2014 – Historic Anger at Incumbents

Promoted by Steven D.

I appreciate the opportunity to post here.  This will be the start of a series over the next 5 days on 2014.  I think what I am going to show here is unique – I think many are missing the dynamic at play in 2014.   Because this stuff isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, I will promise to not bury the lead.  

Bottom line, the data on incumbents is rather amazing.  As the table below shows, the number of incumbents under 50 is unprecedented.  Candidates in what should be safe seats in places like Kansas and West Virginia and Oregon are under 50.  What does this mean?  In my opinion, it is a reflection of three things:

  1.  Disappointment with the economy, and a sense that neither party has a solution.
  2.  A sense that we will always be at War in the Middle East, and yet lack a real plan to get out.
  3.  A sense that government just doesn’t work, and that all politicians care about is winning.

In my view, the first of these is really critical.  I will show this in another post, but Obama by some measures should be doing better.  Job growth over the last 6 months has been good, unemployment claims are at near decades low and consumer sentiment has recovered. More on this later.

Let’s get to the data.  The table below shows every incumbent in Senate and Governor’s races since 1998.  The most incumbents under 50 at this point in any year was 2010.  THERE ARE MORE THAN TWICE AS MANY INCUMBENTS UNDER 50 NOW!

Does this mean these incumbents will lose? It depends. There was a time when pundits talked about the 50% rule: if a candidate was under 50% he was probably going to lose.  No one ever really studied this until Nate Silver, and I don’t think he has looked at it as it is presented in the table below.
 photo Incumb1_zps9ef3b186.gif

To understand this table you need to understand PVI.  PVI is basically a measure of how Republican or Democratic a state is.  If a state has a high PVI, it has a heavy partisan lean (think Vermont for Democrats and Utah for Republicans).  The intuition is that a Republican incumbent under 50 in a deep red state will probably win, but one in a Democratic State will lose.  As the table below shows, this is exactly what we find:
 photo Capture2_zpsdebb0ed2.gif

The table doesn’t make one optimistic about the Senate.  In fact, this was always going to be a tough one.  Here is a history of the number of Democratic Seats for this class of Senate seats:

1996 15 seats
2002 14 Seats
2008 12 Seats
2014 21 seats

Democrats typically win about 12 -15 seats of the ones up in 2014.  So the GOP SHOULD pick up a number of seats.  That they have not nailed down many of these seats actually tells you something about how badly damaged the GOP brand is.

Saturday Painting Palooza Vo.476

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the Cape May bungalow.  The photo that I am using is seen directly below.   I will be using my usual acrylics on a tiny 6 inch by 6 inch gallery-wrapped canvas.

When last seen, the painting appeared as it does in the photo directly below.

I’ve started to paint the body color of the house along with the details (doors and windows) on the porch.  The doors and windows will eventually also reflect the shady lighting made by the roof and awning, but that’s down the road a bit.  I’ve also added some green to the trees seen above the roof.  Now that most of the preliminary paint has been set down, I can start with some real definition for next week’s cycle.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have a more progress to show you next week.  See you then.

Earlier paintings in this series can be seen here.

Site Issues

Hi all. The site has been having some issues. I haven’t been able to connect to it, nor have others, but since it is up for me now, I thought I’d let you know we are doing what we can to make sure it stays up. If the site loads for you, great. Please comment on the front page posts and diaries if you can. – Steve

Iraqi Tribal Leaders Pledge March to Baghdad or Not?

Iraqi tribal leaders pledge to march to Baghdad
Via Reuters | Gulf News | Jul 16, 2014 |

AMMAN, Jordan – Sunni insurgents and tribal leaders said after a closed meeting they would keep fighting until they take over the Iraqi capital and bring down a U.S. imposed political order that brought Shi’ites to rule the country and marginalised them.

Several hundred tribal figures, representatives of Islamist insurgent groups, ex-army officers and former Baath party figures attended the meeting in the Jordanian capital.

Sunni cleric Abdul Malik Al-Saadi [sit-in demonstration in Ramadi Square – May 2013], who praised the “mujahideen” (holy warriors) leading the revolt, said tribes were the backbone of a broad based insurgency battling against Iraqi Shi’ite Islamist Prime Minister Nuri Maliki’s rule. He said these forces had now captured large parts of western and northern Iraq.

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Al Qaeda offshoot, is only a part of the uprising, the Sunni’s top religious figure said.

“This revolution is led by the sons of tribes who are leading it and the Islamic State is a small part of it,” said Al-Saadi, who led some of the mass peaceful protests in Iraq’s Sunni heartland in 2013 that called for an end to security abuses and perceived marginalisation and political exclusion.

Most Sunni figures said they were left with few alternatives but to fight Maliki who is now relying increasingly on Shiite militias such as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq they say are funded and armed by Iran in his battle against the rebellious governorates.

“We are now in a state of continued Jihad to end the remnants of the U.S. occupation and restore the rights of the Iraqi people,” said Abd al-Naser Al Janaby, a prominent Salafi cleric and politician and a leading supporter of the armed uprising. “We expect a new dawn for Iraq from this revolution.”

