Sigh. It’s tough to endure things like this Henry Enten piece that argue that it’s well-nigh impossible to get to Hillary’s left without being a socialist senator from Vermont. It’s one thing to look at some metrics and some past statements and make an effort to compare former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley’s historical liberalism to Hillary Clinton’s record. But Enten goes a lot further than this and makes a bunch of mistakes in the process.
Let’s begin with some caveats about the metrics. O’Malley was a governor who never served in Congress. Clinton has never been a governor and her voting record reflects the fact that she served New York State, not the country as a whole. Taking a look at fundraising comes with similar problems, but it’s a valuable exercise. Public pronouncements aren’t tremendously different than voting records in terms of being influenced by whatever constituency you are attempting to serve at the moment. The mayor of Baltimore can be expected to sound more liberal than the governor of Maryland, even if they are the same person at different points in their career. The same is true of a First Lady, senator in the opposition from New York, Secretary of State, and candidate in a hotly contested Democratic presidential primary.
I think we can just put most of these metrics aside. For Hillary Clinton, the best indication of what she will do is what her husband did. This isn’t because they are the same person who would always make the same decisions. It’s because political families are families. They develop loyal patrons, fundraisers, political organizers, endorsers, staff, reporters, opinion leaders, lobbying groups, etc. On the margins, Hillary may differ on tactics. Here or there, she may have a different strategic vision. But House Clinton is still House Clinton, and it isn’t going to shed its skin any more than House Bush is going to shed its skin. I think it’s safe to say that there is a whole lot less daylight between Bill and Hillary Clinton than there was between the two George Bushes.
The biggest difference between Bill and Hillary Clinton isn’t their political inclinations or instincts but the passage of time between their campaigns. Bill Clinton had to run for nation’s highest office in a period of conservative ascendency while Hillary is running on the tale end of a two-term Democratic presidency. The demographics of the country have changed and so, too, have the country’s attitudes on a variety of issues. To put it in the simplest terms, if Bill Clinton were running for president in 2016, he would sound a whole lot more liberal than he did when he ran for president in 1992 and 1996. If Hillary becomes the next president, she’ll have a more liberal agenda than her husband did for a very simple reason: because she can.
This is a filter that we need to apply to the Clintons, and I think it works in their favor for the most part. But not completely. Remember what I said about political families being families? Well, the Clintons attracted a certain strain of supporters in their formative stage precisely because they were willing to break with liberals and liberal interest groups. And these supporters now form the spine of their political machine. Their central nervous system is acclimated to doing battle with the left regardless of what either of them might choose to say out of political expediency today. Can Team Clinton ever truly play nice with the core of the Obama coalition?
I don’t think it has to be a relationship fraught with conflict and ill-feelings, but I also don’t think you can get the Rahm Emanuel wing of the party to ever play nice with the Bill de Blasio wing, or vice-versa.
Now, I don’t think Martin O’Malley is entrenched in either of these camps, but it’s certainly possible for him to reach out to the de Blasio camp and offer to be their champion. I don’t see how he is really constricted in this by any past statements and he needs to build a much broader donor base for himself anyway, so it’s not like he’d be cutting off his nose to spite his face.
Let me be careful here to be clear about what I’m criticizing. If Enten wants to argue that O’Malley is not going to win the Democratic nomination because the left is by and large happy with Hillary Clinton, I agree with that analysis. It’s highly unlikely that anyone can do enough damage to Clinton to cost her her chance at the general election. If she doesn’t make it, it will be some group of problems of her own making that causes her downfall.
But Enten is making a different argument, which is that it doesn’t make any sense for O’Malley to approach this contest by carving out a position to Clinton’s left. But that’s the only thing that makes sense. It worked for Obama, and it can work again. And the reason it worked for Obama was because Team Clinton occupies the center-left with all their hawkish foreign policy goals and willingness to break with liberal orthodoxy.
If you ask an old hand how to run a political campaign, they’ll tell you that people want to feel like a candidate understands their problems and is on their side, and they don’t like politicians who flip-flop or change positions. Hillary Clinton’s strength is the strength of the Clinton brand. But it’s also her weakness. If you’re McDonald’s and the people want health food, you have a problem.
For O’Malley, it could be that his record makes him look like Burger King, but no one knows that. His brand is undeveloped. Howard Dean’s brand was undeveloped, too, which is why he briefly caught fire with liberals despite his ‘A’ rating from the National Rifle Association and other centrist proclivities.
Enten thinks that O’Malley lacks a signature issue to take to the left and doubts that anti-Wall Street populism offers an answer. My question is, then why is Elizabeth Warren so wildly popular?
