I don’t know about you, but it annoys me when I learn that a quote I treasure has been misattributed or told with the wrong phrasing. So, it’s hard for me to give up the idea that P.T. Barnum said that “there’s a sucker born every minute.” Regardless of who said it, however, it remains a very succinct way of pointing out that there are a tremendous number of really gullible people in the world. I’m more confident of the provenance of the phrase: “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” That came from H.L. Mencken, and it means the same thing.
It’s a feature of the human condition that most of us aren’t in any way conventionally intelligent or logical. And that means that the public is always at risk of falling for some scam or another. This is the premise of the entire snake oil industry and all political demagoguery.
On the other hand, most of us aren’t wealthy, either. Most of us don’t own businesses or any truly meaningful amount of stock. Most of us don’t have adequate savings for retirement. Most of us can’t afford to send our kids to college without some assistance or taking on debt. So, while it’s true that we can’t think our way out of a paper bag, we do have things in common that provide a common political interest. If college tuition is more affordable for you, it is also more affordable for me. We don’t have to be philosophers or physicists to understand that a system of taxation that progressively increases the wealth disparity of the nation is not in our interests.
There can be cases where our lack of brain power leads us to support things that seem to be in our collective interests but are in fact counterproductive. Conservatives argue that this is the case in a number of areas, including raising the minimum wage (leads to fewer jobs), opposing free trade (keeps consumer costs low and ultimately grows the economy leading to better quality jobs and more wealth), and subsidized access to health care (leads to rationing, lower quality health care, and government interference in doctor/patient relationships).
And, it’s true, there are tradeoffs to everything and there are many times in life when something seems like a good deal but turns out to be lousy in the long run.
We do have ways of dealing politically with the shortcomings of the mental capacity of the average human being.
In a representative democracy, we are ideally hiring someone to represent us who we trust to weigh the pros and cons of different policies and choose ones that seem best designed to do more good than harm. We elect them and then we go about our lives, our jobs, our family obligations. It’s supposed to be their job to do the due diligence of figuring out what works and what doesn’t.
Of course, it’s more complicated than that because we are potential sources of valuable information about what works and what doesn’t. We might be able to tell a politician firsthand how some regulation isn’t working as intended because we have to interact with that regulation as part of the work we do for a living. We might know how some policing policy is backfiring because we live in the community that is being adversely affected by that policy. Or, we might even be part of what is derisively called an “interest group” and have information about how our group is being negatively or positively impacted by policies or lack of policies. So, part of our job goes beyond simply choosing someone to represent us. We need to be ready to educate or “lobby” our representative. All the more so because there are other groups out there that have gotten organized to try to persuade our representatives to do things that are counter to our interests.
Still, on the theoretical/ideal level, we’re not supposed to be the deciders. We’re supposed to delegate that responsibility. And if we don’t like how the job is getting done, our right is to pick someone new to represent us.
Now, Mark Kleiman wants to know how Donald Trump gets away with saying stuff that any “thinking” person finds outrageous, and he finds the answer in the fact that, for most people, there is no aversion to talking nonsense. This is true. And it presents a problem for the idea that the best form of government is one in which we ask the people their opinion and accept the majority opinion as the most valuable. The depressing level of intelligence of the median voter is why brilliant minds like H.L. Mencken and Friedrich Nietzsche had a low opinion of democratic representative government. It’s also why conservatives frequently will come right out and say that they don’t want everyone voting. Or, as Brown University Professor Jason Brennan puts it:
“If most voters decide, ‘We don’t know anything, we’re just going to kind of choose whatever we find emotionally appealing,’ then they’re imposing that upon other people,” said Brennan, a professor of political philosophy at Brown University. “And not only are they imposing it upon other people, they’re imposing it literally at gunpoint.”
The idea here is that what we really need is an informed electorate, one that knows that you can’t balance the budget by eliminating earmarks and foreign aid, for example, and hopefully one that can understand that none of those things would be desirable anyway. This kind of electorate wouldn’t fall for Donald Trump’s so-called “plan” to build a 3,000 mile wall on our border with Mexico.