Reuters headline: Iraq Sunni insurgency seeks end to Shi’te political domination
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi | Reuters | Jul 16, 2014 7:01pm EDT |

Tip of the hat to somebody and Don Bacon @MoA

Iraqis hire DC consultant for autonomy push
By Megan R. Wilson | The Hill | Sept. 25, 2014 05:31 PM EDT |

A Sunni religious group has hired a Washington consulting firm to make the case for creating a new semi-independent region in Iraq.
Mark Alsalih began representing the Common Council of Iraqi and Arabic Tribes, which is run by Suleiman, over the summer. Alsalih told Al-Monitor last month that he had been trying to draw interest from officials in Obama administration about collaborating more closely with Iraqi and Syrian tribes.

“The U.S. needs to work hand in hand with the Sunnis that have the on-the-ground intel and that are being targeted by ISIS,” he told the publication. “The tribes can identify with great accuracy where ISIS is, who’s supporting them, how they’re getting their money and even where they sleep at night.”

FARA registration statement – July 18, 2014 [pdf]

Name of registrant: Mark K. Alsalih [LinkedIn]
Principal: Common Council of Iraqi and Arabic Tribes
Address: Hay Babel, Jadriyah #18  Baghdad Iraq [Embassy District]
State the nature of the business or activity of this foreign principal:

    The Council is a cooperative entity of willing members of the community that seek the development of security, prosperity and equal rights for all Iraqi citizens and children regardless of ethnicity or; religion. The council will seek the prevention of conflict and pursue peaceful resolution of disputes through civic engagement and creation of an environment to develop peace.

    The council rejects the use of violence and terrorism, and will use any legal means to combat both. We will assist the council and its decision makers by providing the skills, tools and access needed to create partners in peace. The council wants to develop a strong society and educational system for the future of Iraq and rebuild it after years of conflict and suffering through our work with the US government and others.

Signed by: H.E. Sheikh Ali Hatem Suleiman * GENERAL COMMITTEE OF IRAQI AND ARABIC TRIBES RAMADI, IRAQ

 « click for more info
Why Anbar's Sheikh Ali Hatem Sulaiman Joined Iraq's Protest Movement (Musings On Iraq)

US shuns tribal leaders who claim to have infiltrated IS

 

Iraqi Weekly Interviews Sheikh Ali Hatem al-Suleiman Of the Anbar Awakening
Musings On Iraq | Nov. 7, 2008 |

In mid-October 2008, the Iraqi weekly Niqash interviewed Sheikh Ali Hatem al-Suleiman. The Sheikh heads one of the two main factions that make-up the Anbar Awakening. Since the assassination of Sheikh Abdl Sattar Abu Risha, the founder of the Awakening, in September 2007, the movement has split into two groups who are still allied with each other. On the one hand there is the Awakening Conference of Iraq headed by Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, the brother of Sheikh Abu Risha who took over after his death. On the other is Suleiman’s the National Salvation Front. He also heads the al-Anbar Tribal Council.

Suleiman is a prominent figure in Anbar. He heads the Dulaim tribe, and his grandfather was once one of the most powerful sheikhs in Anbar. Suleiman hopes to restore his family’s standing. He is also aligned with Sheikh Hameed Farhan al-Hayes. Hayes is one of the more boisterous tribal leaders in the province. After splitting with the Anbar Salvation Council, Hayes formed his own Awakening movement, before joining with Suleiman. Together the two have been trying to supercede the Risha family, mostly through bold statements.

In August 2007 for example, Hayes offered to replace the boycotting Iraqi Accordance Front in Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s cabinet. In February 2008, Hayes and Suleiman announced that the Iraqi Islamic Party, which rules Anbar, had thirty days to leave Anbar or be attacked. In turn, the Islamic Party filed libel suits against the two, and arrest warrants were issued, but never served to them.

ISIL blew up tribal homes in Mosul, Anbar of leaders who refused to swear allegiance

Sadr Bloc Ends Parliament Boycott
By Oui | @BooMan | July 18, 2007 |

Oh Irony! Former Saddam loyalists in Anbar province are now our allies to fight the Al Qaeda led insurgency in the province. Another illustration Saddam and Al Qaeda weren’t congruous. These fighters are not Iraqi regular troops, but militants with US weapons and money with allegiance to local tribe leaders. The suspected The Sunni factions in Iraq are already supported with weapons and funds from their religious ally Saudi Arabia.

The political stalemate will continue because of the allegiance in the three regions of Kurds, Sunni and Shia seeking oil share and power. Senator Cantwell (D-Wa) just said the same in her statement on the Senate floor. “We are sending the wrong signal. Staying in Iraq in permanent bases. We are there to privatize Iraqi oil.” She also reminded the Senators of the Wolfowitz statements, Iraq oil revenues would fund the war effort in the first 2-3 years.  

Terror Group Al-Qaeda Is Spelled K-h-o-r-a-s-a-n In Syria

Khorasan pledge splits al-Qaeda
By Radwan Mortada | al-Akhbar | April 23, 2014 |

The global jihad movement has split in two. Members of al-Qaeda will now have to choose between two different emirs. The so-called “Khorasan pledge” was the final nail in the coffin of the reconciliation between al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The rift no longer pertains to Syria only, but has spread to the other arenas of global jihad.

Nine al-Qaeda emirs from Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran declared their allegiance to the new emir of the faithful, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – the head of ISIS – in what is being termed as the “Khorasan pledge.”  

