So, the DSCC is moving in with a big buy in South Dakota. So what? You don’t live there, so what do you care? Hell, it exhausts me to even think about trying to explain the Senate race in South Dakota, let alone why you might want to give a crap about it.
Pretty much everything about American politics exhausts me right now, which is why I haven’t been writing too much. It’s not writer’s block exactly. It’s just fatigue. What are we doing? How are we going to get out of this jam? Where is all the energy we had back in 2005? Even if I had the energy to try it, I can’t organize potted plants.
I guess I am digressing. I am in a mood. There’s shit to understand about South Dakota but the public is being custom-fitted for a collective hazmat suit for the brain. Ebola! Benghazi! Hamas!
Who the fuck is going to read this thing anyway, which I will publish in the middle of the night? What difference will it make?
Well, judging by all the generous donations you’ve been making over the last few days, I’m guessing there are more people who still give a shit than the cable news channels want me to know about. So, here goes.
Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota is retiring. He’s a quiet and unassuming fellow, and was so even before he suffered a stroke that it made it hard from him to enunciate or to speak at length on the Senate floor. But, he’s a powerful man who wields the gavel on the Banking Committee which he took from Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut after Dodd retired to become a Hollywood lobbyist.
South Dakota likes banking and credit cards. They’re silly like that.
When the international banking giant Citibank moved its credit-card operations to Sioux Falls, S.D. in 1981, it altered the small Midwestern city overnight. With a population of barely 80,000 at the time, Sioux Falls still had an economy built on agriculture and meat-packing. But when state leaders, desperate to attract outside businesses during the economic recession of the early 1980s, changed South Dakota’s usury laws to eliminate the cap on interest rates and fees, Citibank came calling.
The company initially promised to bring 500 jobs to the area and to build a large facility in northwest Sioux Falls. Citibank now employs more than 2,900 workers in the city, and it anchors a financial sector that provides more than 16,000 jobs in a metro area with a growing population of nearly 230,000 residents. And according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., South Dakota holds more bank assets—$2.5 trillion—than any other state in the country.
They say that Senator Tim Johnson represents the people of South Dakota, but we know better, don’t we? He actually represents $2.5 trillion in assets, more than any other state in the country.
South Dakota! Who knew?
But Senator Johnson is retiring and someone else will have to oversee our banking laws. And that means that people are clamoring to butter up the next chairman of the Banking Committee. Could be a Democrat or it could be a Republican, but that depends on which party winds up controlling the Senate next year.
And that brings us back to Tim Johnson’s seat, because everyone has assumed for a year or more that it would soon belong to the former Republican governor of South Dakota, Mike Rounds. When you read all the odds makers telling you what the chances are of the GOP taking over the Senate, they all presume that the South Dakota seat is lost. But, maybe it isn’t. Maybe Harry Reid and the DSCC have had a card up their sleeve all along.
Maybe I am already exhausted, but I am just getting warmed up. Still, in order to give myself a breather, let me have the esteemed Mark Halperin and his half-wit sidekick explain:
Public and private polls show Rounds, a former governor who easily won two terms, mired in the mid-30s with both Democrat Rick Weiland and former Republican Senator Larry Pressler within striking distance. A fourth candidate, independent Gordon Howie, is trailing, but Democrats think his presence in the race is giving them a chance to win by siphoning conservative votes. In a four-way race, less than 35 percent of the vote could be a winning total.
Democrats believe they will keep the seat in their party’s hands if either Weiland or Pressler prevails. Pressler is also running as an independent, but Democrats believe he could well caucus with them. He publicly endorsed President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Every sophisticated political strategist knows that going negative in a three-way race benefits the candidate who is neither attacking nor defending, and that means that the DSCC’s decision to blast Mike Rounds on the behalf of Democrat Rick Weiland will primarily benefit the independent Larry Pressler. That works out nicely because Pressler is polling in second place anyway. And Weiland can’t really complain because, what? He doesn’t need the help?
And, so, if all goes according to plan, the DSCC’s ad blitz will sink ex-Gov. Rounds under an ethical cloud of his own making, related to some kind of visa scandal that you really, really don’t give a shit about. And, because the public hates negative campaigning, the good people of South Dakota will also conclude that Mr. Weiland is a desperate shit-heel that they want nothing to do with. Meanwhile, over here stands Mr. Pressler, with clean hands and a wry smile. He’s above all that nepotism and mudslinging, and he’s not partisan at all. He’s a Republican who endorsed Obama. He’s two yellow stripes in the middle of the road.
Does Harry Reid give a shit? He didn’t even want Weiland to run in the first place. Weiland is a Daschle guy. And you know how that is. If you have a memory you do, anyway.
But we’re getting so far down in the weeds.