There’s something to this, certainly. But people who truly understand issues are alway a minority and if the majority comes to agree with them, even for a short time, it’s usually no more than a happy coincidence. So, the question becomes, why should we value the opinion of a majority? Why would we want more people to vote irrespective of their familiarity with the issues and their capacity to logically assess pros and cons?
And the answer is really twofold.
First, we like participatory representative government foremost because it’s better than all the alternatives. And one reason it is superior is that it creates the “consent of the governed.” If the people will not abide by the rules laid down by our authorities, we can’t have any kind of civil order, and without civil order we can’t have nice things like civilization. The most important part of gaining that consent is that we allow our leaders to be held accountable. And we convince the people that if a majority of them reject a politician then that’s a valid decision that should be respected rather than an affront that should lead to civil war or domestic terrorism.
Second, we already have a bunch of anti-democratic features built into our system that mitigate against mob rule or our leaders making really bad impulsive decisions. Our Senate is one of these. It was not intended to have popularly elected officials for precisely this reason. Having legislatures elect them and giving them six-year terms was supposed to keep them from being overly responsive to the popular will. They’re supposed to ignore us.
The Electoral College is another means by which our betters are supposed to maintain some control over our political fate. And, like everything else, there are pros and cons to this. Does anyone really think it would be an awful thing if a bunch of state leaders decided to simply reject Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s nominee because that’s a fucking crazy idea hatched by a public that is currently out of its damn mind?
I don’t.
I know that this is a giant heresy, but the will of the public can be destructive. I don’t have a problem with having a mechanism in place to deal with this part of the human condition even if I can almost never imagine it being a good idea to use it. Likewise, the Senate frustrates me to no end because it thwarts progress. But it also thwarts right-wing insanity, and I’m more concerned about the latter than the former.
This puts me the position of an elitist, certainly, because I ultimately see democracy as a means to an end rather than something sacrosanct. Our political leadership will always be formed of an elite. I’d like to see that elite made up of people of the broadest possible set of backgrounds and I want an incredibly low barrier of entry for joining this elite. I want this elite to be civic-minded and responsive to the people and mindful foremost of the people who are in need. But I also want them to be insulated enough to be able to tell us to go pound sand when we ask for something that is manifestly not good for us.
When it comes to demagogues, Kleiman has a good formulation:
The deepest mistake is to regard someone who acts as if he doesn’t give a damn whether anything he says is true, or consistent with what he said yesterday, as stupid. That’s the mistake many liberals made (and some still make) about George W.
It’s true that this is a mistake, but I’m not sure that it matters all that much. What’s important is not so much that there are politicians who have no intellectual conscience as that the majority of the people are vulnerable to being taken in by them. This isn’t supposed to be possible in a system wherein the most valid and binding opinion is the opinion of the majority of voters, but it is not only possible but a constant and unchanging condition that can be only modestly improved.
What we’re doing, in part, is making a tradeoff. The majority of the people may be worthless for determining whether the negotiated deal with Iran is a good deal or a poor risk, but they have a collective wisdom in more general matters that is a better guide than the whims of a few unaccountable and corruptible individuals.
Now, progressives will argue that things can be made better if we just do a better job of educating the public. We need to teach them how to think. I agree with this because the more informed people are, the better. But, as a matter of principle, the value of the majority opinion (and its binding power in our system) does not and never has rested on it being good reasoning. In principle, majority-opinion is the best way to resolve disputes and prevent them from becoming violent. In principle, accountability is the best way to keep our representative leaders from becoming overly corrupt or of serving interests other than our own.