    Signatories:

    •  Abu Ubaida Lebanese.
    •  Mohannad Abu Jordan.
    •  Abu Jarir northern (Abu Thaer).
    •  Abu al-Huda Sudanese.
    •  Abdul Aziz (brother of Sheikh Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi).
    •  Abdullah Punjabi.
    •  Abu Younis Kurdish.
    •  Abu Aisha Cordovan.
    •  Abu Musab solidarity.

    A copy of the statement to:
    Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Al-Qaeda in Somalia, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Brothers in the Mujahideen Shura Council in the environs of Jerusalem, Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus; And to all whom it may concern: jihadist factions in Muslim countries.

A few days later, ISIS spokesperson Mohammed al-Adnani declared that “al-Qaeda deviated from the rightful course,” indicating that “it is not a dispute about who to kill or who to give your allegiance. It is a question of religious practices being distorted and an approach veering off the right path.”

This is a turning point in the clash – currently limited to the Syrian arena – between Baghdadi and Ayman al-Zawahiri, threatening to create an open conflict throughout jihadist movement. The anticipated split had been declared by ISIS advisor Abu Ali al-Anbari. “Either we eliminate them or they will eliminate us,” he said in one of the reconciliation sessions, repeating the sentence three times.

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The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) Declares "Global Caliphate" on Ramadan (Credit Global Research)

The nine defected emirs’ declaration have put Baghdadi in a direct confrontation with current al-Qaeda leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar. They want to attack al-Qaeda’s leader, saying his rule was “a thing of the past and today’s triumphs are made by the soldiers of ISIS.”

Mullah Omar had been the emir of emirs of al-Qaeda, enjoying both Osama Bin Laden and Zawahiri’s allegiance. During his reign, Afghanistan was destroyed after he refused to deliver Bin Laden and others to the United States.

Al Qaeda renews its oath of allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah Omar

Al Qaeda published the first edition of a new online bulletin, “Al Nafir” (meaning “call to arms” or “call to mobilize”), on July 20. And the organization uses the inaugural issue to publicly renew its oath of allegiance to Taliban emir Mullah Omar.

“The first edition begins by renewing the pledge of allegiance to [the] Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid, may Allah preserve him, and confirming that al Qaeda and its branches everywhere are soldiers among his soldiers,” the newsletter reads, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. Al Qaeda goes on to say that it is fighting “under his victorious banner” to restore control over a broad swath of territory “to the coming State of the Caliphate.”

Suspected Taliban fighters loyal to al-Baghdadi and the Islamic State?
Taliban behead 12 civilians in Afghan Ghazni province – Sept. 25, 2014
Taliban truck bombs kill 33 people in central Afghanistan – Sept. 4, 2014
Taliban attack on Afghan intelligence agency in Jalalabad leaves 13 dead and many wounded (video) – Aug. 30, 2014
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan formed a five-member commission which will be known as the Shura Muraqba – 2012

US Treasury linking Khorasan Group to Iranian backers, here we go again!

Cont’d below the fold …

Is the Obama administration using the Khorasan designation to smear Iran by implying the Khorasan leadership facilitates money transfers to both Iranian extremists and Al-Qaeda groups in Syria fighting Bashar al-Assad? Get real, who is to believe this utter bs. Is the White House feeding the Clarion Project or perhaps the Clarion Project is tipping off the White House who to fear in the War On Terror – Phase II.

U.S. Links Iran to Both Al-Qaeda and Taliban Terrorists | The Clarion Project |
Both AIC and the Clarion Project share anti-Muslim donors, including Sheldon Adelson

A Terror Cell That Avoided the Spotlight
By Mark Mazzetti | NY Times | Sept. 24, 2014 | plus VIDEO |

Obama administration officials for years have boasted that the C.I.A.’s campaign of drone strikes in Pakistan has devastated Al Qaeda’s apparatus there, but the emergence of the Khorasan Group in Syria appears to indicate that Mr. Zawahri’s authority and influence, however symbolic, endure in some corners of the universe of militant organizations.

Besides Mr. Fadhli, who was once one of Bin Laden’s close advisers and who according to the United Nations once fought against the Russian government in Chechnya, another top member of the Khorasan Group is believed to be Abdul Mohsen Abdullah Ibrahim al-Sharikh, a Saudi who also arrived in Syria in 2013. In August, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mr. Sharikh, describing him as one of the Nusra Front’s “top strategists.”

Mr. Sharikh and Mr. Fadhli were once part of a cadre of Qaeda operatives living in Iran, facilitating the flow of money, weapons and fighters that moved from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan to Iraq. Many senior Qaeda operatives fled Afghanistan to Iran after the American war in Afghanistan began in 2001, and the exact circumstances of the Qaeda group in Iran have been one of the mysteries of the post-Sept. 11 period.

    Al-Fadhli is a veteran al-Qa’ida operative who has been active within the terrorist network for years.  Treasury previously designated al-Fadhli pursuant to  E.O. 13224 in February 2005 for providing financial and material support to the al-Zarqawi Network and al-Qa’ida. At that time, al-Fadhli was considered an al-Qa’ida leader in the Gulf and provided support to Iraq-based fighters for attacks against U.S. and multinational forces.  Al-Fadhli was also considered a major facilitator for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and prior to that was involved in several terrorist attacks that took place in October 2002 including the attacks on the French ship MV Limburg and against U.S. Marines on Faylaka Island in Kuwait.

    Al-Fadhli began working with al-Qa’ida’s Iran-based facilitation network in 2009 and was later arrested by the Iranians.  He was subsequently released by the Iranians in 2011 and went on to assume the leadership of the facilitation network from Yasin al-Suri later that year.

