I could laugh for several days on end at Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the ridiculous press appearance he made to announce that he is suspending his campaign. But I don’t really care about Walker anymore than I care about the asshole governors of Florida or Maine, just to pick two extreme examples.
What was kind of threatening about Walker was that he seemed to have some potential to use the fact that he doesn’t come from a dysfunctional state (like Maine or Florida), but from a bona fide bluish swing state, and the fact that he’s a two-term governor with actual executive experience, to argue persuasively that he was some kind of moderate bridge-building guy.
On paper, at least, he could check the boxes of an establishment candidate with real crossover appeal, and yet at the same time he could be a hero to the hard right.
I always saw this threat as mainly theoretical and I always believed that the governors of Ohio and Michigan had better cases to make about potential crossover appeal.
Walker doesn’t really have any non-establishment support to speak of, so it’s silly to talk about where his voters will go. The mega-donors who were supporting him and the talent he had assembled within his campaign will go somewhere, though, and I suspect that they’ll split between Kasich and Rubio, with some looking for a role with Fiorina or even Bush.
Mainly, I see this as chance for Kasich to solidify himself as the backup to Bush and for Rubio to move up a little in the pack.
I don’t see Walker suspending his campaign as having fuck-all for prospects of derailing Trump, despite Walker’s expressed wishes that bowing out would have that effect.
I also doubt it will lead others to quickly follow his lead. If this is a game of survivor, every one who didn’t just quit just saw their odds go up a little. If I had to say that anybody might be hurt by this in the short term it would only be the person who desperately needs one, but doesn’t get any bump out of it. It might hasten the day when it’s obvious that Chris Christie isn’t catching on, for example.
I guess Lindsey Graham is the most likely to follow Walker’s advice that people drop out and let some anti-Trump feeling solidify. Santorum, Huckabee, Pataki, Jindal, etc., all just saw an opening at the adult table open up.
They’ll be sticking it out for a while.
Huckabee has been at the “adult” table. A crazy Xtian loon, but unlike Walker, he’s been holding onto his 4-5% of like minded loons.
Santorum continues on with his belief that he was the strong second-place contender in 2012. Oh, he probably gets that he was also the “not Romney” candidate and is now pacing himself to be the “not Trump” candidate.
Jindal and Graham understand that as soon as they drop out they will be disappeared and both really want the opportunity to take more shots at Trump.
If Pataki drops out, will anyone notice?
Weren’t there some voices around here a while back that were of the opinion that Walker would be one tough candidate? Darn, I should have put money on him being out at the latest right after the IA caucus.
See below. My version of events is that it matters when you peak. You gotta peak when folks are voting. Once they see the tire tracks on your undies, you are heading for the exit.
You gotta peak when folks are voting. Duh.
But you have to be competitive enough before then to get sufficient donations to stay in the race until the election days.
Based on the 6/30 FEC filings, Perry was already in trouble in raising campaign funds. Worse than Perry on that measure was Fiorina, but she’s cheating by offloading most of her campaign operation to her gazillionaire funded Super PAC. Walker didn’t officially enter the race until after 6/30; so, didn’t have a read on his fundraising — which today’s announcement told us it sucked.
So, excluding Graham and Pataki, who drops out next?
Who’s next? The Wheel Tender pauses, thinks…
I thinks its Christie, and I says Oct 15.
Oh, I never go out on the limb as to timing. The next GOP debate is October 28 and all of them should be able to hold on until then just in case they luck out and win. Unlike Walker who apparently had a ninety person campaign team, none of the other except Jeb? and Paul seem to have much in the way of a campaign operation. Meaning their burn rate is low enough that they don’t have to face the choice of laying off people (a kiss of death because it does become public information) to remain in the pack.
OTOH, it’s entirely possible that Christie’s fundraising has been so poor that he’s already broke. And Carson’s burn rate based on his 6/30 FEC filing was high (am assuming that it’s mostly a direct fundraising operation and not a campaign operation). So, he may not be in as good a financial shape as his poll numbers would suggest.
That said, my guess is the same as yours. Christie is the next dropout.
I take issue with 2 statements:
I believe Walker’s leaving will have zero effect on the polls and on the money.
0% means no one gets any supporters. Yup.
I was wondering why I heard church bells ringing on a Monday, why more birds seemed to be chirping, why I seemed to have an extra spring in my step. This news about Dead Shark Floating Bruce Walker explains it.
Meanwhile, disturbingly, jeb? still remains in the race. Too much money, too much organization, too much entitlement to easily go away.
I still fear he’s going to be the last Gooper standing.
The Acronym Boy is a hollow man, a dead man walking, just waiting for a high wind to blow him back to …. where is he from, anyway?
Acronym Boy has no future. He stands for NOTHING except “I’m a Bush, and you’re not, so kiss my ass, and pay me for the privilege”. I have never heard a person exhibit the belief in Divine Right to Rule, but Acronym Boy did just that. Astonishing.
