Put me in Kevin Drum’s camp when it comes to what yesterday’s elections mean nationally:
Look: every election cycle features different candidates. Obviously it’s possible that, on average, this year’s crop of Democrats were more milksoppy than usual. But here’s what’s far more likely: 2014 featured a fairly ordinary bunch of candidates, and the party’s leadership was roughly as effective and visionary (or not) as it normally is. Ditto for fundraising and GOTV efforts.
But every election cycle has structural differences. This one featured a bad Senate map for Dems. It was a midterm election. The party leader was a president whose popularity has waned. The economy continues to be listless. Washington is paralyzed by gridlock, which means that Democrats didn’t have many legislative successes to sell. And anyway, a consistent message would have been all but impossible given all the seats they had to defend in conservative states.
Maybe Dems could have done better. Maybe their message this year really was weak and stale. But if your theory of defeat is based on some enduring and egregious flaw that’s inherent in the Democratic Party, you should reconsider. It probably doesn’t explain as much as you think. Structural explanations that take account of varying conditions are almost always better.
Washington Monthly’s Ed Kilgore wrote a piece two years ago (at least) that I can’t find right now or I’d link to that, too. In it he predicted an outcome much like what came to pass yesterday. If you want a deep dive into the demographic and political underpinnings of the two major political parties and of the American political system that yielded yesterday’s Republican victories, check out Ronald Brownstein’s characteristically in-depth and even-handed analysis published the day before the elections by the National Journal.
For those despondent over yesterday’s outcomes, take heart. The same factors suggest that—all else being equal—Democrats should have a very good night on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, 2016.
P. S. It should come as no surprise that fifteen years of falling median household incomes produces a sour and angry electorate.
Crossposted at: http://masscommons.wordpress.com/
