Promoted by Steven D. You guys know TarheelDem and how brilliant are his comments. He has stepped up big time to help out Martin, and this is a great piece, an essay that should be in a national publication, in my opinion. Yes it is long, but please do yourself and the site a favor and read this post, and leave a comment. I shortened the original title a little to make sure the comments would post. Thank-you. Steve
Regardless of the outcome of the US election, any elections in Europe, Australia, New Zealand–or even India, Pakistan, and China, the Washington consensus and neoliberal capitalism prevail as the current imagination of the global economy. Global climate change is occurring with zero response from the people who have the power and resources that could mitigate or even reverse this fossil-fuel-caused climate trend. Indeed spending the natural savings accout of environmental services, natural materials (non-renewable and renewable), and fossil fuels seems to be accelerated in one vast binge of “Drill, baby, drill. Mine, baby, mine. Burn, baby, burn.” consumption constrained only by the lower consumer demand that results from the mass impoverishment of ordinary people around the world. Privatization of infrastructure continues to be the policy direction of US Democrats and Republicans, European conservatives, social democrats, and socialists and global institutions are being rigged to force the privatization of health care systems, transportation systems, water systems, sanitation systems, education systems, and even income security systems in every country of the world. Whether pending international agreements to lock this system down are signed, ratified and implemented, these agreements — Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Area (TAFTA), and redundant systems of interlocking bilateral free trade agreements — a lot of their provisions will be the operating assumptions of the world’s finance ministers and governments. Clearly the emphasis is to continue to shortchange public infrastructure maintenance and privatize the infrastructure assets.
(keep reading below the fold)
At the same time, citizens of the world’s countries are subsidizing $1.8 trillion (with a “T”) in military spending. At best, military spending is a waste of natural and human resources justified by potential failures of political processes. At worst, military spending is the active destructions of massive amounts of infrastructure and the polluting of environments with unexploded ordnance, industrial chemicals, land mines, anti-personnel mines, nuclear waste, and potential biological hazards.
And the means of social control and suppression of investigation and dissent are growing in every country, but most alarming in the English-speaking countries that long expressed pride in the English Magna Carta, various bills of rights, and, until recently, the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Australia has recently passed an draconian surveillance and journalist prosecution law. In the US, the quaint Espionage Act of 1917 has been used to prosecute those who leak classified information that the the Obama administration does not want leaked (through instant declassification) and now also journalists who report that leaked information in a responsible manner to the public. The US National Security Agency of the US Department of Defense intends to collect all information on everyone, including US citizens, the US Bill of Rights notwithstanding. The US Constitution has been replaced with 225 years of court precedents that in some sense stand the intent of that document on its head, privileging corporate institutions over individuals and enshrining money as a form of speech. And in country after country, police forces that previously have not been militarized now are. And in the United States there are now more firearms in circulation than there are people in the population even as the local police forces in the US increase the deadliness of their SWAT tactics and militarize their equipment. And in the United States the Department of Homeland Security has created coordination among law enforcement agencies in a way that mimics the national police forces of many totalitarian nations. And has built a police culture of impunity and prejudice that provides a uniform means of suppression of dissent and of minority populations almost without regard to where in the United States you go. Even the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has followed this trend.
Protest now that isn’t ignored is violently suppressed while the commercial media and also the public media threatened with privatization ignore or malign the protesters who are treated violently by the authorities. The poster child for this phenomenon is the trial of Cecily McMillan. And of course, there is no longer redress in most courts. The police forces, the media, the court system are all part of the infrastructure.
Here is the etymology of infrastructure just for reference:
Infrastructure
1. An underlying base or foundation especially for an organization or system
2.The basic facilities, services and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society
It reportedly dates from military uses in the 1890s, appropriated by economists and bureaucrats during the 20th century for stuff like communications and transportation systems.
And here is the ancient root of the word wealth that is combined in the word commonwealth to designate the society-wide sphere of activity.
weal
“well-being,” from Old English wela “wealth,” in late Old English also “welfare, well-being,” from West Germanic *welon-, from PIE root *wel- (2) “to wish, will” (see will (v.)). Related to well (adv.).
The word conflates contemporary ideas of well-being (economic, social, cultural) and will (political, cultural).