Jeb may still be in the race but I doubt The Donald will leave him alone. The Donald will continue to prove that Jeb is weak.
That fits with the “Trump is Clinton’s stalking horse” conspiracy theory.
Which I believe is correct.
This fits my version of the Great Wheel of Clowns. You go up, and spend your 15 minutes. Then you go down, and when you are at the bottom, there is often no second ride.
Now we have Fiorina the Incredibly Brash Liar in the seat nearing the top. Carson seems to have stalled out, Cruz is on the downside, Christie is second car from the bottom, Jindal is in the mud under the wheel, along with Santorum.
Now we will see. Fiorina has the burden of a public record, and the public record is not kind to her. There is at least one person, a B-school dean, who has branded her the worst CEO in the country or something like that. Will that matter? I think she will have the Walker trajectory.
Anyone know why it’s called “suspending” a campaign rather than “ending” it when candidates QUIT? Doesn’t “merely” suspending imply they could re-start it? Is the general assumption that a candidate MIGHT rejoin the race. Or is “suspending” the actual technical/legal/financial whatever term? Just wondering. Always been a pet peeve…
Might have something to do with not shuttering the campaign financial operation. Allows them a longer time in which to collect monies and pay off creditors. Takes a while for a campaign that recognizes that it’s broke to figure how deep in the hole it is and how it’s going to pay off the debt. iirc, it took until 2014 for Fiorina to complete that for her 2010 Senate race and finalize the closing of the campaign.
That sounds eminently plausible!
Uh, BooMan, that second paragraph of your post?
The last campaign promise he made was that he would eliminate the National Labor Relations Board and pass a national Right-To-Screw-Workers law. Some moderate bridge-builder!
In addendum:
Walker’s the guy who seemed most frightening when this go-round began. He’s obviously fallen flat, which has been a great relief. I’m so glad to see him bow out because I can’t think of anyone else half as scary.
We could survive a term with Bush or Kasich at the helm. I don’t think it will happen and it would really suck. But not on the same scale as a guy like Walker who might be able to sell himself as a moderate while pursuing a radical Tea Party agenda.
Fairly good postmortem on the Walker’s aborted (71 days from official inception) presidential bid at The Guardian: Scott Walker’s withdrawal from White House race shows money isn’t everything . The title is a bit misleading, but fully corrected in the article. Should have read “…shows Super PAC money isn’t everything.”
Interesting tidbit:
Minor quibble, the article suggests that Walker is merely a temporarily embarrassed rock star politician that will be back on the national stage at a more propitious time for a career politician. The reality is that once people got a look at him on the stump in IA and NH, they saw a clueless, charisma challenged doofus.
More on the reliance of Super PACs from the NYTimes: Scott Walker’s Demise Shows Limits of `Super PAC’ Money Model
By comparison, the “hard money” raised by Clinton and Sanders was more than three-fourths of what collectively the sixteen GOP candidates raised. And as of 6/30 the Clinton and Sanders campaigns each had more cash on hand than any of the GOP candidates, and the COH combined total for Clinton and Sanders is approximately equal to that of the GOP candidates.
Also note that as of 6/30 and for the combined campaign and Super PAC spending, Clinton was out in front — at $24 million. Followed by Jeb? at $13.4 million.
“could laugh for several days…”
Yes, these can really be seen as the days of high comedy in the Repub race, with the three utterly unqualified vanity candidates Trump-Carly-Carson now apparently holding the top three polling spots. Of course it can also be seen as troubling from a receptiveness to demagoguery perspective, but hell we’re on a downward trajectory anyway, so we may as well enjoy what we can…
Walker’s abject humiliation presumably ends his loathsome political career, but he can be proud of the massive damage he has wrought to WI. He’ll have to hope for a future of wingnut welfare and crony capitalism, sitting on boards as a rubber stamp for some powerful CEO. But sadly, these welfare benefits no longer seem to last a lifetime, especially if one is ultimately a doofus, as the sorry spectacle of Pinhead Palin demonstrates. And Walker is a sad sack as well as a doofus! He better get Pawlenty on the phone for some much needed advice on paying the mortgage and getting the kiddies through college. As a lifetime public employee, he’s really been thrown in the deep end!
Walker had no basis to think he had anything like the qualities needed to seize the brass ring, and he couldn’t even get off the merry-go-round without careening headfirst off his wooden horsie. A St. Reagan you’re not, Scott; that you even allowed yourself to imagine the fantasy in your own mind is pathetic.
Walker destroyed the finances of his home state and now shows that he can’t even manage to budget a goddam prez primary race competently, and this with massive plutocrat backing, for Christ’s sake! Now THAT’S incompetence. How in hell is Carly keeping her clownmobile gassed up? Has she found some lawyers who will let her access her PAC funds for her own operations, and Walker’s lawyers just said no? Is she just spending her own money?
Anyway, adios to the feeble Walker, he and too many of his inner circle must be borderline delusional.
One quibble: Jeb!? is upholding the family honor. That too is a vanity campaign.