Midst all of the conversation tonight, remember two facts:
- In the battleground states that the GOP MUST win to get to 270, we are going to win far more than we will lose.
- The lost of the Senate is occurring because of Democratic seats in states that Democrats have not win in 30 years.
Let’s start with the last part first. Here are the likely losses in the Senate along with the Romney’s margin
Alaska (13.99)
Arkansas (23.69)
Louisiana (17.21)
South Dakota (18.2)
West Virginia (26.26)
None of these states were close in 2012. Winning any of them would be a miracle. So lets look at the close states in 2012:
North Carolina (-2.04), Hagan likely to win
New Hampshire (5.58) Shaheen likely to win
Minnesota (7.69) Franken easy win
Pennsylvania (5.38) Incumbent Republican will get crushed
Florida (.88) Incumbent Republican well under 50
There are really only two battleground states that are in play:
CO (5.36) Udall looks in trouble
IA (5.81) Open seat looks bad.
But there are REPUBLICAN incumbents in battleground seats that are in serious trouble. In addition to Florida and Pennsylvania, Walker is in deep trouble in Wisconsin (6.94)
So lets take a step back. The last Cook ratings in 2012 had Obama with a solid 183 electoral votes. Democrats will win every Senate Seat contested in those states. Cook had an addition 18 as likely Democratic:
New Mexico (Dem will be re-elected)
Maine (Dem may beat incumbent GOP, long term “moderate” GOP senator will win)
Minnesota (Dem will win)
That totals 201 Electoral votes. Cook had 4 additional states as leaning Democratic. The 52 EV’s in these states bring the Democratic total to 253.
Pennsylvania (Incumbent GOP Governor will lose)
Michigan (Dem Senator will win easily, Incumbent GOP Gov may lose)
Nevada – no seriously contest race
Wisconsin (GOP incumbent Gov may lose)
There is no sign in any of these states that the GOP is on their way to victory. These states get the Democrats within 17 votes of 270.
Cook had an additional 94 as battleground states. But when you look at each you find Democrats performing well in most:
Colorado – really this is the only troubling result – a Dem incumbent may lose.
Florida – The Dems may take the Governor’s race despite heavy spending by the GOP. Remember, the GOP HAS TO HAVE FLORIDA to win. But there is no reason to think after tonight that Florida is anything but a tossup.
Iowa – open seat and we are behind. A troubling result.
New Hampshire – Dems will likely take both the Senate and the Gov seat
North Carolinia – Hagan favored in a seat the GOP has to have to get to 270.l
Ohio- Dem self destructed. No real lesson from this seat one way or another.
Virginia – Dems took gov seat, incumbent Senator will win.
Remember, the GOP essentially has to win all of these seats to get to 270.
And in this election, with turnout down, it is clear they can’t do it. They are losing two Senate races in states they absolutely have to have. They are in a tough fight in Florida.
After tonight, when the dust settles, people are going to think of 2016 and look at the map.
And the path to 270 for the GOP is going to look tougher than it did 4 years ago.
