I think it’s okay to come right and say that Donald Trump is simply not supposed to be doing so well. And if that upsets Mark Halperin, well, I’m kind of with Ed on this one.
Again, if it weren’t for the real-life consequences, it would be tempting to cheer Trump on, if only for the comedic value of what he does to people like Halperin and his sources.
I’m pretty sure that Trump will not win the nomination and then lose the general election narrowly. Either he’ll dominate the whole process from beginning to end, defying every expert who thinks America is better than this, or he’ll get crushed by absolutely epic proportions and essentially end the modern conservative movement as a coherent ideology with a chokehold on the Grand Old Party.
Obviously, with the stakes so high, I’m a little tentative about rooting Donald on. But I’m also sick of gridlock and might just be ready for a really high stakes roll to see if we can break out of this jam.
In other words, I’m almost ready to make the same crazy wager that Republican voters are making when they say “Screw the party establishment, we’re voting for the outsider.”
You are particularly interesting today! I’ve got nothing to whinge about. Just wanted to say. Both your posts so far: hmmm.
Well, this might make things interesting.
Conservative Super PAC Declares War on Donald Trump – ABC News
Guess Trump calling Club for Growth a loser got under their skin. He’s probably delighted that they’re spending a bunch of cash this early in IA. Trump’s response should be interesting.
Trump’s outrageous racism is horrifying. But the cravings of the other Republicans to destroy Medicare, SS, and voting rights, inter alia, is even more horrifying. So I’m only concerned about Trump insofar as he’d be more likely to win. If I had to have one of the Republicans as President I think I’d prefer him.
I wouldn’t. Trump’s positions on the economy and welfare state may be unorthodox, but as long as the establishment is in charge of Congress (and they have a much tighter-grip on them than they would on him) he doesn’t have a prayer of bucking GOP orthodoxy.
Trump’s candidacy will, however, usher in a new age of racism. Even if it turns out that he’s completely insincere on the issue, he’ll have already opened the door to normalizing ethnic cleansing. And make no mistake, that’s what he’s advocating for: deporting over 10 million people in 18 months would require Milosevic-style tactics.
And if GOP members of Congress go along with Trump’s deportation scheme, none of them would ever see another dime from corporations other than Trump, Inc., and Trump’s just one of many in the corporate billionaire class and at the lower end of it.
Which one would you choose?
If space aliens were threatening to blow up an extraterrestrial civilization unless I was forced to pick a GOP candidate Charles-in-Charge style, I’d vote for Carly Fiorina. If only because she seems the most hapless (though Walker comes pretty damn close) of the clown party and the Democratic Party might be able to run around her like they did with Maine’s TP governor.
With Trump, the mask slips from the monster that is the modern GOP. That’s dangerous only if we as a nation have truly lost our minds, hearts and souls.
I’m not quite ready to place a wager on that one.
Sadly, neither am I.
I’m trying to figure out how to read this sentence: “I’m pretty sure that Trump will not win the nomination and then lose the general election narrowly.”
Is it a typo and you think he’ll win the GOP nomination and then lose the general narrowly?
Oh, I see. You’re saying he’ll either become president (yikes) or get blown out in a landslide. But what do you think his chances are of winning the GOP nomination?
No. He’ll win the nomination and get his stinky ass blown out of the water.
Look, all the people who LIKE Trump already support him … about 35% of the R base. He isn’t going to energize the marginal republicans. Most of them think of him as a clown. He isn’t going to entice marginal democrats to vote for him. They also think he’s a clown. His support can mostly be described: % of voters who aren’t registered democratic, aren’t of color, aren’t Fundie Xtian (they are with Carson and they don’t like him either) and aren’t business oriented.
Its not enough.
Which is why I say that the only Democrat who can possibly lose this cycle is Hillary. Her negatives are so high (fair or not) that while undecided folk might look at Trump with disgust, they’ll take one look at Hillary and vote for Trump anyway.
or stay home imo.
Make up your mind, Errol.
Will they stay home from Hillary or Bernie? You’ve moaned on both sides now.
Hillary. I didn’t mean to say stay home from voting for Bernie – though, taking Fladem’s warnings about issues on which GOP will go after Bernie if he gets the nomination, I’m hoping Biden steps in.
I’m not much of a gambler. Heck, I won’t even bet on things Arthur Gilroy says are a sure thing. So I wouldn’t take the crazy wager. The status quo today, under gridlock, is still better than the last time Republicans had all the levers of power, and I don’t see Trump as any kind of an improvement over Dubya.
Isn’t it interesting that McConnell’s long-term strategy is working, though?
his strategy is working? how? [guess I haven’t been following it]
The strategy of grinding things to a halt so people give up and become nihilists. I’m not trying to diminish the accomplishments we’ve made, just saying that all the obstruction has been demoralizing, as intended.