Finally, this desire to have a more informed electorate has been misappropriated to apply tests that have the purpose not of getting a smarter result but of preventing whole classes of people from voting at all. This is what the Jim Crow election laws were all about, for example. In the end, quite aside from the unfairness of the Jim Crow election system, it failed to maintain the consent of the governed or to keep civil order. Excluding people from the political system for any reason is a violation of their rights as citizens and so this cannot be a solution to improving the median decision-making capability of the electorate. Even if it succeeded in the latter, it would fail in the former. In any case, it could never work in a country in which people are not set on an equal footing and you have a history of systemic race-based discrimination, especially in education. After all, one of the legitimate demands of the black community since the beginning of the Civil Rights Era was for an improvement in access to quality education. To exclude many of them from the process because they don’t meet your educational standard is nothing more than the perpetuation of an injustice, using past injustices to rationalize future injustices.
So, we kind of sell this ideal that the best answer to a political question can be found by ascertaining the opinion of the majority of the people, and that the more people who participate, the better and more valid and more binding the answer will be. This is basically bullcrap.
What’s true, though, is that this is a better ideal than any known alternative, and we should fight for it every day.
After years of daily lurking at this superb political blog I created an account so I could praise this post. Thanks for the thoughtful and lucid explanation.
Okay, back to lurking.
How intelligent are our rational, informed elites if they can’t even manipulate gullible halfwits like us? In a system in which the majority of the people are vulnerable to appeals to emotion, surely the best and brightest elite can fashion the most appealing appeals.
It strikes me that you’re saying you want an elite which is civic-minded and responsive and mindful–but too precious to sell snake oil to the great unwashed.
I’ve said before I wouldn’t be so opposed to elites if they could run the thing better. I think that’s directly attributable to economic disparity. Elites now live in such a different world than most people that they no longer are able to relate and so their thought process becomes very different.
This is what I mean when I say “the very rich are not even remotely human.”
Yiu write:
There are no truly rational, informed “elites” in any position of power here, Steggies. Not in the sense that you are implying… “rational, informed elites” who agree with you and/or the so-called progressive mindset. They have been either totally marginalized by the media and/or bought out…controlled in safely isolated academic concentration camps…by massive corporate money.
There are, however extremely intelligent “elites” who are doing a truly great job of manipulating people. The majority of Americans must be halfwits if they do not see the truth of the PermaGov scam. The film Idiocracy was a satirical look at this condition, and it was buried by its corporate owners…the same foxy people who run Fox News, really…once they realized how dangerous it was to the continuing PermaGov fix.
“Cult followings” they can handle. Waking up the vast field of sleeping sheeple? Not if they have anything to say about it.
Bet on it.
AG
Any appeal to false consciousness is another, covert way of saying “dumber than I am”.
It’s hard to march into the future patting yourself on the back. It throws off the rhythm, and disturbs the cadence.
Maybe so, but I think despite its problems parliamentary systems manage these issues better than what we have. Not full proof of course. On a more philosophical level, development of AI would pose a fascinating problem. Eventually it would improve to a point where it would be able to run things with better fairness, efficiency and responsiveness than any human system. You have only the legitimacy option arguing for democracy.
Also this is what I mean when I say Fukayama was right. It is the end of history in that representative liberal/social democracy is the best possible solution for human governance until there is some sort of revolutionary paradigm shift like transhumans, true AI etc. Until we fundamentally change the human condition/nature all that we can do is apply tweaks.
Then again I also believe if you were to give me absolute power paradise on earth would soon follow! (Cue evil villain laughter).
“Eventually it would improve to a point where it would be able to run things with better fairness, efficiency and responsiveness than any human system.”
I don’t think so. Let me guess: you are an engineer?
Not even a little bit of an egineer. Bachelor of Arts degree. JD.
I don’t like that AIs will eventually be superior, but I think that is an unmistakable conclusion.
Then you’e drinking too much of the koolaid.
It would be a security nightmare, and the only important fuckups would be the big ones. Meanwhile, the users would waste a lot of their lives trying to adapt themselves to it, and to find an actual human to help you out of the maze when you need it would be nearly impossible. The tool would be using us instead of vice versa.
I love the Internet, and personally benefit from it every day. But if my perspective were not located above and beyond it, I do not think it would be a benefit at all.