Iran’s government said the militants were living under house arrest, and American intelligence agencies do not believe that Iran — a Shiite-majority country — ever considered an alliance with a Sunni terrorist network. Starting at the end of the last decade, the Qaeda operatives began leaving Iran for Pakistan, Afghanistan and elsewhere. One of them, Bin Laden’s son Saad, was killed in a C.I.A. drone strike in Pakistan in 2009.

Others went farther afield — to the war in Syria that erupted in 2011 and that has since become the epicenter of the jihadist world.

Treasury Targets Networks Linked To Iran – Feb. 6, 2014

DoD Pentagon Press Briefing on Operations in Syria by Lt. Gen. Mayville | Transcript |

In terms of the Khorasan group, which is a network of seasoned Al Qaida veterans, these strikes were undertaken to disrupt imminent attack plotting against the United States and western targets. These targets have established a safe haven in Syria to plan external attacks, construct and test improvised explosive devices, and recruit westerners to conduct operations. The United States took action to protect our interests and to remove their capability to act.

Coalition strikes targeted ISIL training camps, headquarters, command and control facilities, logistical nodes, armored vehicles and leadership.

Lt. Gen. William Mayville: U.S. military forces also executed unilateral precision strikes against the Khorasan Group, an A.Q.-affiliated terrorist organization located in northwest Syria. The intelligence reports indicated that the Khorasan Group was in the final stages of plans to execute major attacks against Western targets and potentially the U.S. homeland.

Last night’s strikes were organized in three waves. The first wave began around midnight in Syria, or 8:30 Eastern Standard Time. I draw your attention to the map. The first slide, please.

In the first wave strikes, the USS Arleigh Burke in the Red Sea and the USS Philippine Sea in the northern Arabian Gulf launched more than 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles in eastern and northern Syria. As you look at that slide, it is the target area around Aleppo and Ar-Raqqah.

The majority of the Tomahawk strikes were against Khorasan Group compounds, their manufacturing workshops and training camps.

DoD Briefing On Strikes In Syria | Pentagon |

The War Machine
By John Cassidy | The Nation | Sept. 24, 2014

An alternative interpretation is that Obama may well believe everything he says about the dangers ISIS presents, but he’s also acting politically in the run-up to the midterms. Having spent much of his tenure resisting calls for military interventions and articulating a cautious realism about America’s power to dictate events in the Middle East and elsewhere, he has thrown up his hands and given in to the war party.

Versions of this view are percolating on the left and the right. In a piece at the Washington Post, Katrina vanden Heuvel, the editor of The Nation, accused Obama of “surrendering to three forces”: a media “lathered into war fever,” a group of liberal interventionists in his own party, and “the mindless bellicosity of his opposition.” Andrew Sullivan, despairing of a President he has for the most part vigorously supported, writes, “He has folded–and you can see he knows it by the wan, listless look on his face. His presidency may well now be consumed by this new war and be judged by it–just like his predecessor’s. And all because when Americans are faced with even the slightest possibility of future terror, they shit their pants and run to daddy.”

Only Obama knows for sure what his real motivations are. In all probability, he sincerely believes that the attack on ISIS is consistent with the principles he has espoused all along. As he pointed out in his 2009 Nobel Prize speech, he is not a pacifist but a skeptic. He believes that some wars are just and justified. “I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people,” he said in Stockholm. “For make no mistake: Evil does exist in the world…. To say that force may sometimes be necessary is not a call to cynicism — it is a recognition of history; the imperfections of man and the limits of reason.”

Did Obama offer Assad’s head on a platter to Saudi King Abdullah?

A Look Inside The Secret Deal With Saudi Arabia That Unleashed The Syrian Bombing

When Mr. Kerry touched down in Jeddah to meet with King Abdullah on Sept. 11, he didn’t know for sure what else the Saudis were prepared to do. The Saudis had informed their American counterparts before the visit that they would be ready to commit air power–but only if they were convinced the Americans were serious about a sustained effort in Syria. The Saudis, for their part, weren’t sure how far Mr. Obama would be willing to go, according to diplomats.

 « click for more info
Qatar has spent as much as $3bn supporting the rebellion in Syria to overthrow Assad, Prince Bandar coordinated the Sunni fighters. (Photo: Zero Hedge)

Meet Saudi Arabia’s Bandar bin Sultan: The Puppetmaster Behind The Syrian War – August 2013

Bandar said that the matter is not limited to the kingdom and that some countries have overstepped the roles drawn for them, such as Qatar and Turkey. He added, “We said so directly to the Qataris and to the Turks. We rejected their unlimited support to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere. The Turks’ role today has become similar to Pakistan’s role in the Afghan war. We do not favor extremist religious regimes, and we wish to establish moderate regimes in the region.

Cognitive dissonance

According to today’s editorial in the New York Times,

By any measure, the nearly-six-year tenure of Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. has been one of the most consequential in United States history…. It is hard to imagine that anyone who could make it through the current Senate would have an impact comparable to Mr. Holder’s.

As the first African-American to serve as the nation’s top law enforcement official, Mr. Holder broke ground the moment he took office. In a position that rarely rewards boldness — and in the face of a frequently hostile Congress — Mr. Holder has continued to stake out strong and laudable legal positions on many of the most contested issues of our time.

