I’ve spent a lot of time reading up on election news in a frantic effort to get up to speed. I still feel like my time off has left me at a major analytical disadvantage. It’s hard to estimate how important an ineffable feel for the electorate is to my accuracy in prognosticating, but I certainly don’t excel at predictions simply because I have better reading comprehension than you do. I read through political coverage rather than just consuming it. What gets written is perhaps more important that how it is written. Noting that The Hill has more than a dozen articles on Ebola and almost nothing on individual congressional races tells me, for example, that the right thinks they’ve found some blood. That doesn’t mean that Ebola is an issue that is going to drive House races.
There’s one thing I can say preliminarily with some degree of confidence, and it has to do with the effect of these midterm elections on the 2016 presidential elections beyond the day-after-Election-Day spin on the midterms.
The Democrats look like they’re about to improve their position in important gubernatorial positions that will help their 2016 nominee. Some of these elections are still toss-ups, but recent polls have been encouraging in some very important delegate-rich states like Florida and Illinois. The Dems will win the governorship in the firewall state of Pennsylvania and look favored to win Maine, which has the potential to award one Electoral College delegate to a Republican due to the state’s unusual presidential election law. Tough elections for Democratic incumbents in Colorado and Connecticut are looking a little more solid.
The Dems are still in striking range of pulling off upsets in Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which could be toss-up states (yes, including Arkansas against Clinton) in any close election where a Republican has an actual chance of winning.
Not that it will have an impact on the 2016 elections, but it should also be noted that the Dems look poised to capture the governors’ mansions in both Kansas and Rhode Island, and to knock out the Republican incumbent governor of Alaska. (Norwegian Rat Saloon? Seriously?).
The pipe dream of seeing Wendy Davis take the seat in Austin once occupied by Shrub is going to go up in smoke, but that appears to be the only truly big state where the Republicans will have executive power. Their hold on the second tier of big states, like Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona is tenuous, and after a really bad night they could be looking at nothing more than Ohio, Tennessee, and North Carolina as states (other than Texas) that they control with more than nine electoral votes.
For the Republicans, they can hope not to suffer any upsets and to maybe pull off one or two themselves. But their best lock right now is to have a dominant night in Ohio, where the Democratic nominee has fallen on his face and imperiled the entire state party up and down the ballot. The Republicans will emerge from the midterms in a disturbingly strong position in the Buckeye State, and that is already baked in the cake.
Still, I’d trade that for controlling Florida in a heartbeat, at least when it comes to presidential politics. Not so for congressional politics.
Another thing to watch for is whether some of the imperiled Republican incumbent governors who actually do survive can emerge as presidential candidates themselves. If they don’t turn around immediately and run for president in 2016, they’ll definitely be in the top tier in 2020, having served two terms in swingy blue states.
Also, WTF, Hawaii? They’re in a mood, so keep an eye on them.