Look, they already use game theory in place of common sense, not to say wisdom, and the results are not reassuring.
“development of AI would pose a fascinating problem. Eventually it would improve to a point where it would be able to run things with better fairness, efficiency and responsiveness… “
Have the Termintator movies taught you nothing???
I agree with the previous 2 instances of snark. Any AI overlord would only optimize what it has been designed to optimize, with only the inputs it’s been given. Who are these programmers and data gatherers who would design our AI overlord to be so fair and efficient and responsive? I’d maybe trust James Madison, but I don’t believe he know how to code, and he’s dead.
Also, too, I am an engineer.
AI would get inputs the way we do, from experience. The initial programming would just be a starting point.
Also wasn’t Madison bipolar or something? Not use I’d trust him.
“With Folded Hands…” by Jack Williamson.
Careful what you wish for. You may get it.
I don’t know about you, but it annoys me when I learn that a quote I treasure has been misattributed or told with the wrong phrasing.
I’ve found this to be true with the large majority of familiar quotes. So I don’t worry about it anymore.
“Wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross…”
— Not Sinclair Lewis, or anyone that anyone knows, for that matter.
Not those exact words, but similar …
http://technoccult.net/archives/2010/03/03/who-really-said-when-fascism-comes-to-america-it-will-com
e-wrapped-in-the-flag-and-waving-a-cross/
Philosopher kings assisted by some kind of legislature or plebiscite all the way.
The reason why democracy is becoming more and more important as an ideal is because it is the only counterweight most people have to the overweening power of economic elites. Our economies are, after all governed on the principle of one $ one vote, not one person one vote. Also, most people spend a lot of their lives at work, and most workplaces are anything but democratic. Its what the boss says, goes, almost right or wrong.
The problem created by globalization is that most large corporates are now more powerful than most states,m and are able to play one government off against another by threatening to take their capital elsewhere. The balance of power between corporates and governments has shift, dramatically in favour of corporates.
Finally, the solution to the ignorance of the majority is not more undemocratic institutions, but more education – precisely why the right want to gut public education for teaching anathema subjects like science…
This is similar to a point made, I believe, by Kevin Drum in a blog post a few months back, that democracy is the best system we know of to keep rich assholes from running amok. Of course, we have lots of rich assholes running amok, thanks to the horribly undemocratic Citizens United decision, but absent whatever democracy we have left, it could be much worse.
I prefer lame policies chosen by the masses to lame policies chosen by technocrats and plutocrats. Rather that we all flail in the water together than we get run over by their yachts.
The overweening power of economic elites was never more overweening than before representative democracy ever became widespread.
Try being a tenant farmer, or crofter, as 90% of the population was up until nearly living memory.
Our government is as representative as people wish it to be. No one here is happy with what it represents, but you can’t ascribe it all to ignorance, or false consciousness.
It’s due to the fact that people in the aggregate, however lovely they may be taken one by one, are basically shits.
~ Olestra ~
but the will of the public can be destructive
I think that pretty much nails the dynamics of the Republican party today- the rubes and the billioniares that think they control them pretty much want to blow the whole place up. They really aren’t interested in governing, just destroying whatever democratic government we have left. And, apparently, many of the oligarchs are just fine with the bring this sucker down on their heads strategy. Why? I don’t know. Is paying 10% of your profit as taxes or having government make you spend a few bucks so your mine doesn’t collapse or your plant doesn’t blow up or so that your neighbors can actually drink the water they pump really that onerous? And if everything collapses, it’s a good bet that whoever thinks they are running the clown show won’t be the one billionaire dictator that wins the survivor game. More likely, they end up in prison or dead sooner or later after the strongman takes over (see: Russia).
Americans really are angry, and they have good reason to be. I see only two outcomes long term- Politicians can demagogue that anger and eventually watch the whole place blow up, or they can stop trying to blow smoke up our asses and start implementing some real reform that starts raising living standards for the rest of America. Sadly, I see only a few politicians these days (and certainly they aren’t running for the Republican nomination) who want to go down the sensible path.