But on the other hand

Mr. Holder’s legacy…. will also be defined by deeply harmful actions — and failures to act — involving issues of national importance.

Does anybody else get the whiplash effect from the violence of this type of treatment, of Holder and of course Obama as well?

It’s not like “Bush was a terrible president and a sociopath but I’d like to have a beer with him” (I wouldn’t, even if the beer included alcohol), or “Danton may have been personally corrupt but he was a brilliant and generous revolutionary” (I don’t even see a contradiction, just some messy humanity). It’s more like a contradiction in my understanding of human psychology. The two Holders of the Times’s formulation, which we’re seeing all over the place, are two or maybe three different people, a vital civil rights hero and an extreme civil liberties villain and a corporate tool to boot.

The corporate tool part doesn’t bother me so much, because it’s based on unrealistic Green Lantern expectations. Really, Holder didn’t bust any of the criminals of the 2007 financial horrors? When in human history have those guys ever been punished for anything? But the fines Holder has imposed on Citigroup and Bank of America and BP and so on are really extraordinary and unprecedented, so just shut up.

It’s the civil liberties aspect, the near-jailings of Thomas Drake and James Rosen and James Risen and actual jailing of John Kiriakou and the ghastly Barron memo showing why it’s legal to kill Anwar al-Aulaqi. And whatever it is the NSA has been doing since they stopped doing what we know they were doing in 2006. I don’t really believe the Greenwaldian prosecution, and I don’t really believe the defense either, even when I make it up myself.

I do think, though, that the journalists are doing a really bad job, and doing it especially at the Times and the Wapo as some kind of overcompensation for their dreadful failings of 2001 to 2008.

Cross-posted at The Rectification of Names.

Infrastructure: The Current Revolution

Promoted by Steven D. You guys know TarheelDem and how brilliant are his comments. He has stepped up big time to help out Martin, and this is a great piece, an essay that should be in a national publication, in my opinion. Yes it is long, but please do yourself and the site a favor and read this post, and leave a comment. I shortened the original title a little to make sure the comments would post. Thank-you. Steve

Regardless of the outcome of the US election, any elections in Europe, Australia, New Zealand–or even India, Pakistan, and China, the Washington consensus and neoliberal capitalism prevail as the current imagination of the global economy.   Global climate change is occurring with zero response from the people who have the power and resources that could mitigate or even reverse this fossil-fuel-caused climate trend.  Indeed spending the natural savings accout of environmental services, natural materials (non-renewable and renewable), and fossil fuels seems to be accelerated in one vast binge of “Drill, baby, drill.  Mine, baby, mine.  Burn, baby, burn.” consumption constrained only by the lower consumer demand that results from the mass impoverishment of ordinary people around the world.  Privatization of infrastructure continues to be the policy direction of US Democrats and Republicans, European conservatives, social democrats, and socialists and global institutions are being rigged to force the privatization of health care systems, transportation systems, water systems, sanitation systems, education systems, and even income security systems in every country of the world.  Whether pending international agreements to lock this system down are signed, ratified and implemented, these agreements — Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Area (TAFTA), and redundant systems of interlocking bilateral free trade agreements — a lot of their provisions will be the operating assumptions of the world’s finance ministers and governments.  Clearly the emphasis is to continue to shortchange public infrastructure maintenance and privatize the infrastructure assets.

(keep reading below the fold)

At the same time, citizens of the world’s countries are subsidizing $1.8 trillion (with a “T”) in military spending.  At best, military spending is a waste of natural and human resources justified by potential failures of political processes.  At worst, military spending is the active destructions of massive amounts of infrastructure and the polluting of environments with unexploded ordnance, industrial chemicals, land mines, anti-personnel mines, nuclear waste, and potential biological hazards.

And the means of social control and suppression of investigation and dissent are growing in every country, but most alarming in the English-speaking countries that long expressed pride in the English Magna Carta, various bills of rights, and, until recently, the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights.  Australia has recently passed an draconian surveillance and journalist prosecution law.  In the US, the quaint Espionage Act of 1917 has been used to prosecute those who leak classified information that the the Obama administration does not want leaked (through instant declassification) and now also journalists who report that leaked information in a responsible manner to the public.  The US National Security Agency of the US Department of Defense intends to collect all information on everyone, including US citizens, the US Bill of Rights notwithstanding.   The US Constitution has been replaced with 225 years of court precedents that in some sense stand the intent of that document on its head, privileging corporate institutions over individuals and enshrining money as a form of speech.  And in country after country, police forces that previously have not been militarized now are.  And in the United States there are now more firearms in circulation than there are people in the population even as the local police forces in the US increase the deadliness of their SWAT tactics and militarize their equipment.  And in the United States the Department of Homeland Security has created coordination among law enforcement agencies in a way that mimics the national police forces of many totalitarian nations.  And has built a police culture of impunity and prejudice that provides a uniform means of suppression of dissent and of minority populations almost without regard to where in the United States you go.  Even the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has followed this trend.

Protest now that isn’t ignored is violently suppressed while the commercial media and also the public media threatened with privatization ignore or malign the protesters who are treated violently by the authorities.  The poster child for this phenomenon is the trial of Cecily McMillan.  And of course, there is no longer redress in most courts. The police forces, the media, the court system are all part of the infrastructure.

