong side of President Obama’s supporters, then she will see that strong support from the left dry up in a hurry.
So, without overestimating the influence of the people on the left who write and publish about politics, Clinton runs the risk of raising the ire of left-wing opinion leaders, and she runs the risk of alienating the rank-and-file left, too. While she has a lot of room to run to the middle, as Silver correctly assesses, if it is done prematurely, she could discover that there really is a threat from the left.
If she wants to avoid a tough primary contest, she should keep the president in a bear hug for the next year or so.
