It is more interesting than the top line report that Clinton and Sanders are in a tie.
Billmon does a great riff on this:
So Hillary heads & associated pundits are already talking about Southern “firewalls” & $ power — in September BEFORE primaries even start.
This doesn’t seem like a good sign for the Clinton Restoration.
Southern Strategy:
[Clinton logo with the arrow pointing south]Hillary, 2008: “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.”
“hard working Americans, white Americans.”
Hillary 2008: “White voters will save me!” http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/clinton-touts-white-support/?_r=0 …
Hillary aides 2016: “Black voters will save her!” http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-relying-on-southern-primaries-to-fend-
off-rivals.html
If anyone on Team Clinton suggests a response to her sagging poll numbers is to reprise the 2004 takedown ad against that other man from Vermont:
“Howard Dean should take his tax-hiking, government-expanding, latte-drinking, sushi-eating, Volvo-driving, New York Times-reading, body-piercing, Hollywood-loving, left-wing freak show back to Vermont, where it belongs
They might need a rethink.
Clinton’s strongest lead in Iowa is among those age 65+. Clinton 53% and Sanders 20%
Among 18-34 year olds it’s Clinton 19% and Sanders 66%.
Clinton’s second strongest demo lead is with the annual household income >$100K. Clinton 50% to Sanders 36%.
At the opposite end of the income ladder <$30K it’s Clinton 32% to Sanders 51%.
Close behind Clinton’s lead among the wealthier is her lead among women: 49% to Sanders at 35%.
Men: Clinton 28% and Sanders 49%.
College Deg: Clinton 43% and Sanders 37%.
No Deg: Clinton 37% and Sanders 44%.
Interesting is that Clinton’s favorables are similar to that for Sanders. Her unfavorables are higher than Sanders,’ but that may only reflect that she’s better known as 15% of those polled don’t know enough about Sanders to have an opinion one way or the other. And Clinton scores an impressive 92% on possessing “strong leadership qualities.” Thus, I’m tentatively going to say that men favoring Sanders’ by a larger margin isn’t exclusively an issue of sexism.
If this poll is even close to being a representative sample, it’s stunning that Sanders’ message is being heard this well, this early by Democrats most negatively impacted by neoliberal economic policies. And the least likely to have been subjected to heavy anti-communism and by extension anti-socialism propaganda as they grew up.* More men seem to be hearing an economic message from Sanders that doesn’t exclude their plight or anxieties. Many of those same men possibly thought they were hearing the same from Obama in 2008, but with Sanders it’s more explicit. If not an anomoly, this could be a game changer.
For your reading pleasure, the latest Quinnipiac Iowa Poll
*Three reasons for it being far less prevalent. The demise of the USSR. Communist China makes a high percentage of the goods we buy. The Democratic Party ceased to advocate for socialistic economic policies in the 1980s. IOW, capitalism won.
Update
FWIW — NYTimes report on new Reuters/Ipsos poll. (At this time, the poll report seems not to have been published.)
…
Clinton leads Sanders nationally among Democrats by eight percentage points, 39 percent to 31 percent, her smallest cushion since the nominating battle began for the November 2016 election. She led Sanders by 20 percentage points in the online poll a week ago.
…