I’m not sure what Booman’s exact wager would be. Nothing wrong with voting for an outsider, but demoralization could lead to President Trump. Not McConnell’s ideal victory, but still a victory.
I’m totally willing to make the wager.
Trump as the GOP nominee kills it as a national party.
Know-nothings helped kill the Whig party, and so can Trump.
Boo, the only problem with the screw it approach is that we might end up with exactly what we have been against our entire adult lives. I can think of a couple of other comedic political figures who showed up elsewhere slightly before my time. That didn’t work out so well.
When a political vacuum is created the implosion can be worse than anticipated. Look at the Mid East and eastern Europe now for example.
By the way I didn’t understand what you meant by NOT getting nominated and then narrowly losing the election. Would he break his “pledge” and run as an independent??
Not that long ago, Kinky Friedman would have been an awesome governor of Texas… or not.
For our entertainers, things are different… or not.
A clearer constructions of that sentence would say, “I’m pretty sure that, if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he will either dominate the general or be dominated in the general, but it won’t be a close election.”
Boo ….
Put your head between your knees and breathe deeply.
Then go look up Romney’s results. The people flocking to Trump are Romney’s … minus the big business.
The sky is not falling. The Second Coming is not at hand. And Trump is STILL a clown. Along with every other R running.
I don’t read Halperin as at all upset, but rather appreciative of Trump’s game. IIRC Halperin was ahead of a lot of other pundits in predicting Trump’s staying power, and Trump responded with high praise for Halperin and Heilemann. And access.
I see Halperin hyperventilating with a brown paper bag over his face. Wish he’d keep it there.
Trump is Sheldon Adelson without a front man. He can outmanuever the rest of the pack just because when it comes to money and his campaign, he is the source of the nut. He doesn’t have to waste time go begging or checking signals. That gives the freedom to be the authentic Donald instead of the constrained flunky for someone else. Like most “successful” billionaires, he’s a cheapskate in operations and a spendthrift in personal display. The cheapskate side serves him well in running a campaign; he like Sanders can bleed the other candidates with unorthodox strategy.
And he’s successfully stolen other candidates’ followings for the moment.
He’s the sort of guy that eventually cracks up. Whether that happens during the primaries, during the general election campaign, or in office, it will happen. I think that intuition is the source of BooMan’s statement. I don’t know where the pessimism about Democratic chances against Trump come for except for the intuitive sense that highly promoted demagogy (and the media really loves their creation) will win in the current media-driven marketing-oriented political environment that drives policy completely out of the arena. That it’s a rigged game.
The optimum scenario for Democrats would be for a Trump crack-up to occur in the general election campaign and have consequences all down the ticket.
I am not at all sure that Trump will “crack up” at all. Only if some forces…Dems, PermaGov, Spooks, corporate-owned media, whatever…decide to take him down by whatever means necessary will he “crack up.”
Until then?
If then?
Megalomania in action.
Watch.
People fall for that.
Lots of them.
Bet on it.
Watch.
AG
Hitler cracked. I took Soviet tanks entering Berlin for it to happen and Allied tanks approaching from the west, but he cracked.
I understand your concern. His realization that he is not God must come sooner rather than later.
It’ll come when it comes, Tarheel. Wishing won’t make it so, only action, and action on that level is out of our hands.
Out of human hands, in my view.
Bet on it.
Later…
AG
Tarheel, its a sad state of affairs when you and I are the voices calm, sanity and rationalism … at least when I am. People, IT TAKES MORE THAN ANGRY WHITE MEN TO ELECT A PRESIDENT!!!!!!!!!
The general election polls right now are hopes, wishes and unicorn farts. I don’t believe a word of the “potential matchups” in the general election. We’re too damn far out.
I’m willing to put some credence in the matchups for the primary season, simply because you are dealing with a declared base R or D. I don’t know if Trump can pull it off, but the man literally can’t go two days without saying some kind of bullshit.
McCain is not hero, he’s a zero.
Rubio is a loser.
Mexicans are all rapists.
I understand the blacks.
All you need to know about me is that I’m rich and have a hot piece of ass for a wife.
This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop. Our planet is freezing …
I am being proven right about massive vaccinations — the doctors lied
Will someone tell me where the votes to elect Trump in a general election will come from? women? Hispanics? Black? Millenials?
And I don’t buy the “but they’ll all stay home” bullshit.
“Tarheel, its a sad state of affairs when you and I are the voices calm, sanity and rationalism … at least when I am.”
Sounds reasonable so far.
“I am being proven right about massive vaccinations — the doctors lied”
Hmmm.
But it does take some angry white men in some states. It’s a matter of what they are angry about.
Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding. Ding. The duck just came down. You bet your life it did.