Here is the etymology of infrastructure just for reference:

Infrastructure
1. An underlying base or foundation especially for an organization or system
2.The basic facilities, services and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society

It reportedly dates from military uses in the 1890s, appropriated by economists and bureaucrats during the 20th century for stuff like communications and transportation systems.

And here is the ancient root of the word wealth that is combined in the word commonwealth to designate the society-wide sphere of activity.

weal
“well-being,” from Old English wela “wealth,” in late Old English also “welfare, well-being,” from West Germanic *welon-, from PIE root *wel- (2) “to wish, will” (see will (v.)). Related to well (adv.).

The word conflates contemporary ideas of well-being (economic, social, cultural) and will (political, cultural).

My argument hereafter is that infrastructure is exactly and precisely what people in the 17th and 18th century understood by commonwealth and embraced what people in the early 19th century meant by internal improvements.  And until Karl Marx (or was that Friedrich Hayek) came along they were seen as normal functions of government.  But no longer in the 21st century.  Even the Democratic President of the United States prefers the private before the commonwealth as do most Democrats in Congress.  Even the Canadian Parliament, the UK Parliament, and the French President from the Socialist Party no less are on the same page as the disciples of Hayek — because all of their central banks are.

Ordinary people are increasingly shut out of the institutions that might secure life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

So what to do?  

First and individual inventory of one’s powers and limitations.  People differ in their capacity for processing information, the current buzzword is attention bandwidth.  They differ in stamina, commonly called energy.  They differ in the size, scope, diversity, and influence of their social networks.  What an individual does is an autonomous personal decision that it will be hard for people around them not to second-guess.  Resisting the temptation to second-guess other people’s decisions is probably the best first thing to do.  It’s the people who show up, not the ones who don’t that you can work along with.  And the crap has gone on for so long that the temptation not to show up is still very strong.  One does what one can.   Then network and act.  The group that intends an activity or action carries it through; it either works or it doesn’t.  Then that group of a different network of people carries out another activity.   It’s pretty commonplace really.  Not the sort of thing to get those romantic revolutionary feelings reminiscent of 1789 or 1848 really going.   When the state is smashing itself through privatization, it’s time to move on to something different.

The revolution is this very humbling task: Create the commonwealth for a global population scheduled to reach 11 billion by 2100 and do everything possible to see that every human being has the possibility of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness within it.  There are governance and culture and resources tasks within that, but the topic of this post is infrastructure, especially what needs to happens to cushion against the potential risk of the imminent collapse of the current system of global transnational capitalism and US military dominance.  This generation doesn’t have to accomplish the entire revolution, just the first steps.

Like saying clearly what exactly it is that constitutes the world turned upside down.  Before the triumph of the 99% over their 1% masters, there is a more fundamental turning upside down.  That is the perspective that we do not dominate the earth; it allows us to exist despite our follies.  The planetary ecosystem accomplishes much of the services and provides all of the materials for human existence that we need to understand  so as not to interrupt its functioning.  And act to restore its functioning where it has been interrupted.  The longest term process is the rock cycle, in which surface rocks are dragged into the mantle through subduction zones, remelted and extruded out as reprocessed minerals and rocks in the spreading of rift valley ridges.  I used to think that this process was over such a long term and so large in scale that human activity couldn’t possible ever interrupt this grandest of garbage services — old rocks for new.  Some folks need to investigate this from the perspective of what possibly could go wrong, especially what sorts of human engineering could dramatically screw this up.

Then there’s the water and sediment cycle.  Water evaporates and forms clouds that get saturated to the point that rain falls and over time washes mineral crystals out by dissolving more soluble rocks.  Over many evaporation cycles, those dissolved minerals and suspended less soluble minerals scour the rocks they run downstream over and eventually settle out as sediment sand, silts, and clays.    Those sedimentary rocks in turn become rocks over which water flows, dissolving them back into the mineral suspensions and solutions.  Here is where the manmade environment has created large problems from erosion and siltation of strreams.   Building projects that mitigate the effects of impervious surfaces and reducing the amount of impervious surfaces restores the better functioning of this part of the infrastructure.  Involved in this is restoration of wetlands, well-though-out dam removal, and recycling and reprocessing of already mined materials.

Then there is the web of soil, plant, and animal life — those things popularly thought of as the ecology, the biosphere.  Topsoil loss is epidemic in the world.  Cultivation of plants whose sole function is the replace deep layers of topsoil if replicable in enough places is a revolutionary act.  Reading narratives of travel and discovery often strikes one with how much the past 500 years of human action and global capitalism have destroyed and how fast the destruction is now moving.  There is Kansas; there is Syria; there is Haiti; there is Angola.  There is an immense amount of work to be done here.  There is an immense amount yet to learn.  There is a huge body of literature that can inform these efforts that has not yet been properly indexed and made available for rapid search.  There are likely old books not yet scanned, and thus widely available, that could provide historical descriptions and insights about local ecologies.  And then there is the development of best practices of mitigation tailored for each local area.