Harry Reid is a master strategist. He’s a political pugilist who keeps conjuring up stunning rabbits out of unseen hats. But I am catching on to his game, as I anticipated his move in Kansas. Yes, he could wind up orchestrating a victory in each state, both resulting in a former Republican running as an independent, becoming a U.S. Senator, and caucusing with the Democrats in the majority.
But, hark!!
Could Harry Reid’s genius be the recipe for his own political demise?
These stealth candidates of his are coming to Washington to clean out the partisanship and unlock the grid. If they aren’t already on the record as not supporting Reid for leader, they’ll be making those sounds soon. And this centrist caucus is growing. There’s the independent senator from Maine, Angus King, and the conservative senator from West Virginia, Joe Manchin. Michelle Nunn and Mark Pryor say that they don’t support Reid. If they both win election, we’ve got quite a rump of senators who are willing to stick with the Democrats but not necessarily with Reid.
But, then, what if Reid is passed over? Certainly he won’t go back to being a backbencher who has to sit on committees all day. He’ll retire and the Republican governor of Nevada will appoint his replacement, giving the Republicans an extra seat and possibly changing control of the chamber back to the Republicans.
So many permutations and possibilities. So much strategizing and backstabbing and holding one’s cards close to one’s vest.
Where does the intrigue begin and end?
The incentives to backstab Reid can vary from compelling to suicidal depending on the exact composition of the Senate, which probably won’t be decided for good until Georgia finishes its run-off election in January.
It’s all so byzantine that it could actually be exciting, especially when you consider what will happen to Mitch McConnell if the GOP fails to win the Senate, and what will happen to the GOP if McConnell fails to win reelection.
Except, the Senate doesn’t do anything anymore.
And that’s the real logic behind these independent campaigns. Reid may be the man behind the curtain doing the crazy voodoo that he do, but the greater logic is that he and McConnell’s era has outlasted its usefulness and perhaps the electorate is going to have something to say about it in its unguided invisible hand kind of way.
The GOP went nuts, which perhaps is opening the way not for a third party but for the one thing our system can absorb, which is a rump of one party coming over to the other and then insisting on having its way.
That’s what the segregationists did when they left the Democratic Party for the Republican Party. At first, they were Dixiecrats, remember?
Also available in orange.
And that’s where the energy goes into a black hole of suck when you realize nothing you do will result in you not being screwed.
You may be too tired to care, but IMHO this is your best review and projection of a component of this election cycle.
Instead of Democrats holding onto the Senate with DINOs, Reid is going with a contingent of IRDINOs.
Had Democrats organized early and for half of what Reid is now dumping into SD, Shenna Bellows in Maine could have been a real contender.
I read it, in the middle of the night. Neither agree nor disagree, it isn’t Oregon hence in my view… New York. Ain’t nothin’ east of The Rockies we need.
I failed at War.
SD is getting interesting. I live in Sioux Falls, the New York City of SD (150,000 inhabitants, 1/6 of the state).
4 candidates:
It was gonna be a walk in the park for Mike Rounds.
Then EB-5 came up.
EB-5 is a corrupt federal program where residency permits are sold for 500,000 to foreign weasels. Like selling kidneys, it should not be done. But it is.
In SD, it has become even more corrupted and degenerated. The program was set up and run by a state university. Rounds (gov at the time) allowed the program to be privately managed. So, the state employee at the university running the program set up a private corporation with himself as president, signed a contract with himself, quit his state job, and began running the program as president of the private organization.
To which any normal person would say “WHAT THE FLYING DUTCH FUCK IS THAT!!????” The guy running the program is not a citizen.
Now we have 10-15 questions:
So, it’s a thunderstorm with shoes dropping left and right. It’s raining Dutch clogs in SD. Will this be enough to elect Pressler (at 30% now)? Can Weiland pull ahead (28%)? Can Rounds play rope-a-dope long enough (36%)? Will Gordon Howie pull off the tea wacks (< 10%)?
Note also that some believe that up to $100,000,000 in funds is not properly accounted for (200 foreign weasels at $500,000/weasel). Thus, the funds which are misallocated and not accounted for are not chump change.
Here’s a memo detailing the funds which have been stolen from the state: $140,000,000 in loan fees, yearly vigorish (yearly maintainance fees of $10,000 – you read that right – $10 fucking thousand dollars to keep the green card) and so forth.
http://www.sddp.org/2014/09/mike-rounds-employee-joop-bollen-committed-140-million-fraud-managing-eb
5-program/
all fascinating, thanks
the guy running the corporation was Dutch?
Yup, Joop Bollen. I have no idea what his citizenship status is. I do know that his little swindle made $140,000,000 from the chumps in the Republican Party of SD.
$140,000,000. We have a chronic problem in teacher pay here. $140,000,000 could have raised salaries a ton.