Wow — I usually agree with BooMan 100% on nearly everything, but I just think this post is all wrong, fundamentally.
This is a classic “blame the victim” argument. These “stupid” ideas come from somewhere — they’re strategically instilled by people like Limbaugh, Hannity and Kristol.
It’s a strategy that goes back to Goldwater (at least): advance your own agenda by any means necessary, including disinformation campaigns. Exploit Christianity to advance the cause of Mideast intervention (against “heathens”). Exploit envy/mistrust of better-educated people to create “anti-elite” sentiment. Exploit lack of information about science to portray global warming as a “liberal hoax.” Throughout, manipulate people’s reasonable and intelligent dissatisfaction and belief to get them on your side.
It’s easy to just give up and say “these people are stupid.” But it’s the wrong answer. Americans are pretty shrewd, and like to think for themselves and find the right answer, when they’re not being misled and conned.
The giving up part is the problem.
The rest, not so much.
What happens if The People persist in having ideas, hopes and dreams that aren’t aligned correctly with the truth as we see it?
An appeal to false consciousness is simply a covert way of saying “I’m smarter than you”.
Sound wisdom, Winston.
This:
“I know that this is a giant heresy, but the will of the public can be destructive”
I don’t know why it would be heresy since this idea is in fact the foundation upon which the Constitution is built.
Problem is, there is no evidence any elite is any better. Who, after all, will guard the guardians?
No one. You have the system engineered for competing classes of guardians to guard each other — cf. Federalist 10.
I believe that the relevant quote here is Churchill.
“It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”
It’s unreasonable to expect democracy to be elegant or efficient. It is reasonable to hope that democracy will avoid some of the horrific missteps made by people who had such compelling visions of how countries should be run that they didn’t feel the need to negotiate or compromise or care about the wellbeing of others.
There are, however, no guarantees.
My favorite:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
2cd H. L. Mencken:
“When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost…
All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.
The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
We got there, and survived. For eight years.
I live in hope.
Very Hamiltonian of you. Meh, I always say that Hamilton and I are kindred spirits in many ways. He was no leftist, but he existed in a time where the general public was not educated and was blinded by his own meritorious rise. A bastard child from the Caribbean to Washington’s most trusted adviser and stabilizer of the Republic? Who wouldn’t be blinded by, “if I can make it here, why can’t anyone else?”
Still, as time has gone on, though I am a “technocrat” at heart (in the sense that technocrats truly do what’s right…like public health care should be a given, for example)…that’s just anti-politics in a political world, and it serves no one but the powerful. The more democracy, imo, the better.
This problem will bring democracy to its knees. Voters deal with not only different sets of opinions but different sets of facts.
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” – Daniel Moynihan
You’re trying to survive and things are complicated a person should not have to try and figure out who is lying before making a decision on an issue.
Tell Professor Brennan for me I might try to respect his opinion if he can learn to use the word “literally” correctly.
That’s exactly right, I think. Education is extremely important but it can’t be a precondition for democracy (in most modern dictatorships the rulers keep telling you they believe in democracy but not until you’re ready for it).
It’s a mistake to try to choose a form of government like a business decision, based on looking for the one that gets the best results, even in Churchill’s formulation. It really needs to be based on the moral issue, as laid out in the Declaration of Independence, that we’re all in this together and everybody has to have a voice, including stupid people.
But it’s also the case that where democracy does bad things will tend to be where it’s not inclusive. Starting, in the American case, with leaving all the women and blacks and Indians and people who didn’t own property out of the process. Not that majority rule guarantees a good answer, but that wider participation guarantees a wider choice of answers from which a better answer might come.
Booman writes:
and:
and:
Way to go, Booman!!!
At least you don’t make that mistake!!!
Let me slightly rephrase your first quote.
How about:
UH oh!!!
Really, Booman!!!
Ol’ F. Scott woulda loved this article!!!
What’re they feeding you at that Washington Monthly joint?
Soma?
AG