For a while there I was beginning to doubt that it would be possible to strike a deal with Iran that all five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (plus Germany) could agree to, but somehow Secretary of State John Kerry got it done. He can begin preparing for his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech right now.
Yes, there will always be critics, but the president said it best this morning.
“Tough talk from Washington does not solve problems. Hard-nosed diplomacy, leadership that has united the world’s major powers offers a more effective way to verify that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon.” – President Barack Obama, July 14th, 2015
Before you get bogged down in the debate about the details of the deal, make sure that you stop to appreciate the single most important accomplishment here. We live in a world with nuclear weapons, which is a big problem. We have to have a non-proliferation strategy that the international community can agree on and make every effort to enforce. What’s key here is that the world united to say that it’s very important that we don’t sit back and do nothing while new countries get nuclear weapons. In this sense, the accomplishment isn’t really specific to Iran. The most significant thing is that we can agree that non-proliferation is the goal and come together to prevent the spread of nuclear weaponry. If Paraguay decides tomorrow that it wants a nuclear weapons program, we have a credible system in place to deter them.
This is huge.
Now, when it comes to Iran specifically, there is so much to say that I don’t even know where to begin. I will probably write about different elements of what I think this will mean as this debate goes on over the next couple of months.
One simple thing I’d like to address up front is that Iran has been an implacable foe of the United States (and vice-versa) for thirty-six years, and that isn’t going to change overnight. But there is the real potential for a thaw in the hostile relations between our two countries, and this makes Israel and our (Sunni) Arab friends and enemies very uncomfortable.
Let’s be blunt here for a moment and just admit to ourselves that the Sunni Arab world is a complete basketcase right now, and that the most important feature in the region is the rise of the Islamic State. When people tell you that the ayatollahs in Iran are religious fanatics, just remind yourself of what Saudi Arabia has inspired and financed in the form of the Taliban, al-Qaeda and now ISIS. Our Sunni allies have not been very good allies, and while we have strategic and economic interests in maintaining decent relationships with them, we have no good reason to prefer their ideology or their form of religion to what we see coming out of Teheran.
The Obama administration has already made it as clear as can be that they will not let the right-wing in Israel dictate to us how we should treat Iran’s government. Our interests and the settlers’ interests do not jibe, and Israeli citizens will have to make a decision about whether or not they want to be allies with the United States or just the worst neoconservative elements of the Republican Party. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried and failed to scuttle this deal and all he got out of it was damaged relations with the Democratic Party and much of America’s citizenry. That being said, the Obama administration has no intention of letting Iran threaten Israel or its Arab neighbors. If they want continued good relations and protection from the United States, they can have those things, and now with less of a threat of Iran suddenly announcing that they’ve built a nuclear weapons program.
So, this deal does have the potential (and I’ve barely scratched the surface here) of fundamentally altering the status quo in the Middle East, including how we weigh the importance of each of our alliances there. Not too long ago, our foreign policy elites thought our biggest problem in the region was the crumbling containment policy we had in place for Iraq’s secular Ba’ath Party. Only a few years ago, we were on board with Israel and Saudi Arabia as seeing Iranian proxies like Assad in Syria and Hizbollah in Lebanon as the biggest threats. But that was an error. As 9/11 should have made clear, the biggest threat in the region emanates from the Saudi regime and the ideology that they export around the world. In that fight, Iran is roughly the same kind of ally as Joseph Stalin was against Adolph Hitler. Their regime is ideologically loathsome but still preferable to the alternative, and they’re a critical bulwark against the spread of Islamic State.
We do not want to take sides in what is essentially a sectarian holy war in the Middle East, but we do now have to recognize that going around endlessly repeating that Iran is a major sponsor of terrorism looks a little silly when they’re fighting ISIS. It’s not that we want to take Iran’s side in this fight against our Sunni Arab allies, but we needed to get things better calibrated, and this deal will allow us the freedom to do that.
As I said at the outset, the most important thing here is proving that the international community can do non-proliferation, but it’s also key that this deal will give us a chance to take a look at the mess in the Middle East within a new paradigm. The old paradigm was not only not working, it created a hole so deep that the region is at risk of never being able to crawl out of it.
