It’s never good when actuaries collectively fall down on their job and fail to make good predictions, and it appears that this has happened with their efforts to estimate the total cost of claims under Obamacare health care plans. But let’s take a look at what caused the problem:

…Marinan R. Williams, chief executive of the Scott & White Health Plan in Texas, which is seeking a 32 percent rate increase, said the requests showed that “there was a real need for the Affordable Care Act.”

“People are getting services they needed for a very long time,” Ms. Williams said. “There was a pent-up demand. Over the next three years, I hope, rates will start to stabilize.”

…In its proposal to increase rates by an average of 25 percent for more than 397,000 consumers, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina cited “inpatient costs, particularly in treatment of cancer and heart conditions, emergency room utilization, and cost for specialty drug medications” to treat hepatitis C, breast cancer and cystic fibrosis.

We had a bunch of people who had cancer, hepatitis, cystic fibrosis and other fairly urgent medical needs who were going untreated because they could not afford or access adequate care. You know what happens when you let millions of people go without preventative care or treatment for their progressive diseases?

Either they die, or it costs more money than it should have to keep them alive. You can consider this a bill that the past delivered to the present.

You want to know what is exactly like this?

The cost of maintaining critical infrastructure like tunnels, bridges, roads, railway tracks, and airports. When we finally get around to addressing our infrastructure needs, don’t be surprised if it costs more than the experts predict.

If you act stupid and greedy for any period of time, there’s a very big price tag for that.

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