Then there is the huge network of human society with its mental maps of social organization and cultural expectations and symbols, and its activities making things, processing information, providing services, communicating, and coordinating.  That it is an emergent activity of human life is evident from the failure of all attempts to design it or bring it under the control of a logical system.  It fails to function when there is physical disorder, enforced idleness, epidemic ignorance, addictive behaviors, and interpersonal dysfunction.  This is the area of infrastructure most a risk from the current rush to privatization; under privatization, the functions to deal with preserving the social network just completely disappear for everyone.  What is required to support this network of interaction is not completely understood; there are many tasks in developing that understanding.  Here are some examples of where some edge thinking is: functional medicine, which integrates conventional clinical practice with nutrition, exercise, deep understanding of biochemical physiology, yoga, acupuncture, and meditation to provide a state of health;  the social creation of addictive behaviors; compilation of effective self-management practices to get tasks done; conflict negotiation; facilitation of deliberative processes so as not to bias the process; self-directed education; post-factory public education; reimagining work so that unemployment is no longer possible as a category.  This list can run on an on.  There are a large number of people working on many different innovative ways to deal with the issues here.

The next level is the technosphere, those global networks of human technology that we typically think of as being the entire infrastructure.  Proceeding from the oldest technology to the most recent, there are plant identification and foraging practices and sharing, animal hunting and fishing practices and tools, agricultural systems, water transportation systems, water systems, transportation routes and networks, communication networks, sanitation systems, mechanical power systems, electric power systems, energy generation and production systems, electric communication systems, air transportation systems, electronic communications systems, data processing systems, information processing systems, data sharing networks, information sharing networks, global interoperative intercommunicating  networks, archival storage networks, business support networks, education support networks, health care support networks.  Of course, currently these networks include surveillance networks and digitial ownership rights management facilities.

That is an overview of what must be preserved, appropriated, or created over the next couple of decades and certainly on a scale to be able to  support 11 billion people and a preserved biosphere both by the end of the century.  That’s quite an 80-year transformation.

Here’s the part that gets at the revolution required.  There will be no business or government budgets to do the real work of what needs to be done.  None nationally in much of any nation.  None at regional, provincial, or state levels.  None at local levels.  The balanced budget cult will ensure that.

One has to go out and just do it.  If that thought doesn’t give you vertigo, it should because you’re missing the hugely difficult job ahead of all of us one way or the other.   There are no political adults coming to save us.  Of any party, nationality, or ideology.  None.  Ponder that a good while.

What’s say we just get to work.  And then post of what seems to work.

Oh, yes, a few of us no doubt will find that keeping the current political system on life-support long enough to provide a chance of survival is their task.  That’s their decision.  It probably needs to be done.  But there is too much sucking away of alternatives that we all have to watch carefully what is going on.

This is not a technocratic solution.  It is in fact a band-aid to buy time to discover the action that delivers us from the political and economic cul-de-sac of warmaking and impoverishment that we find ourselve in.  I have left out a huge amount–for example, the fact that our universities are now so corrupt that they are of little help as institutions in creating the alternatives.  There are a whole new set of institutions that are required to transcend the current set of Westphalian governments interlinked through global institutions, trans-national corporations and their vendor and client vassals, hierarchical religions traditions of increasing fundamentalism, a corporate mediasphere. and the all-too-visible global university that serves all of them.  I have no clue at all what these new economic, political, and cultural institutions might be except that all three involve grassroots participation that forms the basis of a more balanced and less exclusively economic social life.

Hillary Clinton Loses

No, I’m not making a prediction. She hasn’t lost the nomination battle for 2016, not yet anyway. However what she did do today, or what I should more accurately say, is she lost my respect. Back in 2011, at a speech she, in her capacity as Secretary of State, was giving for international internet freedom, a worthy cause. During the speech, Ray McGovern, a retired CIA agent who became a political activist against the wars fought in our name in the Middle east, stood up and tuned his back on her, a silent form of protest. For that he was arrested for disorderly conduct. From the transcript of the Democracy NOW broadcast about the incident:

RAY McGOVERN: Well, I was pounced upon. I was blindsided, really. I was looking straight to the back, minding my own business, the only offense being standing up when everyone else was sitting down. And without any warning, I was pounced upon by and what I call large-manhandled by a fellow who looked like an NFL football player in plain dress. I don’t know who he was. That’s why you hear me screaming, “Who are you? Who are you?” I never did get the answer to that. So it was really quite abrupt, quite violent. […]

[T]hey put two sets of handcuffs on me very roughly. They were the iron or the steel handcuffs. They dug into my wrists. Well, you could see some of the stuff right here. And they put it behind my back, of course, and I started bleeding profusely over my pants. We have the pants; they’re full of blood. When somebody said, “Is that his blood?” one of the cops said, “No, no, I pricked my finger.” Right.

Now that was bad enough, violating his 1st amendment right to dissent, and eventually the charges against him were dropped. But what followed next was much worse. From the lawsuit filed by McGovern against the US State Department:

The complaint continues: [After McGovern’s arrest]”The Department of State then opened an investigation into Plaintiff McGovern, including specifically his lawful, protected political beliefs, activities, statements and associations which it kept open for nearly seven months, despite all charges having been dropped against Mr. McGovern and despite having determined that Mr. McGovern was engaged in no criminal activity.”

As the complaint states: “The Department of State issued a Be On The Lookout Alert (‘BOLO Alert’) for the then- 71-year-old McGOVERN which described his ‘considerable amount of political activism, primarily anti-war,’ displayed his picture and directed law enforcement that if Mr. McGOVERN was encountered, ‘USE CAUTION, stop’ and question him and contact the Department of State Diplomatic Security Command Center.”

