The other Patrick Murphy is going to run for Marco Rubio’s Senate seat. He’ll make the announcement today and it won’t excite progressives, most of whom are probably hoping that a different Florida congressman, Alan Grayson, will challenge Murphy for the nomination.
Murphy is younger than me, but he and I did attend high school in the same community: me at Princeton High School and Murphy at the elite Lawrenceville School.
His greatest service to the Democratic Party was defeating Allen West in the 2012 election. He carried his Republican district with over 60% of the vote in 2014, and has been one of the best fundraisers around.
His voting record reflects his deep red district, but he has occasionally gone a bit further into the Republican/corporate camp than seems necessary. He supported the Benghazi commission, voted for a congressional override on the Keystone pipeline, opposed a crackdown on for-profit college scam artists, and has voted to trim the Affordable Care Act on the margins, despite opposing its repeal.
It’s hard to predict how he’d vote as a statewide office holder. To use one recent example, Kirsten Gillibrand also had a very centrist voting record when she served in a competitive seat in the House of Representatives, but became much more progressive when she was elected to the Senate. The same thing might happen with Murphy.
Having said that, his father is a Republican and Murphy donated the maximum to Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign. He appeared to turn against the GOP only after Obama was elected and the Tea Party snapped into existence.
People considering Alan Grayson won’t have to worry very much about how he’ll vote. They have to consider, instead, the way he completely imploded in his first term in office and was absolutely crushed in his then-competitive district. They have to consider his character and whether he’ll sabotage his political career and electability (or re-electability).
Back in 2009, prior to Grayson failing to crack 40% in his first reelection bid, I told you exactly why I didn’t see Grayson as a good fit for competitive seats and why I would never recommend him to my readers. That has not changed, at all. Since then, my suspicions about his political instincts were confirmed by his thumping defeat.
As for my estimation of his character? Well, reading stuff like this doesn’t help.
The bizarre bigamy trial for the estranged wife of Florida Rep. Alan Grayson opened Monday with a day of testimony meant to help prove his spouse was actually wed to another man when the couple exchanged vows 24 years ago.
At stake in the trial — the start of which had been delayed since January after the congressman’s spouse, Lolita Grayson, underwent emergency surgery to have her leaking breast implants removed — is the couple’s $30 million fortune.
So, no, I would never put any eggs in Alan Grayson’s basket. There are things I like about him and he’s certainly smart and entertaining. But given a choice between these two flawed candidates, I’d only tell you: NOT GRAYSON.
If someone else gets in the race, I’d be eager to see if they’re someone I could actually get excited about.
I think Murphy can win this seat regardless of whether or not Rubio runs for reelection. Grayson might be able to win an open seat, but I wouldn’t trust him to keep it even if he did win.
More options, please.
You saw what happened with Charlie Crist. Why would any Democrat vote for Murphy when he votes for the Benghazi bullcrap? What makes you think he’s not going to be another Manchin or Mary Landrieu, if not worse? What’s the PVI of his district?
Winning with over 60% of the vote in his district is probably the single best indicator you could ask for if you’re asking me about electability. Then you have to drill down and find out why so many Republicans voted for him and figure out if there’s a reason the believe that he won’t translate that on the statewide level.
I’m not an expert on his district, but his constituents were clearly very pleased with his first term, while Grayson’s turned on him with real savagery. The distinction couldn’t get more stark.
Would Murphy be another Landrieu or Manchin?
Yeah, that’s a distinct possibility, although Florida is a lot friendlier for Democrats than Louisiana and West Virginia, so he wouldn’t act that way by any perceived necessity. In fact, he’d have a lot more room to support the party statewide, if he’s inclined that way.
I think he’s be a lot more like Tom Carper or Kent Conrad than Manchin, which is problematic enough.
I’m not an expert on his district, but his constituents were clearly very pleased with his first term, while Grayson’s turned on him with real savagery.
Because Grayson’s district at the time was like a lot of other ones? Ones a Democrat can win somewhat easily in a presidential year, but not in non-presidential years barring something nutty happening?
I think he’s be a lot more like Tom Carper or Kent Conrad than Manchin, which is problematic enough.
Except Florida should be better for us than either North Dakota or even Delaware.
Alan Grayson lost in 2010 as an incumbent 56%-38%.
Try to absorb that for a minute. He wasn’t under indictment. He hadn’t been plausibly accused of corruption. He just got thumped.
Yes, 2010 was a midterm and he might have lost no matter how he served in his first term in office.
But 2014 was a midterm, too.
Let’s look at the numbers:
Grayson 2008 (presidential): 52-48 +4
Grayson 2010 (midterm): 38-56 -16
Net change: -20
Murphy 2012 (presidential): 50.4-49.6 +0.8
Murphy 2014 (midterm): 60-40 +20
Net change: +19.2
Do you still want to go on arguing your point?
Do we know what kind of candidate the GOP put up in ’14 in Murphy’s district? Is it really heavily GOP? What’s the PVI? Wikipedia says Murphy’s district is a swing district. This:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/14/the-31-house-democrats-that-voted-for-the-
keystone-xl-pipeline-mapped/
says Murphy’s district is an R+3.
Sure —
2012 Murphy ran against the one term incumbent Allen West. Barely winning because incumbents, even ones as crazy as West, have an advantage.
2014 – opponent Carl J Domino 69 years old, had been term limited in 2010, and lost elections for other offices in 2010 and 2012.
Grayson won in the 2008 DEM wave election. Defeated by Webster in 2010 who was reelected in 2012 and 2014. Grayson ran and won in a newly created, heavily Democratic, open district in 2012.
Interestingly enough, I just received Murphy’s fundraising email. Let the games begin.
“The perfect is the enemy of the possible” An imperfect democrat,imho, is better than an imperfect republican.
A Democrat who votes like a Republican is of value only to the Party power structure. You might as well stay home.
One senator, in a minority, isn’t going to make that much difference. Even less in a majority.
It’s all bloc-voting now. Look at Maine with Collins, or Manchin in WV. What borderline legislation has either of them pulled across the finish line, or killed off?
This is what happens when a political party gets shut out of statewide offices and a majority of congressional districts for a generation.
There is no one else in FL for Democrats to support in a 2016 challenge to Rubio who will be running for reelection.
Grayson can’t win. It was highly questionable before the issue of his marriage/family became public. It’s simply to bizarre and therefore, not many voters can overlook or relate to his personal mess.
Murphy is a DINO and has no political portfolio. If by some strange twist of fate he actually won, he’d have a good chance to hold onto it for decades and wouldn’t be immune to entreaties from the GOP once the crazy-wing fever breaks.
What happens to these two House seats as Grayson (11th District is a safe DEM seat) and Murphy chase that Senate seat? Will we see the return of Alan West.
This race is not where FL Democrats/progressives should put their time and money in 2016. As it currently stands, they’d have a difficult time fielding a replacement for the then 76 year old Sen Nelson in 2018 should he choose to retire. Democrats would be better served by focusing on down-ticket races throughout the state. Fielding younger, credible, and better Democrats. (Gwen Graham is already 52 years old and only two months into her first in elective office.)
Graham is awful too!!
Graham or Wasserman-Shultz? About as good as it gets for DEMs with name recognition and under the age of 55.
Actually, both are!! But DWS is worse because she’s the de-facto leader of the Florida Democratic Party.
at the top, you won’t get people to run at the bottom. And given how gerrymandered the districts are candidate recruitment is a nightmare. So where these young fresh dems are supposed to run in ’16 is not clear to me.
I really don’t buy the out of state read on Florida. We have lost the last two Govs races by a whisker – and in electorates vastly different than we will face in ’16. Obama carried the state twice and won it twice. Democrats have been more competitive in Florida at the top of the ticket than at the bottom.
It makes no sense not to focus on the Senate Seat to me.
at the top, you won’t get people to run at the bottom.
How do you get competition at the top if there aren’t officeholders at the bottom well positioned for a promotion?
As you mention, Obama won twice at the tippy-top; so, where will all the good candidates at the bottom running in 2008 and 2012? Gerrymandering is an incumbent protection racket. But not if the opposition thinks beyond one election cycle at a time. The long slog instead of exciting but hopeless attacks every two to four years.
It is always curious to me how quickly people want to elevate people out of the forums in which they can really give the right wing hell. Grayson in the House is perfect — sort of the counterpart to Newt in the House.
One candidate is not going to change the tone of the Senate or the Congress.
Okay so did the Politico story mention Grayson? What evidence is there that ‘most (progressives) are probably hoping’ for a Grayson challenge. When I read about this at DKos last week the main angle was whether Crist would get in or avoid it since he’s a buddy of Murphys. I did see a few third options thrown about in the comments none if whom were Grayson.
Its like half the post is made of straw.
DKos was the home of the Weiner/Grayson (or was it Grayson/Weiner) true progressive ticket challenge to Obama for 2012
We need this seat. Rubio is obviously doing nothing with it except promoting himself. I’m in favor of Murphy because we don’t seem to have an alternative that’s viable. The new president will need a Democrat in this seat to advance her agenda. We need to get the kid elected and hope for the best.
We need to win it, but we need to win it less than we need a true progressive running for it.
“More options, please.”
Good luck finding one who isn’t “Florida Man”.