My argument hereafter is that infrastructure is exactly and precisely what people in the 17th and 18th century understood by commonwealth and embraced what people in the early 19th century meant by internal improvements. And until Karl Marx (or was that Friedrich Hayek) came along they were seen as normal functions of government. But no longer in the 21st century. Even the Democratic President of the United States prefers the private before the commonwealth as do most Democrats in Congress. Even the Canadian Parliament, the UK Parliament, and the French President from the Socialist Party no less are on the same page as the disciples of Hayek — because all of their central banks are.
Ordinary people are increasingly shut out of the institutions that might secure life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
So what to do?
First and individual inventory of one’s powers and limitations. People differ in their capacity for processing information, the current buzzword is attention bandwidth. They differ in stamina, commonly called energy. They differ in the size, scope, diversity, and influence of their social networks. What an individual does is an autonomous personal decision that it will be hard for people around them not to second-guess. Resisting the temptation to second-guess other people’s decisions is probably the best first thing to do. It’s the people who show up, not the ones who don’t that you can work along with. And the crap has gone on for so long that the temptation not to show up is still very strong. One does what one can. Then network and act. The group that intends an activity or action carries it through; it either works or it doesn’t. Then that group of a different network of people carries out another activity. It’s pretty commonplace really. Not the sort of thing to get those romantic revolutionary feelings reminiscent of 1789 or 1848 really going. When the state is smashing itself through privatization, it’s time to move on to something different.
The revolution is this very humbling task: Create the commonwealth for a global population scheduled to reach 11 billion by 2100 and do everything possible to see that every human being has the possibility of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness within it. There are governance and culture and resources tasks within that, but the topic of this post is infrastructure, especially what needs to happens to cushion against the potential risk of the imminent collapse of the current system of global transnational capitalism and US military dominance. This generation doesn’t have to accomplish the entire revolution, just the first steps.
Like saying clearly what exactly it is that constitutes the world turned upside down. Before the triumph of the 99% over their 1% masters, there is a more fundamental turning upside down. That is the perspective that we do not dominate the earth; it allows us to exist despite our follies. The planetary ecosystem accomplishes much of the services and provides all of the materials for human existence that we need to understand so as not to interrupt its functioning. And act to restore its functioning where it has been interrupted. The longest term process is the rock cycle, in which surface rocks are dragged into the mantle through subduction zones, remelted and extruded out as reprocessed minerals and rocks in the spreading of rift valley ridges. I used to think that this process was over such a long term and so large in scale that human activity couldn’t possible ever interrupt this grandest of garbage services — old rocks for new. Some folks need to investigate this from the perspective of what possibly could go wrong, especially what sorts of human engineering could dramatically screw this up.
Then there’s the water and sediment cycle. Water evaporates and forms clouds that get saturated to the point that rain falls and over time washes mineral crystals out by dissolving more soluble rocks. Over many evaporation cycles, those dissolved minerals and suspended less soluble minerals scour the rocks they run downstream over and eventually settle out as sediment sand, silts, and clays. Those sedimentary rocks in turn become rocks over which water flows, dissolving them back into the mineral suspensions and solutions. Here is where the manmade environment has created large problems from erosion and siltation of strreams. Building projects that mitigate the effects of impervious surfaces and reducing the amount of impervious surfaces restores the better functioning of this part of the infrastructure. Involved in this is restoration of wetlands, well-though-out dam removal, and recycling and reprocessing of already mined materials.
Then there is the web of soil, plant, and animal life — those things popularly thought of as the ecology, the biosphere. Topsoil loss is epidemic in the world. Cultivation of plants whose sole function is the replace deep layers of topsoil if replicable in enough places is a revolutionary act. Reading narratives of travel and discovery often strikes one with how much the past 500 years of human action and global capitalism have destroyed and how fast the destruction is now moving. There is Kansas; there is Syria; there is Haiti; there is Angola. There is an immense amount of work to be done here. There is an immense amount yet to learn. There is a huge body of literature that can inform these efforts that has not yet been properly indexed and made available for rapid search. There are likely old books not yet scanned, and thus widely available, that could provide historical descriptions and insights about local ecologies. And then there is the development of best practices of mitigation tailored for each local area.