Whatever his prior rhetoric, O’Malley has some serious liberal credentials, including on abolishing the death penalty and legalizing gay marriage. What he lacks is the voice of a progressive. He sounds too technocratic, like Michael Dukakis. So, how to solve that?
Start talking like a progressive.
It’s a no-brainer.
All of which just goes to show the limits of 538-ism.
I don’t think it has to be a relationship fraught with conflict and ill-feelings, but I also don’t think you can get the Rahm Emanuel wing of the party to ever play nice with the Bill de Blasio wing, or vice-versa.
How did BdB get his start in politics? At least big time politics? Also, O’Malley is from the Clinton wing of the party. He used to be a DLC’er when that existed. So he’s just as much of a fraud as Edwards was, if we’re going there.
I addressed that.
If he’s Burger King and no one knows that, he’s free to become Whole Foods.
Pieces like Enten’s are intended to ideologically corral candidates into ineffectiveness.
Zero tolerance in Baltimore? That’s gonna sell. Heh.
There’s no way he can muscle in past Sanders without getting the support of the netroots. This may have been possible before the Baltimore riots but that incident probably sunk his candidacy for this cycle and probably for the rest of 2016. He needs the support of the netroots to break past the single-digits but why would the netroots support O’Malley when they have Sanders instead.
Ironically, I think that he would’ve been a much stronger candidate than Sanders and about the level of Clinton (due to his superstar status in the Latino media) in the general election if he could get past the primary. But there’s no way he’s getting past either of them. His image has been irrevocably tainted by the riots.
We have the example before us of President Dean, to remind us of just how important the netroots are.
The lesson to be learned from Dean is “don’t cross big media”. Which limits the Party to neoliberals like Obama and Clinton and Bush. Oops! That last one wasn’t a Democrat. I think. It’s so hard to tell the parties apart.
If Dean had been elected, how would he be any less “neo-liberal” (I assume you mean DINO) than Obama?
I’m sure. But maybe you are right and he was a big liar like Obama.
Is this supposed to be snark? If so, it’s pretty weak beer, DXM.
The netroots have been getting increasingly powerful since 2008. Elizabeth Warren was the super-megaton fundraiser of 2012, contemptuously beating out any other House or Senate candidate. Hell, she came within a stone’s throw of outraising the entire government slate (including state, governor, and Congressional races) of BFD states like New Jersey and New York that year.
Yeah, they’re not big enough on their own merits to get the lion’s share of the pie. But they are a major player now. And O’Malley’s only shot was to pick up their support.
Whom have they managed to get the mainstream party — the state chairs, the governors, etch — to accept against their will?
Whom have they managed to pick off in contested primaries, by offering candidates to the left of the party’s people?
It looks to me like all their rise to power stems from paddling with the current for a change…
1.) If that’s your argument, then I must ask: what candidates have Koch and other shady billionaires have forced on the GOP against the establishment’s? I suppose that since Gingrich, South Carolina aside, crashed and burned that means that Adelson and the coal industry isn’t a major player in GOP electoral politics.
2.) The DailyKos/FireDogLake/et al. left isn’t the same as the netroots. It seems that way, since they’re the biggest websites and all, but have you seen their actual 2012/2014 site fundraisers, especially compared to what OpenSecrets posts?
They’re not nothing, but the sad fact of the matter is that the top five liberal aggregator sites could disappear into ether and the netroots’ fundraising power would only be moderately impacted.
If by ‘moderately impacted’ you mean ‘small, and made still smaller’, well, then yes, I agree with you.
No. The netroots are big. And they are big now. The fundraising tides have shifted considerably since the start of Obama’s election. The netroots are a major player in Democratic fundraising and are thus a major player in Democratic electoral politics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/upshot/how-actblue-became-a-powerful-force-in-fund-raising.html?_r
=0&abt=0002&abg=1
I don’t think using ActBlue as your definition of netroots really works
Many mainstream Democrats use them for their online fundraising, just because it’s easier than setting something up independently. They don’t really impact or even ask to impact the positions of the candidates
Wow when is Elizabeth Warren running for President? – right now she seems to be playing the netroots
O’Malley does indeed have brand. That brand was established when he was Mayor of Baltimore and cooked the books to show crime reduction in his attempt to become Governor. His actions caused good reform police leadership brought in from New York to resign in disgust according to the creator of The Wire. He hurt a lot of people and his actions are a big reason Baltimore is in the mess it is in today. This is more of a character flaw that a mistake. He will never get my vote even if he is the nominee regardless of how liberal he now talks
So you would want Bush to be elected instead then? I don’t get this sort of purity. We’ll have a contest between two far-less-than-ideal politicians. Still, the less evil and insane of the two will be FAR less insane and evil. I think we have an obligation to support that.