Well, I’m betting that Trump hasn’t sunk much of his own scratch into his campaign- He’s cruising on free publicity. I think that is really what Trump brings to this race- the ability to self-generate publicity without having to spend a nickle just by tossing out an insult or two. Say what you want about Trump, but he certainly knows what will get air time on the local news (or MSNBC…)
I think that the best way for Republicans to deal with Trump is to put him in time out. No arguing, no insults. Just ignore him. We will talk when you have a serious policy proposal. They really need to see if Trump will ante up his own fortune to get air time and play the game (I’d bet no). But to do that, they would need the cooperation of the press, and right now all the corporate media wants to do is take that Trump reality show to the bank. Just like other reality shows, it’s cheap to produce, it thrives on fake drama, insults, and backstabbing, and makes for some easy ratings. Oh, and also it doesn’t help the fact that most of the rest of the GOP candidates are clowns themselves who couldn’t make a serious policy proposal if their careers depended on it.
He’s the sort of guy that eventually cracks up.
We call those that underestimate their opponents, losers. Waiting for Trump to crack up isn’t a campaign strategy but wishful thinking. Now we know that plenty of candidates do crack up during the course of their campaigns. We also know when that happens the most. It’s when the candidate is losing and in panic mode pushed beyond his/her energy level and/or comfort zones. Tied to that point in a campaign is also a shortage of campaign funds.
When you have multiple sets of enemies, that point is likely to come even if you are Donald Trump. If it doesn’t, and the Trump-optimists are correct about his ability to win a general election, I can think of a bunch of nations that will cause the crack up. And that will put the uniformed military in a huge bind. Isn’t that the dynamic at play here?
The Trump optimists have yet to figure out that they’re being played. That they’re the patsies. The rest of us know they’re being played, but we don’t yet know who is actually doing the playing and why. It could be that Trump is really out there on his own and has delusions of being POTUS. If so, TBTP will do their own calculations as to when he’s taken down. Could be anytime between now and just before the general election day, but he will not become POTUS. Trump could be TPTB patsy — either to make one of the other candidates appear less crazy and more acceptable for the nomination. Or Trump could be the establishment guy and all of us are the patsies.
The good that Trump does.
Do conservative consider this a GOP victory?
I’m presuming you mean that conservatives could view the takeover of MSNBC by Donald Trump on every program and carried live everytime he speaks somehwere as a victory for their side? If I were one, I would?
When Rachel came on at 9 and started off with “we’re waiting on Trump to speak live on the deck of the USS Iowa”, I switched. This has got to be a deliberate decision by the suits at MSNBC and CNN, for pity’s sake. Maybe their goal is to drive any liberal viewers away but replace them with gobs of the money viewers, i.e. the bat…. crazy far right? Cause they have put me out to pasture. The only nighttime host who tries to do something other than Trump and the never ending Presidential election is Chris Hayes. Don’t know what kind of sway he has with the suits, but he’s the only one I can stand watching right now.
But as a long term strategy this seems to be a losing deal. Incessant Trump coverage costs Trump no money, discourages the other candidates from buying any media coverage at all and when and if he implodes, what are they gonna do? All of a sudden they’re gonna turn into a civic minded policy focused news outlet? Don’t think so. IMO, they are hastening their own demise, i.e. cable news.
I flipped back to Rachel’s show past the midpoint and she brought on Steve Schmidt, the McCain campaign guy who she touts as being somewhat sane, to explain what’s going on with Trump. After commenting that Trump’s campaign is a grand exercise in self-promotion, Schmidt with an underlying angry gravitas, says that Trump appeals to the Republican voter because he taps in to and continues to endorse their deeply held beliefs that Obama has accomplished the tearing down the country, making it NOT great and Trump says he will return America to greatness. Along those lines.
But what I wish she had the chutzpah to ask Schmdt is exactly how/why do Republican voters believe that about Obama. What has he done, specifically, that makes them think the country has been made ungreat?
I don’t believe that their view is grounded in reality at all and I believe that it is simply a longstanding cover for their hatred of our President based primarily on his skin color. If I am wrong, I wish someone would tell me why I am. Obama has been a very very good President by any objective measure. He may even turn out to be measured a great one, given the 8 years of opposition that he has faced, some of it from his own mealy-mouthed party.
Well yes, the “Make America White Again” motif has been pretty obvious from the beginning.
I think that your intuition about the suits a Comcast is correct.
The Republicans, good at getting high on their own supply, sought to delegitimize Obama because in January 2009, they were in deep doo doo left by George W. Bush. Only a scorched earth strategy could save them, they thought — apparently correctly. Now that their base believes their lies better than Gospel, Trump just pushes those buttons. And a big resentment is the black man in the White House, the people’s house that Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson sanctified.
And Trump’s edge is the charge that the establishment Republicans have not delivered on their value voters and racist hopes and dream and will string them along forever. That guns, God, and gays are just election gimmicks that the GOP never intends to legislate for fear of lacking issues on which to run. There is some cockeyed truth there, enough to give Trump 30% of Republicans somewhere or another 14 months out from an election.