Far too much data in this one to absorb easily or quickly. Poll taken July 4-6. (I’m going to bookmark it for future reference.) But a few things stand out and aren’t independent from most of the detailed responses. 1) Old people follow the news; young people don’t. Factor in that Faux news is a major source for old people. Thus, the percentage of old people with an opinion on all the questions is the highest. “Don’t know” is the highest for the youngest age group. 2) High correlation between Party ID and specific opinions. And Independents, at least in this poll, tend to fall in between DEM and REP opinons. However, that interpretation may be superficial and therefore, misleading.
What I direct your attention to today is Page 74. Favorability of Donald Trump. Total “Don’t Know” is a mere 9%. Only Jeb(!), among GOP candidates, comes near that low level of “Don’t Know” at 16%. Only among the olds does Trump have a combined “Very Favorable” and “Somewhat Favorable” rating above 33% and at 59% it is far above all the other age groups in which he scores a combined 60% “Very Unfavorable” and “Somewhat Unfavorable.”
Somewhat and Very Unfavorable by Race:
White: 55%
Black: 73%
Hispanic: 61%
(Trump must be taking comfort from that 28% positive rating from Hispanics as he continues to do his darndest to increase the number of Latinos that hate him. )
Women hate him (62%) more than men (52%). And those with family income >$40,000 hate him more than those <$40,000. (That would be skewed by lower income seniors.)
A (D) bag of rocks could beat this guy. Make it a Trump/Palin GOP ticket and they’d stuggle to get half the GOP vote in the general election.
Jeb(!) Fav v. Unfav are 34% and 50% respectively. Ouch.
Hillary kicks butt with the lowest percentage of “Don’t Know” at 6%. Democrats might want to take note that her Fav v. Unfav is 45% v. 50%. The 45% Fav is good at this point and she has time and room to increase her favorables and reduce her unfavorables. However, her Very Fav v. Very Unfav ratio of 24% v. 40% isn’t good (except in comparison with Trump’s 18% v. 46%)
Sanders’ “Don’t Know” is 36%. Fav/unfav 32%/32%. Fav:Unfav by demographics:
White: 31%:36%
Black: 37%:29%
Hispanic: 40%:14%
Male: 31%:38%
Female: 33%:26%
Sanders best Fav/UnFav age demographic is 30-44. Fav: 35% and Unfav: 24%. (Not the first time I’ve noted of late a stronger left lean in this age group.)
Looking at those >64 years old, Clinton’s “Don’t know” is 2% and Sanders’ is 18%. The oldsters aren’t keen on Sanders –30% Very Unfav and 19% Somewhat Unfav. Not good. Clinton’s are worse (and likely more intractable) at 60% Very Unfav and 6% Somewhat Unfav.
As this is just an early snapshot and the sample size is middling, don’t see any reason to attempt any interpolation calculations to adjust for Sanders current much lower Name ID. It’s entirely possible that as more >64 year olds come to know Sanders that they will dislike him as much as they dislike Clinton and LIbs and Mods may never like him as much as they like Clinton. However, those asseting that Sanders’ appeal is limited to white liberals are full of bull. So far, he’s performing better with blacks and latinos than whites. Likely completely in line with minorities that skew liberal and Democratic.