That is the type of thing one would expect of a person who was suspected of committing violent acts of terrorism, or of making threats against the US government or its officials, not an antiwar activist who served in the military – the Army – and then the CIA. All he did was turn his back on Hillary Clinton and he was arrested in a brutal fashion, and then a political vendetta was carried out against him. A BOLO Alert is no small matter. Any trigger happy police officer or law enforcement official who saw him was required to stop, treat him as a dangerous individual, and immediately contact the Security apparatus at the State Department. That would scare the hell out of me if my name ever got put on such a list.

Of course, McGovern was never officially informed of the order, but his encounters with law enforcement must have led him to suspect that he was on some sort of government watch list. Ultimately, it took a Freedom of Information Act request to discover this wrongful action by our government.

McGovern was targeted by the State Department because he turned his back on Hillary Clinton, nothing more. Luckily, we have some good news. The Judge in his case ruled in McGovern’s favor and issued an injunction requiring the government to remove him from the BOLO watch list.

The PCJF filed a civil rights lawsuit on behalf of Mr. McGovern challenging the arrest and brutality, and seeking an injunction against the State Department related to its issuing a “Be On the Look-Out” (BOLO) alert against Mr. McGovern which directed agents to stop and question him on sight.

We have obtained the relief sought in the litigation against the Department of State and confirmed that the BOLO alert is now rescinded and that the U.S. State Department has advised other law enforcement that it is non-operational.

The reasons cited for issuing a BOLO alert against Ray included his “political activism, primarily anti-war” — a clearly unconstitutional basis. […]

The PCJF discovered the unconstitutional BOLO alert issued by the State Department through a Freedom of Information Act demand, and filed a lawsuit, pro bono, on Mr. McGovern’s behalf earlier this year.

What Senator Clinton should do is issue an apology to Mr. McGovern. I don’t care if she had direct knowledge of this action by her subordinates, or not. She was in charge of the State Department and she bears the ultimate responsibility for what was done to Ray McGovern, and she should be held accountable for what happened to him on her watch. The least she can do is take responsibility and issue an apology. I don’t expect that to happen, but until she does, I will not support her run for the Presidency should she declare herself a candidate.

Update: For the record, not only would it be the right thing to do, I believe it would be the politically smart move as well.

An Apology (Update of last night’s post)

UPDATE for the Morning: After some thought, and a review of Eric Holder’s record, I realize I was too harsh about his record in my post yesterday. All things considered, he has been one of the better Attorney Generals who has served in my lifetime.

Is his record perfect? No. Far from it. But in retrospect, he has been fighting a difficult rearguard action against attempts to weaken civil rights and voting rights, and he has been a staunch advocate for the legal rights of minorities and the LGBT community. He also did an admirable job in cleaning up what a very corrupt department left to him by his predecessors from the Bush administration, Alberto Gonzales and John Ashcroft.

He still has his flaws (and I still disagree with many of the administration’s policies he implemented), but what political figure does not? I tend to expect too much of Democratic officials, forgetting the limitations and constraints, political and bureaucratic, with which they are forced to contend. In the face of often vicious and racist attacks from those on the right, he defended myself and his record with great conviction and far more civility than I would have demonstrated had I been the object of the kind of ad hominem attacks and vile hate speech he faced on a daily basis.

As for me personally, I apologize for my snippy and condescending remarks in the comment thread of the Holder post. I should have been better than that. I’m sorry.

I am a bit under the weather, so I am going back to bed, but I hope those who did not see this post last night read it in its entirety. I still have no news to report on Booman this morning, unfortunately.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Hi people.

For those who have expressed concern, I don’t have anything about Booman’s health status. I really wish that I did. I figure when Cabin Girl (Martin’s wife and member here) wants to let us all know she will likely post something herself telling everyone. Until then I am as in the dark as you. I figure its pretty serious whatever it is.

Second, please keep posting diaries, those who write. I need them. I am a bit under the weather myself, as I’m taking corticosteroids for a flare up of the symptoms I get from my my own autoimmune disorder TRAPS (Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Cell Associated Periodic Syndrome). You can google TRAPS disease if you’re curious. I’ve written about it before here, but a lot of those stories were written several years ago, and I am too tired and worn down to go looking for the links.

A little info about me for those who do not know much about me, as I have been an infrequent poster here and elsewhere for several years and newer members might not know. I just turned 58 this month, and yes I am white. I came out as a Bisexual here online about two years ago. However, I’m married to my beautiful wife and have been faithful to her. She’s a pancreatic cancer survivor who suffered brain damage (particularly to the neurons that connect the hemispheres of her brain) from chemotherapy, which yes, has been confirmed by the doctors and by medical research done regarding the specific chemo drug she took. But she’s alive, and working very hard to rebuild her neural connections anyway she can. She’s the toughest, strongest person I know.

There are a lot of you I don’t know that well, and I have never been as active in the comment threads here as Martin, even in my own posts when I posted here every day. So with a few exceptions, I do not know what your lives are like or much about you. I may say something that offends you because of who I am, and I may be very be wrong at times and fail to realize that fact. I will do my best to apologize when that happens. I’m as subject to my own biases and blind spots as anyone else, but I do try to recognize when I’ve made a mistake. Hopefully I’ll keep those to a minimum.

Oh and lastly, one more time – Please Keep Writing Diaries! I need your work for the front page. No one wants to hear what I have to say all the time, including me. Thanks for your patience and general good will. It is much appreciated.

I’m going to go and zone out on mindless TV now.

Have a great night.