Then there is the huge network of human society with its mental maps of social organization and cultural expectations and symbols, and its activities making things, processing information, providing services, communicating, and coordinating. That it is an emergent activity of human life is evident from the failure of all attempts to design it or bring it under the control of a logical system. It fails to function when there is physical disorder, enforced idleness, epidemic ignorance, addictive behaviors, and interpersonal dysfunction. This is the area of infrastructure most a risk from the current rush to privatization; under privatization, the functions to deal with preserving the social network just completely disappear for everyone. What is required to support this network of interaction is not completely understood; there are many tasks in developing that understanding. Here are some examples of where some edge thinking is: functional medicine, which integrates conventional clinical practice with nutrition, exercise, deep understanding of biochemical physiology, yoga, acupuncture, and meditation to provide a state of health; the social creation of addictive behaviors; compilation of effective self-management practices to get tasks done; conflict negotiation; facilitation of deliberative processes so as not to bias the process; self-directed education; post-factory public education; reimagining work so that unemployment is no longer possible as a category. This list can run on an on. There are a large number of people working on many different innovative ways to deal with the issues here.
The next level is the technosphere, those global networks of human technology that we typically think of as being the entire infrastructure. Proceeding from the oldest technology to the most recent, there are plant identification and foraging practices and sharing, animal hunting and fishing practices and tools, agricultural systems, water transportation systems, water systems, transportation routes and networks, communication networks, sanitation systems, mechanical power systems, electric power systems, energy generation and production systems, electric communication systems, air transportation systems, electronic communications systems, data processing systems, information processing systems, data sharing networks, information sharing networks, global interoperative intercommunicating networks, archival storage networks, business support networks, education support networks, health care support networks. Of course, currently these networks include surveillance networks and digitial ownership rights management facilities.
That is an overview of what must be preserved, appropriated, or created over the next couple of decades and certainly on a scale to be able to support 11 billion people and a preserved biosphere both by the end of the century. That’s quite an 80-year transformation.
Here’s the part that gets at the revolution required. There will be no business or government budgets to do the real work of what needs to be done. None nationally in much of any nation. None at regional, provincial, or state levels. None at local levels. The balanced budget cult will ensure that.
One has to go out and just do it. If that thought doesn’t give you vertigo, it should because you’re missing the hugely difficult job ahead of all of us one way or the other. There are no political adults coming to save us. Of any party, nationality, or ideology. None. Ponder that a good while.
What’s say we just get to work. And then post of what seems to work.
Oh, yes, a few of us no doubt will find that keeping the current political system on life-support long enough to provide a chance of survival is their task. That’s their decision. It probably needs to be done. But there is too much sucking away of alternatives that we all have to watch carefully what is going on.
This is not a technocratic solution. It is in fact a band-aid to buy time to discover the action that delivers us from the political and economic cul-de-sac of warmaking and impoverishment that we find ourselve in. I have left out a huge amount–for example, the fact that our universities are now so corrupt that they are of little help as institutions in creating the alternatives. There are a whole new set of institutions that are required to transcend the current set of Westphalian governments interlinked through global institutions, trans-national corporations and their vendor and client vassals, hierarchical religions traditions of increasing fundamentalism, a corporate mediasphere. and the all-too-visible global university that serves all of them. I have no clue at all what these new economic, political, and cultural institutions might be except that all three involve grassroots participation that forms the basis of a more balanced and less exclusively economic social life.
Will promote this to front page tomorrow. Thanks TarheelDem.
Just to start the infrastructure institution brainstorm rolling, here are some local involvement ideas either to be the core group that ensures that it keeps going of the mass participation needed to make it effective:
Weekly or more frequently farmers markets–especially in food deserts
Stream monitoring, clean-up, environmental education, advocacy, and conservation groups
Free markets–as in goods and services gifted for free – yard sale items, crafts, yoga classes, musical performances, etc.
Self-help functional medicine clinics, pooling cash to get a functional medicine MD as an adviser.
Effective, private, and free social media and website support. There are a lot of open-source techie types already working on this task. Auditing and testing to ensure that it meets its claims is a key task.