While our traditional allies are understandably anxious, I think they’ve earned this anxiety. And, really, if we take Einstein’s definition of insanity being the belief that doing the same thing over and over again will give you a different result, then our allies are insane.
Let them adjust to this new reality, and maybe they will behave better in the near future.
And who was one of the first bed-wetters after the deal was announced? One of Netanyahoo’s U.S. tools, The Corporal(aka Jeffrey Goldberg).
There are two fights:
It is insane to think we know how each will be resolved, or that they even WILL be resolved.
The only rational policy is to mitigate the risk from the conflicts.
This agreement represents an implementation of risk management.
It’s no more modernity vs. Islam than it is modernity vs. Christianity. It’s modernity vs. fundamentalism (in all its forms).
I hope that this is the seed of something you are writing that shows up in the Washington Monthly. It is on target.
In my elation that a deal got done, I forgot this extremely important point this morning. The US did not unilaterally scuttle the Non-Proliferation Treaty on Nuclear Weapons (which I interpret to be the a neo-con goal in their campaign of unilateralism and war). Instead, the US and the major nuclear powers that are withing the NPT reaffirmed their determination to negotiate away nuclear weapons through diplomacy that allows all sides to have some assurances of national security without nuclear weapons.
Not only does this shore up the diplomatic power of the NPT, it puts those nations outside the NPT on notice that at some point they will have to come within an arms reduction framework with verification. It also signals that the major nuclear powers still aim toward a nuclear-free world. They have been up close to crises that could have been catastrophic; they know that nuclear weapons are essentially useless in practice. And most of the world now knows that the role of the attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were much less important than the minor issue of allowing Hirohito to remain with a minor loss of face; he became a visible symbolic leader.
It is the Democrats in Congress that most worry me on ratifying this agreement. They are skittish on diplomacy, even successful diplomacy. How many Republican votes are required if all Democrats agree? How much of the implementation of this agreement requires Congressional approval? If Iran acts in good faith, even without the formal agreements being ratified, does the President has sufficient executive power to reciprocate?
Is there a way that the deal can actually be implemented, sidelining the hardliners on both sides?
It sounds like it’s a UN Security Council resolution and not a treaty so the Senate will not have to ratify.
The trade sanctions will have to be lifted at some point by Congress but that’s a few years away and not really critical.
Just to be clear this is what I’ve gleamed off news reports and listening to the President’s speech this morning.
North Korea/India/Pakistan. But Israel isn’t going to get that message and that means permanent instability.
On the Democrats in the Senate, I’m with the optimists; I don’t think the haters can get around Obama to a veto-proof score 67 votes.
“How many Republican votes are required if all Democrats agree?”
My understanding is the deal that the White House made with the Senate is that they get a vote, but the President’s veto of a Senate majority rejection would only be overrode if twelve Democratic Senators joined all the Republicans in an override vote. As BooMan documented at the time, Senator Corker got rolled.
Today’s good Dem Caucus news: Manchin was making good sounds about the agreement, in public and on the Senate floor. Bad news: Schumer was acting the fool.
I was actually pretty concise on that point.
Here’s the House Foreign Relations Committee’s first response. Their witnesses today:
Former Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) (L) co-chair of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, speaks about Iran while flanked by former CIA Director, retired Air Force Gen. Michael Hayden (C), and former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns (R) during a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill July 14, 2015 in Washington, DC. The committee is hearing testimony on the implications of a nuclear agreement with Iran.
Lots of “formers” in that bunch.
>>Lots of “formers” in that bunch.
you’re a better person than I; that’s the most polite word possible to describe them.
So if, we get a deal that keeps Iran from building a bomb for about 2 years, does that mean we could reduce financial aid to Israel? Maybe use some of that money to invest in some cyber security.
That might be the stick we’re using to keep Israel from unilaterally bombing Iran at this point.
I think the need to perform mid-air refueling in airspace they don’t own, and where permission is not forthcoming without US arm-twisting, has a lot more to do with that. IAF can’t do it any other way, and they’re not sending pilots on one-way missions.
