Here is what appears to me to be a pretty good primer on Yemen that concludes that Egypt and Saudi Arabia will make things worse by intervening and that all outside parties, including the U.S., will regret getting involved there.
The other day, I somewhat cynically (and jokingly) suggested that Egypt’s junta represents the closest thing to a “moderate” Sunni organized fighting force and that they should invade the Arabian peninsula and restore order. I had Iraq and Syria more in mind than Yemen, but I am not really surprised that I anticipated their involvement abroad in the larger Sunni/Shi’a fight.
However, they are entering the fight in Yemen in an alliance with Saudi Arabia, which is a major difference between this go-round and Egypt’s disastrous involvement in the 1960’s. As for the Saudis, just yesterday morning I was pondering why we give them all this military equipment if they won’t even use it in a situation like this. So, count me as the least surprised person in the world to discover this morning that the Saudis are mobilizing their troops.
Here’s what is going down:
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain—five of the six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council—decided to intervene in Yemen in response to a request by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, they said in a joint statement Thursday. The U.S. plans to provide logistical and intelligence support, the White House said late Wednesday.
Egypt is also coordinating participation in the campaign by its air force and navy, and could send a ground force if necessary, the country’s foreign ministry said in a statement.
Turkey also said on Thursday it supports the Saudi Arabia-led military operation, condemning the Houthi militia’s “unilateral” assault on Aden.
Pretty much the whole Sunni world is behind this effort, with countries as far afield as Pakistan, Jordan and Sudan also offering support. But, I fail to see how this Saudi-led effort will bring about more moderation or an answer to ISIS.
The question is how much aid to ISIS flows through the House of Saud, like the House of Saud ran al Qaeda all these years.
This has nothing whatever to do with IS, the Houthi are Shiites. It’s the Sunni/Shiite conflict that’s involved here. We need to keep our internecine conflicts straight.
Also, too, Iraq and Syria are not on the Arabian peninsula.
I’m about ready to either buy a program so I can keep all the players on all the teams straight, or reconfigure that extra guest room and turn it into a War Room w/National Geographic maps of the region and colored pins for Sunni, Shia, ISIS etc. This is getting complicated.
Sunni governments ganging up on Yemen’s Houthis. Not at all like their responses to ISIS and al Queda. OBL would approve.
You have asked a very important question, and one whose true answer may surprise many.
Putin has reportedly called for Iran to stop whatever its doing in Yemen.
Personally the Houthis seem like the most reasonable of the groups who could end up in power there.
The best option for the USA is close ALL Bases in the Middle East, pull out all personnel and equipment. Then cut ALL aide to the Middle East. Let these countries fix their problems as they see fit. Right now US involvement is not appreciated nor wanted. Thus pull out and let these countries do their things. They just might decide that help from the USA is needed and wanted or they work things out themselves. Either way it would be a win/win for the USA.
The Sunni Arabs have just shown their true colors. For years they have allowed AQ to operate in Yemen. Yes, they did tell us about the bomb in the printer thingy. They have been fine with American troops and drones operating in Yemen….yet appear to be willing to use all the western military training/arms on a Shia minority that appears to have totally disrupted AQ in Yemen. Why not go after ISIS? The Sunnis are afraid of ISIS.
It’s sort of a strange situation evolving. The international legal rationale is that Hadi is the legally “elected” president of Yemen and that the Houthis carried out a coup. Of course, when legitimate is the existing government and when it is the coup is very flexible with the US these days.
But this action coincides with (1) contination of the nuclear talks with Iran; (2) the US, Saudi, and Gulf States decision to provide air support in Tikrit for the Iraqi government (which means also for the Iranian support there, the Sadrists, and other Shi’a militias) and against the supposedly Salafist Daesh/ISIL/ISIS self-styled Islamic State. (3) The pan-Sunni coalition defending the government of Yemen against a popular Houthi regime that nonetheless has caused refugee movement into al Quaeda in the Arabian Peninsula territories and reignited the mood of secession in Aden.
There are some linkages among these unfolding events that the public does not yet understand that the leaders of the countries involve probably do understand and might be maneuvering toward some sort of consensus for the Middle East. At the moment Bibi and Israel are the odd ones out. In the short term that strengthens Obama’s standing and credibility as a more honest broker. Whether that is what is going on remains to be seen. The case to be made at this point is that all of the leaders in the region have more to be gained going forward from movement towards order and resolution of conflict than from ratcheting up the disorder. The tricky part will be getting sufficient consensus on what order looks like.
For the moment, Iran is the only potential protector of Houthi interests. It is the political game rather than the military one (a decades-long disaster) that will restabilize the region if it indeed regains stability.
I dedicate this to the Congressman complaining about America being on the “same” side as Iran.
If you understand the current KAKA in the Middle East comes down to RELIGION, and there aint no greater Hate than Religion.
I wrote this on February 11, 2015.
Jordan is supposed to have the best intelligence in the ME so we team them up with their fellow Sunnis from Saudi Arabia( this war is Really about Saudi Arabia extremism)and they PLAY either the Allies, or the Russians. You have the Shiites play as the Allies or Russia, and AMERICA becomes the AIR FORCE for both parties. Allies AND Russia battling the Nazis from WWII, with the U.S. doing Only the bombing for them.
The two sides both have intelligence to give our Bombers the necessary information OUR Men
usually provide on the ground.
The first time one side gets us to bomb the other side instead of ISIS, that side is NOW on their own!
any opinions?
What would possess you to think Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Sunni regimes have any desire to provide an answer for ISIS? As far as they’re concerned, ISIS is a nice check on Iran’s Shi’ia allies.
We ought to stay out of this.
Meeting the Houthis from March 17.
It’s a very complex situation, with a bloody history. Reducing it to Sunni vs. Shia is an invitation to making the wrong choices about what, if anything, outsiders should do.
Cheers,
Scott.