If you thought that the Bush family was capable of some degree of humility and contrition considering how they brought us the debacle in Iraq, this report from the Wall Street Journal should completely disabuse you of that notion.
Jeb Bush is crisscrossing the country on a 60-event fundraising blitz aimed at raising enough money to give other Republicans second thoughts about entering the race.
The fundraising effort, which Mr. Bush’s team has dubbed a “shock and awe’’ campaign, could be particularly meaningful for Mitt Romney , who is competing with Mr. Bush for support from the same small circle of longtime Republican donors.
The lack of self-awareness is bad enough. After all, the initial “shock and awe” campaign did not cow opponents in Iraq but led to a nasty insurgency and ultimately a failed campaign to make Iraq a protectorate of the United States. The corollary here would be that Jeb raises so much money that he assumes it will force his rivals out of the race only to discover that he was delusional and has no plan for what to do when his opponents do not quit.
Byron York isn’t even convinced that Jeb will be able to raise enough money to scare anyone.
5. The Bush family network isn’t as strong as some believe. There has been much talk of the vaunted Bush political machine, which is said to give Jeb Bush a big advantage even before the 2016 race officially begins. Jeb Bush himself has been calling donors and has told some of them that he hopes they will again support “the family.” But the fact is, it has been a while since the Bush machine was in operation here in Iowa. It was last up and running in 2004, for the re-election of George W. Bush, and last at work for the caucuses in 2000, for W’s first run. For the 2016 race, that means the machine has been out of action for a long time. Many Bush donors from 2000 and 2004 became Romney donors in 2008 and 2012. They have conflicted loyalties, and not all of them will rejoin the family.
I think it’s safe to say that Jeb won’t be able to scare Mitt Romney away based on fundraising alone, and also that they will divide most of the big donor base between them. Still, once some of the governors get a load of the haul Bush has brought in by doing 60 events, they may realize that they can’t compete.
Some candidates will run, not to win, but to boost their profile. This could be either to advance their private sector careers or to position themselves for a future political run for higher office. A smaller group may believe that running for the nomination and competing in the debates are the best ways to get themselves on the short list for the vice-presidential slot. Jeb’s fundraising isn’t going to deter these candidates no matter how mind-blowing it is.
But governors like John Kasich of Ohio, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and Chris Christie of New Jersey may not feel that they have to run for the nomination in order to be considered for the short list of vice-presidential contenders. Their profiles are high enough that running for and losing the nomination could hurt more than it helps.
In any case, if anyone is going to emerge other than Bush and Romney, they’ll have to raise a lot of money. Otherwise, the best they’ll do is to replicate Rick Santorum’s 2012 performance where he was able to win some states but couldn’t exploit his victories because he lacked the money to fund a viable national organization.
That might be comforting if you’re concerned that a real wingnut might become the Republican Party’s standard bearer, but talking about “shock and awe” in a positive way as part of a concerted plan?
Jeb ain’t much better than George, that’s for sure.
For two cycles now, the Republican elite has managed to shove candidates down the base’s throat that said base hated. Base went grumblingly along for the sake of electability, only to see that candidate lose to Obama. The biggest advantage the elite has is that they coalesced around a candidate quickly, while the base could not unite. If Gingrich and Santorum had been able to settle who should head the ticket, they may have been able to stop Romney.
I don’t think the base will be in a mood for this play again. They’re going to try to unite behind someone. If the elite succumbs to a protracted battle between Bush and Romney, we could see Santorum or the like take it.
One lesson of the 2012 primaries is that, with no effective restrictions on the donations of the rich, candidates do not need the consensus of the rich behind them. Single mavericks can do a lot to keep one sufficiently funded, as both Gingrich and Santorum demonstrated. For this reason, Romney cannot be fundraised out of the race – he can self-fund. And there does seem to be diminishing returns to funding, particularly for primaries. Which means Romney has nothing to fear from fundraising as such.
Doesn’t matter. The base hates dems more. They will always unify if the alternative us a democrat.
I just… cannot… bear the idea of another round of Bush vs. Clinton. I mean this seriously. I believe it might crush my will to live. I may die under the weight of all that deja vu and rusty irony. Or I may throw up my hands at the awful blatancy of this media-staged sock puppet show and stop voting. It’s a rigged game. We the People lose either way.
If there’s one thing that Americans love, more than sex, religion, the thrill of victory, or even money, it’s wallowing in nostalgia. For Democrats, it’ll be the nostalgia of the later-half of the Clinton years; for Republicans, it’ll be the nostalgia of the pre-Katrina, post-9/11 Bush Jr. years.
Americans are suckers for sequels. Hollywood and National Political parties know that even a bad sequel does well when it opens. That’s why producers make and offer them again and again until one finally fails at the box office or ballot box.
The producers of the 2016 POTUS lalapalooza are thinking that Clinton v. Bush 2.0 will be like The Godfather Part II. Okay, The Godfather was a bigger box office hit than The Godfather Part II, but the sequel won twice as many Oscars. So, Clinton v. Bush 2.0 will be the female Clinton and the smarter Bush. They are good to go.
But what if it’s not The Godfather Part II but The Godfather Part III? When obvious nepotism was a turnoff and spoiler and the franchise was by then stale and too long in the tooth? Box office receipts (adjusted for inflation):
Godfather: $653 million
Part II: $211 million
Part III: $131 million
(Production cost (adj for inflation) I $34 million and III (incl promo) $90 million.)
Considering that in 2000 GWB campaigned as the anti-Clinton, a 2016 Clinton v. Bush looks to me more like 3.0 than 2.0. Will be as painful to sit through for some as Part III was — but at least the running time of that damn movie was only 170 minutes and not 17 months.
I have to admit, my high school years in the late 90s were about the greatest time ever. Sub 1$ gas, girls, money, no responsibility, the internet was still largely populated with enthusiasts rather than data crunchers, politically and personally future was bright or challenges lay ahead we could face down.
I’ve often wanted to ho back there and just enjoy being me again. But I’m not stupid enough yo think HRC has anything to do with it.
Everybody recalls some time in their past that seemed to be particularly good for them personally. Setting aside everything else, the late 90s and early naughts were unusually good for me based on work status and income, but I hated at least half the job. The greatest ever for me were the late 70s — less status and less income and a similar job that I loved. (The industry was irrevocably changed in the ’80s to favor sales and schmoozing over technical skills that had business and social value.) But those years weren’t half as creative and hopeful as the years in the second half of the ’60s (if only we could have ended that damn stupid and evil war).
Totally.
Except one represents the self-starting first-ever female President of the US while the other represents generational wealth and privilege.
So you might find some shelter there.
Those born on or carried to third base cannot claim to be “self-starting” or having hit a triple.
Really? I would suggest in future this phrase is not one Hillary’s team want to see within a paragraph of their candidate’s name.
Why – it’s a single generation, unlike the five generations of Bush peerage.
It’s an obscenity that should never be uttered by a liberal to compare Bush privilege to the Clintons’ journey (imperfect as it is).
We know we watched the whole thing. Just sayin’.
Really? You. Just. Can. Not. Bear. The. Idea. Of. Another. Round. of Bush vs. Clinton? As if we’ve been having to constantly relive the hell over and over for the past 24 years, and you Just. Can’t. Take. It. Any. More.? Because it’s just Clinton vs. Bush non-stop? Is that what you can’t take anymore?
Serious question.
I’m old enough, but I’m really, really not nostalgic about them in the slightest. While I have many fond memories of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s, none of them have any connection whatsoever with either Bush or Clinton. Quite the contrary.
Still, that’s just me. But I wonder if I’m so unusual.
The above was a reply to Deathtongue.
Well there are at least two of us.
The prospect of EITHER Bush or the ex-Senator from Punjab fills me with disgust.
GW was ignorant and naïve. He served a base much different that today’s and his ‘Bush’s Brain’ and his Cheney war cabinet made the most of his ignorance. His campaign machine was more money than strategy, with the exception of Rove’s campaign ads against McCain and Kerry.
Jeb, in a better looking way, seems to share GW’s naivety as he expects to criss cross the Country turning on campaign fund engines. The engines seem idle as they await an effort by Jeb show leadership. It’s one thing to ask for support of the family, it’s another to finish the sentence, …because….”
Shock and Awe? Really? I sort of half believed the idea that Jeb was the smarter brother til I saw that. Good grief, he’s just as arrogant and clueless as W and Pappy.
GHBW was busted for being arrogant and clueless in 1992. However, because he physically looks the part, few have noticed that he too is a dim bulb, albeit with only slightly more wattage than Quayle and Shrub.
Define “few” in the sentence “few have noticed”. Last I checked, it was a broad societal conviction that W is a total clueless boob. Probably 100,000,000 Americans believe that he is a moron.
Ah, now I see. You refer to JEB. OK, few have noticed. More will start to thing “another Bush?” and recoil in horror.
Really? Seems to me Marie is speaking of the father, George Herbert Walker Bush.
That’s the problem with pronouns and sloppy writing.
I have long believed that Bush 43 won because his name is “George Bush”, and he is the namesake of his father. Thus, the “recognition factor” in primary elections played to his advantage. He was able to garner the “warm fuzzy” feelings of the electorate who felt that GB Sr was robbed by Clinton/Perot.
JEB has none of that. He is simply running as the “more capable” Bush, the equivalent of a “more lethal” version of a Bushmaster rifle. I for one do NOT want a more capable Bush. If he is the candidate, there will be a huge reaction against this family of second-raters.
JEB is also running as “the only possible candidate to be able to reach out beyond the tea party types and actually win the Presidency.
Romney is a failed rerun, Christie is toast, and Walker is too obviously the creature of the Kochs. There is no one else.
Or has just trolling Democrats become basic Republican outreach to their base? In the current state of American political tribalism I vote the latter.
Humility and contrition? From a member of the Bush clan?
Forget it. They would never have seen Bush senior in the White House if they were capable of humility and contrition.
“Entitlement” trumps “humility and contrition” every time.
OK
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Collective guilt, Boo? Jeb is not GW and is no more responsible for GW’s policies than your are.
thats right .. ok
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Nice ..
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wow ..great
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