Moreover, the IDF has told Netanyahu “No” twice already on his pending orders to strike Iran. Just like they told him “No” about an infantry invasion of Gaza. And that’s not from diplomatic or humanitarian concern about the Iranians. At least the IDF is clear on the catastrophic nature of war with Iran on them even if US members of Congress aren’t.
The DoD money that should be going for cybersecurity appears to be buying new offensive exploits. What possibly could go wrong?
I think the comparison of the Iran regime to Stalin is somewhat offbase. It is not in any way monolithic but seriously divided, and it is subject to public pressure of various kinds. It is more comparable to Putin in that there is unfortunately majority support for authoritarian rule, but that is subject to change and in fact changing as the new generation comes into its own. This is one of the very few cases in the history of the last six or seven decades where a US program of encouraging “moderates” makes any political sense, and getting rid of the sanctions is the way to do it.
Yes, I agree. Booman is brilliant but paints all too often with way too broad a brush. There are various elements in both the Shia and Suni worlds. Turkey is Suni. So is Morocco. The former is modern and European. The latter is tolerant and inclusive.
The Saudis have a devil’s pact with the Wahabis. Iran has been in a fundamentalist funk for a very long time but there is a vibrant, moderate, educated, forward-looking culture just beneath the surface yearning to break free.
“Sunni Arab world is a complete basketcase right now”
Very true and the Neo-Cons want it to stay this way so they can get the USA back into a (For their Profits) boots on the ground WAR again. As long as these people do not have to be at risk themselves they will never stop in their quest for riches and power.
No, it’s not very true. The main Suni powers in the region are politically backwards and messed up. The problem is not Suni Islam. The problem is the culture that predated it in places like Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen.
○ Big changes afoot in Obama Iran, arms control teams, as WMD czar Samore departs | Jan. 29, 2013 |
○ White House picks Liz Sherwood-Randall as new WMD Czar | March 2013 |
Damn traitors, look where czar Gary Samore re-entered politics a few weeks ago …
○ Robert Satloff, director WINEP, in Iran debate on France24
○ Hillary Clinton Highlights Her [Lack] of Credentials | May 2014 |
○ Our Hawk Running the State Department with USIP Support | June 2012 |
My recent diaries …
○ Netanyahu Has Failed Miserably …
○ Obama’s FP Legacy: On Verge of Reaching Iran Nuclear Deal
○ US Adding Pressure On Iran As Deadline Passes .. Again
I feel ya.
I hear you.
Frum’s telling the GOP presidential lemmings that “tough is back”.
Thank you BooMan. This is one of the smartest, most hopeful posts I’ve read anywhere in ages. From your fingertips to the center of the Universe.
The arrogance of Netanyahu and the ministers of his cabinet not only caused a failed peace effort by John Kerry and his shuttle diplomacy. Israeli ministers added insult upon insult on U.S. Secretary of State and soon he had to abandon his effort for a framework deal. Netanyahu continued his policy of defiance by building more houses and settlements on Palestinian land. His promise for a 2-state solution didn’t last through president Obama’s second term. Bibi Netanyahu’s true face was shown during the final days of the elections: a hard-nosed right-wing party leader lacking the words diplomacy and peace in his vocabulary.
○ Israeli Government Most Racist, Extremist in History | Tikun Olam |
○ McCain In Jerusalem to Voice Opposition Kerry’s Peace Push
○ Bibi Netanyahu: Book of Esther, Persecution, Deliverance and the Holocaust
My diary on Nov. 8th, 2013 only two months after calling off U.S. bombardments of Syria …
○ Obama On Path Towards Grand-Slam In Diplomacy
Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community
Does this also apply to Israel’s nuclear program?
I wish people writing about Ian had actually visited there in recent years. The comparison with Stalin is ignorant and insulting. Yes, there are repressive elements there, and there is a power struggle between more progressive and conservative elements. But most Iranians are neither religious fanatics nor xenophobes – in fact I would count them as more enlightened than the average GOP voter in the US.
Hopefully increased travel and trade links will clarify many misconceptions about Iranian society, and strengthen progressive forces not just in Iran, but in the USA as well. If anything the average Iranian already knows far more about the USA than vice versa. The knowledge deficit is mostly on the US side.
I am comparing the clerics to Stalin, not the Iranian people to the people of Tajikistan or St. Petersburg.