The last time someone named “Clinton” was on a presidential ballot in Arizona, they won 47% of the vote and carried the state. Of course, Bill Clinton was the incumbent president and he had a little help from H. Ross Perot who siphoned off some of the proto-Tea Party vote. But, still, he won.
Yet, 47% was a high water mark. In the four elections since 1996, the Democrat has received either 44% or 45% every single time. That’s interesting because it’s been so stable despite major differences in the political climate in each election and despite Arizona’s well-known explosive growth of the Latino population.
Next year, Sen. John McCain will seek reelection and he might expect that he’ll have a little help from the Republican at the top of the ticket. The historical record largely supports that assumption, but there are two factors that should concern him. The first I have already mentioned. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996, so it’s conceivable that House Clinton could cobble together another winning coalition. The second is that eventually the changing demographics of the state are going to show up and cause a shift. The Democrats won’t be trapped in the 45% range forever, and 2016 could be the year this becomes evident.
Republicans in the state seem highly confident that McCain will cruise to reelection despite getting a strong challenger in Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. What’s notable about what they’re saying is that they think they can tie Obamacare around Fitzpatrick’s neck and sink her campaign. They tried this last year in a great year for Republicans and they failed to knock her off, but they think a statewide race will be different.
The thing is, even former Governor Jan Brewer realized that the Medicaid expansion in the Affordable Care Act was a good deal for Arizona and she used it to cover about 300,000 Arizonans. It turns out, all the hyperventilating about the law was just hot air. And if you ask people about it, they support it right up until the moment you call it Obamacare.
The Medicaid expansion was broadly supported in polls conducted by Brewer’s office as she sought to implement the program. But whenever “ObamaCare” was included in one of the questions, “support fell off the table,” [GOP strategist Matthew] Benson said.
“That term and that issue are going to be a huge problem” for Kirkpatrick, he added.
You know? I’m thinking, not so much.
The assumption here is that statewide President Obama is unpopular and that the voters there will be voting for the Republican nominee in strong numbers. But the election should be relatively close regardless of who wins, and there’s at least a possibility that the Democrat will carry the state.
If John McCain is going to rely much on Kirkpatrick’s vote for Obamacare, he’s setting himself up for a big defeat.
Let it be so.