Cooperative development of neighborhood wind farms. This one can get a little pricy without figuring a means of paying off the capital cost over time. And there are increasing local and state regulations aimed at protecting large private investor-owned utilities being put in place.
OK, there’s a start. Have at it.
Much I agree with here: but few of the Central Banks are anywhere close to Hayek’s playbook. The Austrians are appalled with Quantitative Easing in the US and Japan. The Europeans seem finally to be waking up.
None of this is to argue the response was big enough – it wasn’t. I agree with much here: but the Fed in particular has not been singing from Hayek’s playbook.
I don’t see massive investments in infrastructure to restimulate demand, increase unemployment, provide a foundation for activities that create prosperity within natural resource constraints, and tighten the labor market to shift the labor-capital split of gains from productivity. I see bankers still seeking austerity for austerity’s sake four years after they created the “new normal” of the Great Recession.
That said, the point of the diary is that local folks are effectively on their own. Waiting for policy changes will be too little, too late, and likely quicky reversed at the bankers’ first sniffles.
You mean “increase employment”, right?
This is where I think you’re too pessimistic, and you know you are, too, or you’d change that sig line. Government is a tool for popular mobilization, as Lincoln invented it with the “of/by/for the people” slogan. Things are getting better in the US right now, though the change may still be so slow it’s almost imperceptible, and they’re getting better because of you. And people like you in your generation who stay involved with politics even when it seems so hopeless it’s almost embarrassing.
What a great piece. Like some other commenters I find a lot of stuff I want to disagree with, but for now I just want to say that ironically, pissed off and half-despairing as you are, you fill me with hope.
Yes, you are right. Employment, whatever that quaint term means in a just-in-time, you’re-on-your-own economy.
The sig line expresses a reality that anyone wanting to work through electoral politics must deal with. Too few progressives and zero third parties yet understand how to do that math and win; so they wind up “sending a message”, which is just another way of losing and pretending that you have accomplished something. That, by the way, is one of two Karl Rove contributions to my strategic thinking: do the math (2012 he didn’t); hit them unexpectedly at their strength (I’m praying for Georgia and Kentucky this year; Eric Cantor seems to have had an unfortunate accident ;-).
Involvement in politics is not a choice. I learned that from my parents’ talking about the long agricultural depression of the 1920s, the Great Depression, and World War II. That generation read the newspaper daily and formed the audience for radio and TV network news during the Golden Age of broadcast journalism. The choice is whether to be conscious, active, and strategic in one’s involvement. And what your strategies of action are to be — inside or outside of the institutions, or both at the same time.
I report what I see and try to understand why our elected leaders do not seem to be living in a common reality with me and the ordinary people who are most of my friends. And I confess that I express my frustration with professional politicians and consultants not doing obvious fundamental politics but treating everything as a marketing and messaging exercise. (Curse Ronald Reagan for this; his communications team introduced this style. But Ike introduced marketing-type commercials. And the first election was swayed by jugs of rum at the courthouse.)
Yes, taking the ISIS bait and jumping in with both wings in Iraq and now Syria has made me pessimistic of late. And we lost Veterans for Peace and Afgan-Iraq veteran Jacob David George to terminal moral qualms that took the form of a PTSD suicide. Lots of good men and women have died for rotten policies over the past 70 years–after the end of “the War” as my parents called it. I keep thinking of the 25,000 good men that Richard Nixon killed just because he wanted to be President and get “peace with honor”.
And I’m saddened by how fast President Obama seems to have lost himself in the moral maelstrom of US national security politics–most disturbing, the unconstitutional assertion that Article II powers permit him to assassinate anyone, including Americans, at will just as long as he follows some secret “due process”-like procedure. And the similar assertion for indefinite detention. I never thought that at any point in my lifetime that I would hear such uncontested assertions of absolute Presidential power. And it wasn’t from Richard “If the President does it, it’s legal” Nixon or George W. “Insta-declassify” Bush.
And I am frustrated that Republican obstruction has become both a permanent reality for Republicans and a permanent excuse for Democrats.
And then I look to those points of hope for progressives during the Bush administration – Canada, Australia, New Zealand. And they and the UK are all going down the same road under the rubric of the “global war on terror”. And Europe has not reversed its policy of austerity that has caused the resurgence of, to not put a fine point on it, fascism and Nazism, the very tendencies that prolonged austerity in the US and the insanity of the open carry gun movement have brought us here. And I see the movie that my parents talked about rerunning.
The two things that give me a smidgen of hope are quote from Karl Marx and a quote from Mark Twain.
Karl Marx in The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napolean writes:
We could use a little farce this time around in the Middle East.
Mark Twain (actually I see the construction is by Joseph Anthony Wittreich and not Twain):
who goes on to say:
It is comforting to know that the while familiar, the movie might have a more congenial ending.
But we should be prepared and know our neighbors if that turns out not to be the case.
Alas, today’s young people are more interested in who is sleeping with whom and sending naked pictures of themselves around the internet. Their parents are interested in which millionaire athlete team is beating which millionaire athlete team. Only old fossils like you and I are interested in the sweep of human history.
Not the young people — and their parents and teachers — who are chaining themselves to a statue in the office of the mayor of Chicago in order to try to keep their school open.
Wow! I LIVE here and did not see that on TV news or the radio, even PROGRESSIVE Radio!
It’s like how they killed Occupy by news blackout.
Dyett HS in Bronzeville, as I remember. Wonder if the Defender has coverage. If not, the weeklies should have something.
As I remember, 11 adults and youth arrested, the chains cut, taken for booking, held and released with charges. Don’t know about court dates. Afterward, the CPS administration made some sort of changes in the direction that the parents were advocating.
As a species, we haven’t even come close to addressing the basic problems of human civilization itself, to say nothing of the horrible destruction gestating in our own time. It seems that the development of urban civilization was intrinsically related to the rise of massive inequality and organized warfare. We’ve had five thousand years as a species to deal with this, and little or no progress has been made, to put it mildly. Compelling arguments have been made that civilization actually vitiates cultural evolution, since ruling classes aren’t interested in developments which could threaten their stable rule, they are interested in accumulating wealth and dominating prostrate labor classes.
It’s probably a good general rule that, as long as the rich are getting richer, there is simply no energy in a society for it to significantly change. Society is turned over to the parasitic imperatives of a micro-class of super-wealthy. The fact that the rich are getting richer is then an immutable diagnostic of a society-wide illness and degeneration. By that measure (and there are others of course), our society has gotten very sick indeed in the last few decades.
I often wonder what could break the iron grip of hegemonic rule exercised by free-market fairy tales and relentlessly promoted class and ethnic hatred/fear in our country, perhaps all tied together by a worship of violence.
We are to the point of having to stop pondering what to do to break the grip of hegemonic rule and to the point of having to imagine, think through, and prepare for what to do when our city sells our water system out from under us or our school system starts closing “failing” schools.
If that’s not your situation now, it likely will be in a few years.
Because “with the war, we can’t afford anything else.”
I don’t agree with your picture of contemporary USA, but that’s neither here nor there. It’s not helpful – nor is it accurate- to view the previous 6000 plus years (development of cities, irrigation and writing happened simultaneously in Sumerian City States around 6000 yrs ago) as some kind of continuous development. There’s much to be learned by studying how earlier peoples went about resolving issues. The invention of cities – i.e. inventions that allowed for more complex social structure solved some problems, not least of which was undependable food supply. As far as warfare goes – I don’t think you would have wanted to be on the receiving end of conquest by the Assyrians. just sayin’.
I certainly agree with that. Good point.
My point of view of the rise of bureaucracy, urban infrastructure, and cities relies a lot on Lewis Mumford’s studies of technology and cities. And more recently, David Graeber’s Debt: The First 5000 Years.
The point of the first long bit is to emphasize that infrastructure should not be reduced to the technological infrastructure that economists often reduce it to. It includes much social organization and service infrastructure, the biosphere, and the long-term geophysical processes as well. And that human activity has reached a scale that not only does it affect the first two, it not endangers the biosphere’s services to human beings.
Also, I was not describing just the USA. Europe, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are right there with out and the intent of trade negotiations currently going on is the extend those same policies through mandatory arbitration to the entire world.
I’m not interested on being on the receiving end of conquest by anyone, quite frankly. I would prefer that the whole notion of conquest as a cultural form completely disappear. I’m definitely in the Clausewitz “war is politics by other means” camp and prefer the restoration of ordinary discursive politics.
thanks for your comment, actually I was replying to blindtrust9’s comment that struck me as highly reductive. I’m still at work right now, but looking forward to giving your post a careful reading later tonight- I perused it and perused the comments; I think you and I are very much on the same page on this and other issues, and I find it very exciting how you are expanding the definition of infra structure.
Haven’t read as thoroughly as I’d like, but I too think about these issues in some depth and want to contribute something that I think is important: I think, we have passed (or are passing) a crucial tipping point: the end of scarcity.
I’m not sure we will support violence just to boost our relative (social) status. Social violence (war, etc.) has gotten a lot of juice throughout our history as a sort of kill-or-be-killed proposition (often pretended as such, but at least in some cases fairly real).
If we can stop pretending that we have to have a system of organized slave labor (which is how I view things like capitalism) in order to maintain basic living standards, we’ll have achieved something grand.
Remember the power of projection-spotting: I suspect there’s a reason why every person in power preaches that we are in dire straits: they know perfectly well that we are not.
Loved this essay, and the many thoughtful comments!
Thanks for dropping by to comment.
The end of scarcity depends on supply and demand. The supply is finite, although ways to more effectively use what’s there are constantly being invented in nature and society. The change in demand is what produces the end of scarcity. The response to the powers-that-be to the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth report in the 1970s was to say “I want mine”, create the “entrepreneurial” culture of “Look Out for Number 1” and “Winning through Intimidation” and then rig the system to deliver for them and them alone.
That system has been biting us for the past decade and has not reduced the rate at which we burn through the supply of natural resources. Collectively altering the way we live could create an end to scarcity by just saying “Enough”. Too many Americans are already there; it’s just a matter of how to restyle that existence as an abundant alternative to being on the hamster wheel. When that happens massively, the frenzied marketing becomes ineffective, the shoddy goods and foods and service go unused, and a lot of other sleazebag corporations collapse from lack of revenue, forcing more people into the position of making the transition. And that is my scenario for how the end of scarcity comes about–and it must happen globally.
We’ll see how comforting that meme is, how inspiring of creativity, and how rapidly it can propagate.
I don’t see why it’s neither here nor there. I was speaking in deliberate generalities and abstractions. Obviously I’m not publishing history here. It’s a blog comment. Things are complicated but we still have to try to think about them. I wasn’t arguing for some kind of continuous development in civilization, just observing that the rise civilization, to my mind, appeared to create general problems at the species level which seem to have continued up to our time. I don’t know what the Assyrians have to do with that.
Yes, I apologize for my oblique comment. more later today (big work day). I appreciate your reply.
The point you make – that we need to discuss, or have a way to discuss and understand what it means to be civilization, what it means to be a society I would add , I agree with you, it is the central issue. What I was disagreeing with, however, and I apologize for my oblique and rude reply, is that nothing has changed in 5000 years, or even that the more developed institutions of society have made things worse. The more history you read the more you’ll see the tremendous diversity in human culture – if you want to look at “better” or “worse” you’ll see some things are better, some worse, though I prefer to look at history as a resource to understand the diversity of human achievements and possibilities (and mistakes). That’s what I was trying to say. Whether elites become entrenched and resist change – well there’s all kinds of social theory and societies about that and how change does/ can come about, and cultures differ so whether a theory is valid or not is another point of discussion. As far as the Assyrians go, warfare was pretty grim then, so one might be able to say things are “better” if marginally as far as war goes, or maybe not so bad.
anyway, for my part, glad to see you in the commentariat and I apologize for reply.
I guess, in light of my comment to Tarheel Dem, I should add that one thing we see today, what you refer to as “as a species … addressing the .. human civilization itself” – is strictly pertinent to today’s USA, not generally true of other cultures and other periods of history; and that is because of erosion of the public sphere of discussion – an accomplishment set in motion in Reagan’s time to erode/ eliminate public discussion at all actually to vilify the public sphere. This discussion about civilization that you mention should take place and luckily the blogosphere gives us a starting point for it.
Thanks for the thoughtful piece. However: Accommodate the needs of 11b people? On this planet which is straining under the weight already of a mere 7b (officially) people?
Doesn’t it make more sense — difficult though it will be — to be thinking in terms of organizing to encourage the population-dense and resource-wasting countries of the world to begin enacting stringent population control measures along with the badly needed clean energy programs?
Across-the-board, coordinated worldwide population-control measures — sufficient to reach zero or negative growth — is a massive and hugely difficult undertaking, but a necessary one. We should be putting our organizational energies in that direction, along with encouraging our govts to promote clean energy, along with encouraging them to stop big-footing it militarily abroad, as we deal currently with the best way to handle the religious extremist forces our stupid policies have wrought.
Reference: The Guardian report of the UN report World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise.
That projection is possibly optimistic.
Marie, I have the impression this study totally dismisses the possibilities of economic growth>wider education>women’s empowerment because it hasn’t happened in Nigeria (or India) yet. But it has happened in some places you might think unpromising, like Egypt and Algeria and Mexico and South Africa, all down way below 2%. The projection could be pessimistic as well.
The factors you list are the ones population demographers have been using for a generation to inform that world that population growth won’t be a problem in the future. This study went back and took another look and came up with “oh, shit!” The two big brakes over this time have been China’s one-child policy and Japanese women becoming more than modern practically overnight. China is currently very concerned about its demographics — too many old people looking to be supported by too few young people and a significant male:female imbalance. Now China is considering significantly loosening its one-child policy.
Note: China only added 350 million to its population from 1980-2013, but its still 1,357 million. India increased from 715 million to 1,252 million during that same time period.
The US Department of Defense and other world militaries seemingly don’t think so.
The illusion that there is not enough to go around is only true at the wasteful consumption levels of the United States.
It is only the United States that seems squeamish about voluntary population control.
Yes, population reduction by wmd wars is a possibility, and more likely as the struggle over shrinking life-sustaining resources leads to still more geopolitical tensions.
As for overall population, taking an Ehrlichian attitude, I would imagine we’re currently overbooked on our planet by at least 5 billion, using the official total figure (which I suspect is a fair sized undercount). Half those currently alive we can’t feed or not nearly adequately, by any reasonable standard.
What’s the maximum population level you think the Earth can sustain? Or is there a limit?
Likely the human carrying capacity of the planet depends on the particular details of the biosphere that you assume. It seems to be much higher with interspersed woodlands and grasslands than it does with desert or extensive glaciation.
We are sitting at 7 billion-plus now. And it seems that distribution of resources is still more of an issue than carrying capacity.
About 40 years ago when some friends and I were discussing Ehrlich’s books, we did a quick estimation of the likely population in 2000 and came out with the 11 billion number. It is encouraging that that has now been pushed back to 2100 after 40 years of voluntary birth control work (and China’s involuntary “one spoiled male child” policy). The major block at the moment is the continue religious hysteria over the issue and the insistence on ignorance about sexuality.
Of course, there’s a limit to everything in the universe. And one of the interesting questions for human beings is “population of what?” At the moment we seem to be rapidly writing ourselves out of the history–either through the collapse of an environment suitable for large numbers of humans or the transhuman transformation into technology that Ray Kurzweill calls the “singularity”.
But the practical emergency that is on us are the cities with food deserts and large transportation costs for poor people to shop for food. The privatization of everything means that those who cannot afford much will be left completely out of anything approaching what Jefferson would recognize as a right to life (yes, even a slaveowner might be appalled). All while Mitt Romney and John McCain get another house or add a few cars or car elevators to their current ones.
There are students who need tutors everywhere in the US because of the massive failure of No Child Left Behind – Race to the Top to do anything but privatize public schools.
People in Detroit need inexpensive sources of drinkable water and tenant-operated gray-water systems.
This diary is not about abstractions. There are streams near where most people live. Even in cities you might be able to find them in piped or channelized forms that accelerate runoff and pollution from rooftops to waterways. There are ways to mitigate that building by building. Even with window boxes and plantings on balconies.
Homelessness is epidemic in most communities. In some communities, taking food to the homeless is illegal because the authorities want them to be forced to go some place else. That is denial, not dealing with the problem.
Thanks for this diary, TarheelDem. I look forward to reading it carefully and commenting – just want to add my thanks right now.
Really good, well thought out post.
A good post about the legal part of the social infrastructure that we too much take for granted: the rule of law.
Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Rule of Law Is Vastly Under-Priced
Why the wealthy should pay dramatically higher taxes.
Fascinating and constructive analysis. There are many things I especially like about what you write – maybe most of all the activist side , if we don’t do it, it’s not going to get done, and there is much we can do. I very much like your “inventory of one’s powers and limitations”.
Have you followed the work of Carne Ross?
https:/twitter.com/carneross
There’s some quite amazing developments in ag production, that progressive’s preconceptions and dogma prevent from seeing, imo anyway: I’m linking here to an amazing family ag endeavor, White Oak Farm, and I’m linking to the About page because I think you, as a southerner will see what I mean when I say there’s so much going on it’s difficult to grasp. Some amazing people doing some amazing things.
http://whiteoakpastures.com/page.asp?p_key=4691FA012D9D4506B81EBEA4B3DCB941
Settling in for another long day of work here but will add to my comment if
when I have time.
I messed up format.
https://twitter.com/carneross
In this area, there are quite a few range-fed multi-species meat animal farms that sell their products at local farmers markets. Also, zoning regulations in this area allow for within urban area agricultural zones. In Durham, property once owned by the local Coca-Cola bottler for a bottling plant expansion was never developed as bottling and canning plants consolidated. That land, within sight of the downtown, is a 200-acre functioning Angus beef cattle farm. Regulations need not be a barrier to developing alternative infrastructure.
The feedlot factory farms are the ones beginning to lose out.
I was hoping to gather some more local stories of what works.
I focused on food and water so much in part because food deserts and misuse of drinking water are such huge issues with cities all over this country and people are not yet up to speed with how fast this crisis is coming. And how quickly the phony solution of privatization can be shoved on people.
Infrastructure by being present all the time with no cash outlay at time of service allocates resources on the basis of the need for use. Markets allocate resources on the basis of the ability to pay at the time of service or the available credit to pay at some time in the future; that, almost by design, eliminates people from necessary services.
Some things cannot be decided by the market. Period. And for those things, communities have to figure out how to make sure that no one gets left out. That requires some hard thinking, trust, and community interaction. Those skills have withered in our workaholic, “bowling alone” culture.
Thanks for the links, Errol. Had not known of Carne Ross. I worked estensively in field organizing in SW Georgia in the 1970s. I’m glad there are still innovative folks there even if they frame it in traditional terms.
TarheelDem, this is my first post to this site. I am hoping you will clarify the phrase you used..
“the social creation of addictive behaviors”.
The context for my question is that this particular phrase appears in a list of proactive ideas, i.e., “examples of where edge thinking is”. Could you please elaborate? For example, as a loaded question, is religion a social creation of addictive behavior? Is a rave? Is participation in the arts?
Simply put, I am being slow and literal. But my first reading (because you used the term “social”), in context of a very provocative list for “edge thinking” was a happy ambiguity where social value might be found for the tendency of humans to expend creative energy that some communities might devalue as “addictive”, but might actually have some binding power in other communities.
Were you being paradoxical?
Anne Wilson Schaef, a clinical psychologist, wrote an number of books in the 1980s and 1990s dealing with the family dysfunctional roots of addictive behavior. Subsequent to that a lot of work has gone on about the adult children of alcoholics and other family-oriented studies. One of her books was When Society Becomes an Addict, which provided an extension of the dysfunctional family ideas she had worked on to how the consensus cultural way of running institutions was in fact creating the same sort of environment outside family life that dysfunctional families create within.
Religion can socially create addictive behavior. So can other social traditions and institutions.
For Schaef, “addictive behavior” has a very specific clinical meaning that includes interfering in the subjects freedom and choices.
I think that a conversation about what exactly “addictive behavior” that one wants society to circumscribe is exactly to the point of my dropping it into that list.
If there is a paradox, it might be in a very addiction-forming society (try workaholism) wanting to control addiction through criminalization and prison.