After the Bush administration reacted to the 9/11 attacks, the breach of the levees in New Orleans, the sectarian warfare in Iraq, and the collapse of the Housing Bubble by telling us that no one could have predicted them, I think it’s time to put that excuse away for a while.
Few could have predicted that Emanuel, 55, would be in such a precarious position against [Jesus “Chuy”] Garcia.
Drawing on a deep well of connections he developed during his two tours as a top White House aide and six years as a congressman, the mayor has raised more than $13 million — over 10 times more than Garcia. Emanuel has also had help from President Obama, who cut radio commercials and made a campaign swing through Chicago just a few days before the initial Feb. 24 election.
But Emanuel, whose rocky first term saw him preside over a wave of violent crime, a massive budget shortfall and a series of confrontations with teachers, finds himself in political jeopardy. A poll conducted by the independent firm Ogden & Fry, which was released Sunday, showed the mayor holding onto a narrow 43 percent to 39 percent lead.
I mean, c’mon. It says it right there. Emanuel’s “rocky first term saw him preside over a wave of violent crime, a massive budget shortfall and a series of confrontations with teachers.”
What does a political analyst need to look for when trying to determine if a politician might have a hard time getting reelected? In particular, what does a mayor need to do to assure his popularity if not deal with crime and budget issues?
Sure, sometimes a mayor gets dealt a bad hand. But getting dealt a bad hand is transparent in this case. Emanuel inherited some serious problems. And that’s precisely why is should have been easy to foresee that he could face a problem getting reelected.
When you add to this his obnoxious behavior and alienation of key elements of the Democratic base, it’s hard to argue that he played his bad cards so well that he should have been considered invulnerable.
Right?
Emanuel is in a dogfight that was very predictable.
I’m tired of being told that “few could have predicted” things that should be staring good analysts right in their face.
I’ve written why Rahm has to go.
Will Chicago Elect A New Mayor?
Posted on March 2, 2015
by rikyrah
http://3chicspolitico.com/2015/03/02/will-chicago-elect-a-new-mayor/
Yeah, I can’t see how the St. Louis-i-zation of Chicago (shutting down local schools in black/hispanic neighborhoods) can fly in Chicago long term. The larger demographic equation has changed, Illinois isn’t Missouri. And Rahm just doesn’t appear to care all that much (or at the least he’s got a problematic personal communication style) for the concerns of the new majorities.
Not that he didn’t have a hard job to do, sure, but I never quite got how a Washington insider was seen as the solution to Chicago’s problems. I don’t know anything about Chuy, but I hope he’s got a strong ethical grounding. He won’t get the free pass his non-latino predecessors got for their corruption.
but, they just KNEW that Rahm was going to win last week.
they just KNEW
after all….
they had hired a Black ringer to take away votes from the opposition…
Rahm had all the money and the slick ads…..
Rahm’s final position didn’t change from all the polling.
While it was Chuy that was elevated.
Damn near every undecided voter went for Chuy.
Yes, team Rahm predicted that he would win. Must have hired from the same professional campaign employee pool as Romney did.
Rahm expected to continue to ride on Obama’s coattails regardless of his poor job performance and arrogant, unpleasant personality.
Is he now privately calling Chicago voters “retards?”
Obama even came in to campaign for Rahm.
I don’t think Obama’s to blame. His support has helped Rahm; not dragged him down. It’s just that there’s only so much lipstick can dress up a DINO in an urban, progressive setting like Chicago.
I agree. That was the point I thought I was making.
Consider the source, Booman.
“…things that should be staring good analysts right in their face.”
Aye, and therein lies the rub.
Rahm has been endorsed by Republican Mark kirk. That’s enough reason for me to send some $ to Garcia.
The real kiss of death will be an endorsement from the new GOP governor. Chicago needs a real investment in in its infrastructure. The oldest subway cars from 1977 are being replaced…but the structure that supports the elevated part of the system is 100 years old.
Ahhh, but you are forgetting that sitting on corner of the desk of most every pundit at Politico is a big thick binder labeled “CONVENTIONAL WISDOM”. And it is well worn and tattered from years of heavy reliance by the lazy minds of the beltway political pundit class.
Nah, Rahm should have had it easy. Crime is dropping in most places in the country, and Chicago’s problems – in a relatively well-populated, not poor city – reflect some bad decisions in policing, employment, or housing policy. I’m not familiar with current conditions in Chicago anymore, but the crime wave indicates he’s doing something wrong.
Likewise with the budget. He had to make some cuts, sure. But he didn’t have to savage local schools in poor areas while providing huge subsidies to schools in wealthy areas.
If he’d had any regard for the poorer and minority communities in Chicago, he’d have had an easy re-election. But he’s running Chicago with a plantation mentality – squeeze as much as possible out of poor blacks and hispanics so the mostly-white rich – and especially his cronies getting the contracts – can be better off. That’s wrong morally, that’s wrong for the long-term health of the city, and I’m glad the people of Chicago are catching on and at least giving him a rough ride.
The crime wave started with random gang shoot outs killing innocent by-standers, many of them children. It moved from there to carjackings, now it is smash and grab in uptown businesses, so something will probably be done about it.
An effective gang crimes unit could have solved those shootings, but Chicago’s gang crime unit is more concerned with political dissidents and, I suspect, pay offs from gang drug operations. Chicago is a major hub in the international drug operations, but the victims are poor non whites, so the rich people that Rahm sucks up to don’t give a damn.
I’m predicting a war in Ukraine, involving US personnel.
I’ll give you two to one against the US involvement. There already is a war in the Ukraine.