Choice of which thug mugs us. Let’s choose the smaller guy. He;ll hurt us less.
It’s not purity. It’s drinkable water. You ask us to choose between malarial water and ebola water and chide us for purity. I say if I can’t get artesian water can I at least get chlorinated tap water?
I’m sure I’d vote for O’Malley against Bush if it came to that, but it won’t. What we’re talking about now is the primary, where you might be able to be a purist without hurting the party, and I’m most likely to vote for Sanders. As a second choice, so far, I truly prefer Clinton to O’Malley, because she’s shown some ability to walk back the bad choices of the late 1990s, and he just hasn’t. She has a better background to begin with, with her health care plan to the left of Obama’s and the famous hug of Mrs. Arafat, and I think she wants to be in that place next year.
I like O’Malley. I think he could be a compelling candidate.
His counterpoint to the Dave Simon criticism has been that he was elected and re-elected in Baltimore with large majorities in the AA community, and he has rejected the claims of cooking the books. I think he can also argue that at the time “zero-tolerance” was a reasonable policy, but that now it isn’t.
Even if you like Hillary, she needs opposition in the primary. Unless she’s challenged, she seems to have this predisposition to stay out of the press and let her machine carry her forward. That’s not the way it works (or at least it shouldn’t). She needs to show that she herself has the stamina and the drive to work hard for the nomination. And the same goes for Bernie and Martin and the rest.
Anyone who has been in politics for a decade or more has done things I don’t like. The question (to me) is – do they learn and change policies as the world changes? That doesn’t mean flip-flopping, that means adjusting policies for the times.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
The damage he did took years plus a hit television series to really show how toxic it was to turn the police force into an occupying army. The books were definitely cooked to show a false reduction in crime (except murder). Of course he would deny it. He did this for political gain then points to that success to justify it. No, he serves no purpose other than to strengthen Hillary and to make progressive ideas toxic when people consider the source. Hillary’s problem is Bernie because everything he says polls very high with most cutting across party lines. We can do anything if we stand together is a powerful message when coupled with a positive vision for America. O’Malley showed us what kind of a person he is when he had power. He hurt a lot of people to gain power. We should listen to what he did not his excuses today.
he has to run on what he did as Governor…both, the good and bad.
Meh, he kept hiking taxes and upping police violence. His record isn’t good. There’s a reason the state went Republican when he left.
The well off areas of MD hated him for raising taxes, the lower income areas hated him for bashing poor minorities and the police. Unless your sole issues are gay rights and womens rights, he was a disaster.
But then again, those are the two issues that count in the party now.
Don’t confuse ‘the party online’ with ‘the party’.
We here are by no means typical.
You obviously weren’t paying attention. Maryland went GOP this time because the Democratic nominee didn’t campaign for crap. He just assumed he’d win because Maryland was Democratic and all.
Just like Quinn in Illinois. Although in Quinn’s case he was seen (and was!) powerless against Speaker Madigan, the real Democratic power in Illinois.
Plus Quinn has always been a fairly poor politician especially campaigning
True. BTW, I saw on the Trib’s front page this morning that Rauner is vowing to destroy Madigan and Cullerton with a series of ads paid for by his billionaire buddies. Madigan, in turn, is saying in effect “bring it on” and plans to counter with a series of ads telling the people of Illinois what Rauner has actually officially proposed. I assume this is like the Right-to-Work bill that got zero votes, not even from Republicans. In fact, many Republicans made lame excuse to be absent from the floor during the vote.
BTW, isn’t it the Tribune’s job to be “telling the people of Illinois what Rauner has actually officially proposed.” No wonder newspapers are dying. my wife buys the Sunday Trib for the coupons. I used to read the comics and work the crossword puzzle but don’t any more. I stopped the editorial page long ago because it was bad for my blood pressure.
as much as I dislike Madigan and think he’s ultimately what’s wrong with IL politics right now, Rauner is the bigger issue and I’m going to focus on opposing him
once Rauner is out I’ll return my focus to getting Madigan out
With you 100% on this one.
Clinton Foundation is a problem to me, speaking of family. In general aren’t family foundations a way to avoid taxes, the charitable work only what is required by law to minimize taxes. Is the Clinton Foundation a family foundation along those lines? also, the vulnerability because of foundation exposure: