This comes from a guy who wants to start a war with something approaching a dozen countries:
What is happening to the Republican Party? I put that question to Lindsey Graham, the senator from South Carolina and basement-dwelling presidential candidate, who was getting ready to hold a campaign event in Hooksett, New Hampshire. “Well, the front-runner is crazy,” Graham said.
And if the stock market correction translates to a lot of job loss or a new recession, I don’t see things improving for the sanity-level of the Republican candidates. In fact, it could make the people just crazy enough to elect one of these lunatics.
I don’t know what is so hard for people on the left to wrap their heads around:
DEMOCRATS ARE THE UNDERDOG IN 2016.
The economy isn’t OK. The problems aren’t fixed.
Most Democratic bloggers are in complete denial.
Now, I would call that hitting the nail on its head—bang, it hurts. Mr. O. has been in denial since the beginning of his first term. A Reganite from head to toe, he was, he was, still is…? Helicopter Ben sits grinning on the sidelines and Yellen is probably consulting his hand-me-down crystal ball.
For the House, sure. I think Democrats have a leg up in getting the Senate back and it would require a perfect storm for them to get the White House. I’m not saying that can’t happen, particularly if the economy goes back in the tank. But in no way, shape or form would I give Republicans the inside track.
IEM has the Democrats with a narrow edge in odds (51.5 cents versus 50.7 cents for the Republicans). Factoring in the vig, that means (a very small market) of bettors have Clinton/whomever at 50.3% odds of winning the presidency.
The economy, despite recent market volatility, is actually okay. It could certainly be better, but I don’t see any strong reasons to disfavor incumbency there.
I hope you’re right. I was thinking maybe a serious market correction and economic downturn next year, after the fall election. Figured Dems are usually better at the economy and could keep the dikes plugged until then.
Besides, Thom Hartmann’s book is called The Crash of 2016 — not 2015 …
Since Dems have no power in the Congress, which is completely controlled by Repubs, it’s hard to see how Dems could keep any dikes plugged in the coming months.
Repubs are effectively in charge of the nation’s economic policy. They control the purse. It would be nice if the corporate media mentioned this fact from time to time…maybe in between ads for monster pick-ups.
The economy would be in better shape if one political party had not been committing ECONOMIC TREASON against this country, beginning January 20, 2009.
Only one party?
Really?
Oh.
You must mean the PermaGov Party.
My mistake.
Sorry.
AG
Actually, the economy is doing ok right now (yes yes, I know with all the caveats about inequality) in the sense that the U.S. isn’t on the verge of a recession and is growing more strongly than it did at any time in recent history other than the late 1990s.
That said, China and Europe are struggling, and there’s a fair chance that in a year that could drag us into a recession as their economies tank. (I’m betting Trump will conveniently forget he’s been running around saying that China’s leaders are way smarter than ours after they’re unable to control the bursting of a huge economic bubble…)
A bad economy hurts the Dems most of all. A shame they didn’t push for things that were more than bandaids when they had a chance.
I enjoy watching people claim that one party or the other is the underdog. The truth is ALL elections are undecided until the last vote is cast and counted for. To many run around like Chicken Little claiming the sky is falling. Most of the time these people are doing so for they have a political agenda of their own to support.
Before numerous people lose reason and panic try being patient for awhile.
I watched the market open this am. Well, before and after the opening bell rang, the market was nothing more than computers buying and selling stocks and commodities. The humans were standing/sitting around looking at screens with a major case of jaw drop. The coming government shut down might bring another GOP the recession.
The humans were standing/sitting around looking at screens with a major case of jaw drop.
Just a gentle reminder that are as obsolete as cobblers. Machines can do it better, faster, and cheaper.
As surplus labor, that will give them more time to check out more porn and quasi prostitution websites.
I watched the market open this am. Well, before and after the opening bell rang, the market was nothing more than computers buying and selling stocks and commodities. The humans were standing/sitting around looking at screens with a major case of jaw drop. The coming government shut down might bring another GOP the recession.
“And if the stock market correction translates to a lot of job loss or a new recession…”
Every president, senator, governor, and rep talks about how they help create jobs with this or that policy. The reality is they don’t do any such thing. The economics are far to complex for anyone to take credit for anything. There is no reason to think Obama would be causing these hypothetical job losses nor any reason to think he can prevent them.
But since he wants the credit, he will surely get the blame. And if that is all that’s required to put some demagogue in power, it will demonstrate something quite astonishing about the US voting public. And we will deserve our fate.
The Molly Ball article that Booman linked above (Can the Republican Party Survive Trump?) will prove to be part of yet another failed attempt to stop Trump’s rise. It says all the right things in all the right places about Trump, but it does not try to do the one thing that works on a bully.
A punch in the face.
All the reasoning in the world will neither stop Trump from running his game…a game at which he is proving to be very good, I might add…nor will it quell the admiration of those who are now supporting him.
Again, take the local schoolyard bully. He’s a hero to his hangers-on and boss of the school until someone publicly refuses to be bullied and then successfully puts him on his ass. Afterward? Abandoned by his supporters, just another big, dumb guy with a mean streak and some money.
No one has tried that yet. Not really. Bush III flying a little plane over one of his rallies with a sign that says “TRUMP 4 HIGHER TAXES, JEB 4 PREZ” just won’t cut it.
Weak!!!
Is there a RatPublican candidate who is willing to (and capable of) putting him down? Not as far as I can see. The next “debate” will tell the story, but I don’t think it’s happening.
Ball writes:
“Possibly apocryphal!!!??? Is she stupid or is that a phrase that was forced upon her by some lawyer guided editor? Please!!! Ain’t no “apocryphal” about it, and those rooms are in action as we speak. Bet on it. Only thing is, they have no leverage on a multi-billionaire who doesn’t give a shit what they say because he has their number with his big right hand punch.
Which big right hand punch?
This one.
BOOM!!!
Down they go for fear of being made powerless. Better a nutcase president who is at least nominally a Republican (and on the evidence of his career will play ball) and continued control of the House and Senate than a DemRat president and the possibility of losing that legislative control.
UH oh!!!
There’s money to be made!!!
Bet on that as well.
So who does that leave? Why the DemRats, of course. W/some likely under-the-table help from the RatPubs because both parties want the sweet PermaGov deal to continue uninterrupted for as long as they can swing it.
But the question remains…which DemRat.!!!???
Ay, there’s the rub.
We shall see. Soon enough.
Does Hillary survive her email travails? And if she does, is she a good enough fighter? A willing fighter?
Does Unca Bernie have the public energy to take on the bully?
Does Affable Joe have a sufficient mean streak to successfully deck him?
Hmmmm…
Stay tuned.
The soap opera continues.
Later…
AG
This is now a standalone post. Please comment there if you wish to do so. Trump. Still Rising. How…And By Whom…Can He Be Stopped?
Thank you and good afternoon.
AG
The economic conventional wisdom is still pitching austerity and starving infrastructure even as widening wars destroy ever more infrastructure globally and a drought is savaging a good part of the world’s arable land. China, having abandoned state control of the economy is approach a mess mitigated only by the part of the Chinese economy that is not yet privatized. Europe, having destroyed the Greek economy digs deeper.
My best analogy is 1928-1929.
The peril now is that the Democrats have nominally been in charge for the past 6 1/2 years and the Republican stance on every issue is “Dig deeper.”
The Democratic establishment does not recognize their peril, likely because they are paid well not to. Democratic voters have not engaged yet. The Biden-Warren gambit is beginning to concern some Democratic bloggers.
And the continuing death toll of unarmed black people is moving progressives in general to a more likely stance of just sitting the election out and waiting for the collapse.
Do you see an FDR in this situation? I strain to see a Herbert Hoover although Obama’s good intentions and neo-liberal economics are beginning to look like they fit in the Hoover mold. Meanwhile, the descendants of the Silver Shirts are coming out of the closet all across the US as “National Party” candidacies are gaining support in Europe and other countries. And the corruption of politics in a number of countries is beginning to bite more stable governments as that instability provides openings both for US CIA and jihadi meddling. Lebanon and Iraq are next.
And the Christian Churches in the US are hyping opposition to a nuclear arms agreement and want war with an opposing theocracy.
We are already in the midst of that danger. We are already seeing a reversal in the sanity of our friends and family members as the election and the media coverage heats up. The only thing that currently has things calm is the propensity of people to get immersed in their private lives.
The Republican establishment has let the monster Elephant Id out of its cave and set it loose in the media even allowing the Toddler’s blessing.
In the words of blogger long ago and far away, “We are fucked!!!”
I strain to see a Herbert Hoover although Obama’s good intentions and neo-liberal economics are beginning to look like they fit in the Hoover mold.
Beginning? Kevin Baker’s Barack Hoover Obama is almost better today than it was six years ago when it was published. (Remember this was written only six months into Obama’s first term.)
Now it’s more than half that are still holding out for grenade launchers and crystal meth.
That’s in regard to employing Summers and Geithner.
Baker may have given Obama more props than he deserves, but his point that being decent, intelligent, and astute isn’t enough in those historical moments when a political and economic transformation is required is valid. Would also quibble with Baker’s view of the vision of Hoover, FDR, and Obama. Vision is seeing far down the road and what can be.
Quite frankly I think the President was restrained by being the first AA President, especially in the first two years of his Presidency. Go back and look at him. He was very aware of the scrutiny he was under being first. Perhaps believing that the will of the majority of the country should mean something he wasn’t prepared for the unpatriotic backlash unleashed by the GOP. By the time he came to grips with how unhinged the “loyal opposition” had become, his window had closed.
Perhaps he should have read “I never had it made” and made a different plan.
That’s a generous interpretation. Not one I share. He chose to hold onto and/or bring back the Bush and Clinton guys, and thus revealed his orientation.
Why in the discussion of Obama’s past people never mentioned he was raised by the Vice-President of bank escapes me.
The FDR comparison is way off. FDR took power 3 years after the depression started, and the right had been discredited. FDR had bipartisan and even majority GOP support for large portions of the New Deal.
Obama took office with the start of the depression. In the revisionist history the left tells about him he blew the stimulus package. It is revisionist because NO ONE saw how bad it was. Stiglitz was for a $ 1 trillion surplus – which was way too small in retrospect. Summers kept Roemer’s analysis from the President. By the time they realized they needed another round of stimulus they were in a war over HCR and they couldn’t get another through.
In retrospect the response will be viewed as not enough, but way better than efforts of similar governments confronted with a crisis. Anyone want to compare US policy to that in Europe since the start of the crisis. Obama ran nearly double the deficit FDR ever did.
Obama will look very good 10 years from now.
Read Baker’s article. All you’re claiming is that Hoovernomics would have succeeded if only he’d given the banks a lot more money. In short run that does work, but if the core of the calamity is structural, another bust is around the corner.
To take into account that, like it or not, he needed at least two Republican votes to get any sort of stimulus. He couldn’t get that unless the stimulus package he put forth included a hefty percentage of tax incentives.
For some reason progressives like to forget that FDR had the Senate majority he needed to get his legislation passed, almost unchanged (well except for changes that ensured people of color were left out of the benefits) while Obama had 60 Senators for all of 4 months and that 60 included the likes of Baucus, Lincoln, and Lieberman
Sometimes we conflate policy with the politics of party affiliation. Masterful politicians work both tracks along with using the bully pulpit to sway public opinion.
Maybe a huge Democratic majority in Congress was gifted to FDR. Or maybe he was a factor in getting that majority. And maybe he didn’t need to employ a work around strategy for those conservative Democrats that balked at his liberal policies.
If LBJ had had to rely on Senate Democrats to pass Medicare, the policy would have gone down to defeat unless he could have arm twisted four of those non-voting Democrats to vote for it. Medicare was bold and progressive and still got almost half the votes of the GOP minority. Obama offered GOP lite policies and only managed to get a couple of NE GOP votes.
Let’s also not neglect to note that in 1934 the huge Congressional Democratic majority was increased which can be viewed as public approval for what FDR had been doing.
Sorry, Lindsey, but the Repub front runner is no more “crazy” than any of the rest of the clowns running, as has been argued here time after time—Trump says nothing more than positions other “conservatives” have said many times, from anchor babies to Texas Walls, to insulting Mexicans. Conservatives have heard it all before and love it. Also, too, Trump seems to want just as many Wars Against Islam as Lindsey G does.
What’s painfully obvious is that Trump has a certain charisma and celebrity, which the rest of the dwarfs cannot match in the slightest—this despite the fact that some are them are qualified to run, while our aspiring comb-over Il Duce is utterly unqualified for the position. One interesting change is that a very large number of Repub stooges, gorged on decades of hatred of gub’mint, no longer care about such niceties as qualifications for office. Why not start at the very top? That’s how nepotism works!
In fact, it’s now a “strength” of the blowhard Trump that he’s never been elected to anything—again, a similarity with charismatic rightwing strongmen Mussolini and Hitler.
As for the economy and its prospects, it’s certainly now well beyond the scope of our national government to influence, since the American cretins have given complete control over the most critical branch to a party of economic imbeciles–all of whom reject Keynesian economics, to the extent any of them ever understood it. Should slowdowns in the rest of the world take hold, and begin to drag down the American economy, it’s painfully obvious that no response from the braindead Repub House would be forthcoming. Plus, the Repub Congress will be quite willing to court worsening a national recession to aid its 2016 prez candidate.
Of course, most American appear unaware that the Repub party is in control of anything, our corporate media (and Dem leaders) don’t seem to mention it too much. In any event, Lindsey G will need to explain his definition of “crazy”, since Trump fits well within the parameters of Repub “thought”. Perhaps an examination into believing things that are irrational and without foundation in fact, data or history might be a way to begin, but then our whole “conservative” movement is crazy…
No matter what the economic reality, as fairly measured, the Republicans will continue selling “it is bad,” or “it could have been better.” The truth is not what they sell. Fear and resentment is what they sell. So, the market sell-off is just another nail they can hammer. They won’t call it “a correction”; it’ll be a failure of the Fed or of Obama or of the Clinton years, or whatever.