Benjamin “Noun, Verb, Iran and Hamas” Netanyahu has done his best Rudolph Giuliani impersonation and now he’s on the cusp of taking a sharp jab in the nose (at a minimum) or, perhaps, suffering a fatal political death of his own making.
I was up a good part of the night reading everything I could find on tomorrow’s elections in Israel, and I think the one thing that is certain is that it will take a little while to figure out what the returns are going to mean. The unlikeliest outcome is that Bibi emerges stronger than when he dissolved the Knesset in December and called for new elections.
While there’s definitely some uncertainty about what the raw vote totals will be, the real mysteries revolve around how the “winner” will manage to cobble together a majority coalition, if they can at all. If the polls are believable, Netanyahu will not get the first shot at forming a government, and that alone will be a humbling moment for Likud and the Israeli right.
Ed Kilgore did a piece a few minutes ago that said basically what I intended to say about the American implications of such an outcome. It’s safe to say that the Republicans will be disoriented. If Israelis reject Netanyahu’s fear-mongering about Iran, does that make them anti-semitic cowards?
Isaac Herzog, who leads the Zionist Union (ZU) coalition, has said that he will not invite the Arab parties to join his majority, and the Arab parties have said that they have no intention of joining any majority. Those predictions may well hold, as Herzog would probably lose nearly as many votes as he gained by making common cause with the Arab-Israelis. But the dynamic is already visible. Sometime in the not distant future the Israeli left will join with the Arab parties to form a majority. If not in the next month, then in the next election, or the election after that.
What I wasn’t able to find in any of the pieces I read last night was a real analysis of what that would mean for Israel and Israeli society.
Krugman has a post on his blog about how Israel’s income inequality trend exceeds that of the US and may be the worst in the world.
One thing we know about countries where a few have almost all the money is that the masses have to be kept distracted, usually by fear-mongering and endless war. And if the powers have to engineer a few false flag operations to do so, so be it.
Does Krugs have anything on Brazil’s economy? Been hoping to get his perspective since Rouseff is in big trouble.
In land mass, Israel is roughly the size of New Jersey. Difficult to imagine how the residents of that state would respond to the forced takeover of it by a large, ethnic immigrant population to establish a homeland of their own.
Or imagine if Barack Obama could not hire an ethnic minority into his cabinet for fear of revolt and mass-resignation of his other cabinet members.
Hasn’t Herzog said that settlement construction will continue? In that case, why would the Arab parties join his government?
How many progressives did Obama hire? And in the 2014 mid-terms, most Democratic candidates ran as far away from Obama and to his right as possible. As if Obama was a liberal and not near to straddling the line between Democrats and Republicans.
Too quick on the draw?
○ A Post-Netanyahu Republican Foreign Policy
Election analysis and opinion … be careful, a lot may be written to sway late voters in the voting booth. Personally, I think the Israeli voters have drifted so far to the right, that any cabinet will continue Likud policy, with or without Netanyahu. Bibi hasn’t won an election yet by gaining more seats in parliament … just love that lying basterd, I won’t miss him! President of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, eluded to a national unity cabinet after the election, that would be better than Likud forming a new government. The two-state solution is a dead horse.
○ Netanyahu says no Palestinian state if he remains PM | Ynet News |
○ Likud data shows for first time majority of Israelis don’t believe Netanyahu will form coalition | JPost |
○ The Farewell Party of the Mezuzah-kissers
The two-state solution is a dead horse.
Was it ever a live one? Or more like a unicorn for US and Palestinians dreamers?
What Netanyahu leaves behind is a one-state solution as the only option. That means a Palestinian majority, an apartheid state, ethnic cleansing, or constant war that amounts to US Indian War genocide. Other options have been closed.
This election decides which of those paths are the first that the Israeli state will go down. And that decision will decide the diplomatic stance of the rest of the world toward Palestinian statehood.
The US-Israeli relationship will remain a problem for working out the politics in Israel-Palestine. When opinion is not split down the middle, it leans toward apartheid.
Tomorrow will be interesting indeed.
I think more important than Netanyahu losing (though I hope to heaven he does) is keeping the Haredi out of any governing coalition. The ultra religous have special privileges while at the same time driving policies that starve the country financially, discriminate against more secular jews (especially in regards to recognizing conversions) and encourage expansionism and a heavier use of the military. The last is especially ironic given their fight against serving.
○ 66 Years of Israeli Voting in 1 Cool Graphic
Israel's Knesset today and cool graphic of evolution seats by party 1948-2015 (The Economist)
Source of graphic and how to form a coalition after Tuesday’s election in Israel …
○ The evolution of Israeli politics | The Economist |
Based purely on my gut, I think Bibi squeaks through and it’s business as usual when all the dust settles.
“If Israelis reject Netanyahu’s fear-mongering about Iran, does that make them anti-semitic cowards? “
It’s a complete non-sequitur, because most of those voting against Bibi will be doing so not because they’re not worried about Iran, but because they’re fed up with the extremely unbalanced economy of Israel, with which Bibi and his cronies are strongly identified.
This is the point Krugman made in his most recent column, and I found it very convincing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/16/opinion/paul-krugman-israels-gilded-age.html