I saw the contract that transfered management from the Northern State U entity to the corrupt firm run by Bollen.
In the contract, which Bollen signed for the state and a guy named James Park signed for the SDRC (the firm taking over the management), Item 6 states:
SDRC INC will act in an independent capacity and not as officers or employees of SDIBI/DEDR or the State of South Dakota.
Now, at the time of signing, Bollen OWNED the company, and this Park guy was just a fake. So, as he signed the document, the document was INVALID. The signing was false. I’m trying to get a lawyer to look at it.
wow! by “fake” do you mean the person didn’t exist? or his supposed office in company didn’t exist? yes, good work! hope you do get a lawyer to look at it!
I did just talk to a lawyer and he said I was 100% correct. In point of legal fact, SDRC appears now to have been an ENTIRELY CORRUPT COMPANY.
The guy who signed it for SDRC was a lawyer who was in the pay of SDRC who was in fact Bollen. So, essentially Bollen was signing it with himself. At the very moment of signing, the contract was “null and void, or voidable” in the terms of the lawyer.
They are going to be suing Bollen to get the $140,000,000 back from him. If that hits before Nov 4, that could be fun.
$140 with six zeros, at first I read it with 3 zeros just because that’s sort of incomprehensible – and to sue to get it back, very nice legal action.
The fees in this case are just staggering. The cost of the EB-5 is $500,000. SDRC was charging a flat $30,000 for processing (8%). There was also a yearly $10K to maintain. So, in 5 years, a single EB-5 would generate $80,000 in fees to these fucking turds.
The # of visas also seems high. Sums are basically staggering.
amazing. and who pays the fees? the company? what kind of jobs? engineers?
On the other side, I have a former student who works for a Northeastern GOP Congressman who’s ready to make Steny Hoyer Speaker of the House.
This isn’t so much a fracturing of the Democrats as a fracturing of the GOP, with the old Bob Dole/Bob Michels Republicans trying to find a way out of the wilderness.
It’s the fracturing of both.
Informative big picture analysis. Good work.
This is the only question I have.
We’ve seen many cases in which that tends not to be true for Republicans but does seem to be true still for Democrats. Most famous case I can think of is the 2002 Max Cleland ad that clinched Saxby Chambliss’s win. And from David Perdue to Mitch McConnell, there have been similar ads.
I found the analysis that “Good news we’re putting in $1 million. Bad news, we’re throwing you an anvil” as part of maneuvering the Senate an interesting gambit.
Also in that list of independents you listed, I would not count Bernie Sanders out in being to ally with them on some issues.
Of course, people were going to read the post.
Who thought South Dakota and Kansas would be this interesting this year?
The analogy of the rump segregationists redefining the GOP is pretty compelling. So a bunch of third way types win, and in the process of deciding to keep the Senate Democratic they kill any populist notion the Democrats might have.
Did you really think the Senate Democrats were chomping at the bit with “populist notions”? Even now the roster of Senate Dems includes Begich, Bennet, Carper, Casey, Donnelly, Feinstein, Hagan, Heitkamp, Johnson, Kaine, King, Landrieu, Manchin, McCaskill, Nelson, Pryor, Tester, Walsh, and Warner, and that’s giving the benefit of the doubt to people like Booker, Coons, Menendez, and Schumer, and of course Reid himself, none of whom seem like shining lights of liberal populism to me.
There is one person in the Senate who cares about American workers, and that is Bernie Sanders. He is an independent Socialist.
After Clinton, the notion that the Democrats have any “populists” who care about the “populace” as opposed to the “plutocrats” is a ludicrous and absurd one.
I’m not sure they “kill any populist notion” the Democrats might have. If capitalism is going to survive, smart capitalists and their political supporters have to recognize the cliff their Tea-version is destined to head over.
Any GOP moderates who left the radicalized GOTP are not crazed austerians or rabid corporatists. I’m also not sure they share the corporate-sponsored agenda of our 3d-way DINOs. And, unlike the Dixiecrats who took over the old GOP, these political refugees don’t have the upper hand. They have something the party would like but doesn’t actually need. The Democratic Party could lose the Senate majority in 2014 and still be almost certain to retake it (and the WH) in 2016 without SD or KS or GA or WV.
Additionally, imo, the social and political landscape is unlikely to let the Democratic Party stray too far from an agenda that rebuilds or otherwise placates Obama/DeBlasio/Truthout/Warren/Sanders donors and voters.
They kill the populist impulses only to the extent they can be the majority. The intensification is coming to the left and right of them, especially to the right of them in the worst case.
So the pattern goes from a right-center government to a right-center-centerleft government, with the bipartisan center having power as a swing caucus. Heck, there might even turn out to be three caucuses, each with their majority leader and having to have three-way negotiations.
With all the extra-party campaign funding of candidates, party affiliation is only a funding convenience for funds like this $1 million anvil. Candidates have been independent of any party discipline for quite some time now.
So this dumping of Democrats in favor of not so bad Republicans is all part of Harry Reid’s bid for his personal power and status and fuck the rank and file. Makes me think about term limits. Maybe we would be better off with amateurs instead of professional bastards.
That’s a very one-sided way of looking at things.
I’d prefer a progressive revolution, but it appears that this is how this country will attempt to avoid fascism.
By promoting it? Fascism is the blending of corporate and state interests.
We are going to restructure into a corporatist party and a religious/racist party. Worker’s rights? We have none.
“Fascism is the blending of corporate and state interests.”
Because Mussolini said so? Get back to me when you’ve figured out what fascism actually is.
No because the political economist who coined the term said so. Mussolini just plagiarized him. Can’t seem to find his name by google, but Thom Hartmann has pointed out Mussolini’s plagiarism many times.
Sorry, but a mixed economy does not, by itself, equal fascism. Not even close.
We are going to restructure into a religious/racist/nationalist party, a corporatist party, and a minorities/ptogressive party. Just not in terms of formal party identities unless the rumps and independents cultivate separate party institutions. BooMan’s Dixiecrat analogy IMO is apt. It’s not exactly a role reversal but the Congressional political dynamics likely will operate in the Senate much the way they did in the 1950s–with the Cruz caucus operating much the way that House Dixiecrats keyed on Strom Thurmond.
All of those progressive agenda items will be struggled for in the streets before they make it to Congress. We have not yet witnessed our first sitdown strike at WalMart of workers and sympathetic customers or the first sitdown strike at a strategic McDonalds. If nothing changes, I think we will see that within the next five years.
I hope you’re right.
Well there’s an election ahead that will determine whether it’s even a viable scenario.
You can’t have fascism without fascists. Not saying we don’t have fascists here, of course, but there aren’t enough of them to take over.
I mean, it’s not like all these previously undetected fascists are suddenly going to emerge out of nowhere. We know who they are, and one gigantic disadvantage that they have is that they’re white racist assholes in an increasingly diverse and tolerant society.
I don’t know, some people seem to have gotten the idea that the Feds backed off of Cliven Bundy because they were scared. Really the only thing they were scared of was the bad publicity if they incinerated a bunch of innocent people. If the Cliven Bundys really tried to start anything they wouldn’t stand a chance.
It depends on how you identify fascists. For Mussolini, the greatness of Italy was in the fusion of power of corporations and the state. And state power was used on behalf of the corporations exclusively.
Similar systems existed in Latin America during the 1930s to 1980s.
There are a subtantial number of actors in US politics whose vision is exactly that–from the Koch brothers to Antonin Scalia, to a huge number of GOP candidates.
They might not be wearing olive uniforms and goose-stepping behind Eagle-bear SPQR standards yet, but the argument is seen not as fascism but as the views of “real Americans”.
FWIW
From Wikipedia on Italian Fascism:
Ask working class conservatives what they think of strikes.
Interesting how the idea of a “Third Way” crops up again.
Martin, you sounds depressed as much as you do exhausted, not that anyone can sense much over the internet.
Of course I’ll read this – I read your blog at least twice a day, I have for years, and I think it’s an incredibly valuable resource.
Take care of yourself.
I’m having a pretty good day today. But, admittedly, it’s my first decent day in quite a while.
One foot in front of the other…
And keep the cable news channels OFF.
Wisest move. Let the young media analysts handle their dreck. You can find out what they said and manageable chunks of video on the blogs.
Keep putting that one foot in front of the other. We need your analysis here.
Glad it’s a good one. Enjoy.
>> a rump of one party coming over to the other and then insisting on having its way.
so, when the less-crazy republicans complete their takeover of the Democratic party, making it even less “less evil” than it is now, what will you advise progressives to do? the system appears determined to avoid offering the option of an actual liberal party.
I would advise progressives to set about making more progressives as fast as possible, because right now there are too few, and every progressive needs a bunch of moderates to make a majority.
BooMan, I told PayPal to talk a long walk off a short pier recently, so I need another way to send you money.
I just broke up with PayPal; I can’t bring myself to call them for a one night stand.
If you don’t want to post a snail mail address here, feel free to use the email address I signed up with to contact me with your address.
Thanks!
Fascinating and for me helpful since I’ll very likely do GOTV in SD [talk with field office there last week].
Per Digby, Lawrence Lessig’s PAC has put in funds for Weiland, and the GOP is attacking Pressler while DSCC attacks Rounds.
And Daily Kos Action is funding a GOTV on the reservations.
This could be one to watch. And to see whether a lot of effort can get the vote over 50%. Yes, very long shot. Still would upset the narrative about this midterm.
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