Getting lots of post-mortems on the seventy day Scott Walker campaign for President. A major one seems to be at Politico: Walker’s campaign manager unloads. The opening paragraph is a decent summary of this and other reports:
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker pulled the plug on a bloated campaign that was headed into debt and was being undermined by furious donors, a warring staff and — at the root of it all — a candidate who was badly out of his league.
But what interests me more and seems not to have been remarked upon or questioned is from this:
“We built the machine that we needed to get a governor in just phenomenal shape to take a stage in a presidential debate,” Wiley said. “I think sometimes it’s lost on people the largeness of the job. I think people just look at it and say, `Wow! Yeah, you know, it’s like he’s a governor and he was in a recall’ and blah, blah, blah — he’s ready.
…
By Wiley’s telling, the end came fast. “June and July, up through that first debate, were good, fundraising-wise — really good,” he said. “Hitting your numbers. And we thought maybe we could even project [that] outward, like tick our numbers up a little bit.
…
When Walker and Wiley began building the campaign team in January, they made a bold, and ultimately foolhardy decision: Go big. Walker was the front-runner in Iowa polls through the spring and early summer, and he tried to capitalize on that momentum by hiring former Republican National Committee aides and Washington operatives, plus a Beltway PR firm to target conservative media, a full-time photographer and well-known consultants for outreach to evangelicals.
…
Note this again:
“June and July, up through that first debate, were good, fundraising-wise — really good,” …
Scott Walker didn’t officially enter the race until July 13, 2015. If June fundraising was “really good,” why no 6/30/15 FEC financial filing?
Before July 13, Walker had or didn’t have an “exploratory committee.” There are reports from January that he opened a committee. Then in February, Bloomberg reported: Walker May Skip Exploratory Committee in 2016 Run. Big and bold in keeping with the January campaign decision. Then — nothing for months. What was the hold-up?
A potential legal difficulties or campaign creative financing? Or both.
Here’s the deal from The Atlantic on exploratory committees. Per the FEC, an exploratory committee ends and a campaign begins under these circumstances:
- Makes or authorizes statements referring to him/herself as a candidate;
- Uses general public political advertising to publicize his/her intention to campaign;
- Raises more money than what is reasonably needed to test the waters, or amasses funds to be used after the candidacy is established;
- Conducts activities over a protracted period of time or shortly before the election; or
- Takes action to qualify for the ballot.
In addition to that exploratory committees are required to register with the FEC and donations from individuals are capped at $2,700, but the committee is not required to file financial statements and donor lists with the FEC.
That “really good” June fundraising was convenient. The end of the second quarter and avoided FEC reporting and still allowed Walker another two weeks before he couldn’t avoid being an official candidate.
The minute you say you’re running, though, the no-disclosure honeymoon is over. You have to tell the FEC how much you have, where it came from, and how you spent it — whether it was raised by your “exploratory committee” or just by some guys you’re paying, which is basically the same thing.
But what was the state of his campaign before June?
From FoxNews June 18, 2015: “He’s sort of keeping up with the Joneses:” Governor Walker inches closer to a run for president
Walker has still not declared he is running for President. He has indicated that won’t occur until after the Wisconsin Legislature passes a state budget, but he has inched ever so closely to doing it with the appointment of a presidential fundraising committee.
This also means he no longer has to rely solely on his super PAC. [emphasis added]
“When he had a 527 supporting him, he had no legal control of it but there were no legal limitations or contributions. And there was no disclosure of contributions. The step he took today was a step toward becoming a formal candidate but it means that now there will be disclosure on contributions and there will be limits on contributions,” said Mordecai Lee, UW-Milwaukee Urban Planning Professor.
…
Ah, so it was a 527 and not an exploratory committee that covered his presidential campaign operation from January through at least May. How exactly could that function with no coordination with Walker and those whoever may or may not have worked for him for his ephemeral “exploratory committee?” Who exactly did Wiley work for during that period?
If they followed the letter of the law, an iron curtain between Walker and the 527, it’s no wonder that such a naturally clueless Walker jumped onto the campaign stage in July. Too dumb to know that he’s ignorant of national public policies and nobody around him to coach him in all the months of preparation for his really big shew.
Too clever by half on the part of Wiley and others on the team milking the sugar daddies and mommies over those months, but also too dumb to recognize that Walker lacks breadth, depth, smarts, and charisma.
What was Walker’s cash burn rate in April through June? We do know what an authentic “go big” campaign costs because that’s what Hillary did in building a campaign infrastructure during the first three months. $19 million. The other campaigns(1) spent far less. So, was Walker up there with Clinton, down among the pikers, or somewhere in between?
In addition to the Clinton campaign, he can be seen from the 6/30/15 FEC filings that Paul and Sanders were building their campaign infrastructure out of their campaign funds. (Less sure as to what Carson and Cruz have spent their money on.) Is it plausible that team Walker’s notion of “go big” was comparable to Paul and Sanders’ total of $5 million before July? What were their estimates for third quarter campaign fundraising and spending?
All we know is that in just over two months they blew through whatever they actually raised in just over three months.
My “back of the envelope” estimates for the Sanders’ campaign from July 1 through half of Super Tuesday was $60 million. That was for a heavy ground operation campaign and approximately a third expended on media buys. More media and fewer troops, the Walker campaign could have made it with $30 million (SuperPac covering $30 million or more in media buys). Only a couple thousand maxi- ($2,700) donors per month or approximately $5 million/month from all donors. (Right on target with Wiley’s half a million dollars expected from a three day fundraising swing in Texas.)
They may have hit that $5 million/month target in June and July (although I suspect that even then they came up a bit short), but that likely tapped out all the Walker’s pre-campaign pledges from maxi-donors and all the other expected drips and drabs from “little people.” Wiley is correct that once Walker began speaking fundraising fell off a cliff. Who could have predicted that?
Back in her day, Molly Ivins pointed out that there are almost no campaign finance laws in Texas. And yet, Tom DeLay managed to violate it. Nationally, a few laws still exist, but it’s now more nearly like the wild west of campaign spending. Yet, it sure looks as if Walker was and Fiorina is trying to cheat their way to the WH. If they are allowed to get away with this, it will make it that much easier for the oligarchs to install their puppets.
(1)
The others – campaign committee spending In round numbers as of 6/30/15:
Carson $6 million
Cruz $6 million
Paul $5 million
Sanders $5 million
Bush $3 million
Rubio $3 million
Graham $3 million
Huckabee $1 million
SuperPac Spending* from Open Secrets:
Christie $5 million
Bush $4 million
Carson $2 million
Walker $2 million
Perry $2 million
Kasich $2 million
Clinton $1.5 million
Jindal $1 million
Paul $0.5
*(overview – for illustration; not precise in part because the reports are incomplete; so, don’t quote without doing your own research)
(Note: Bush’s SuperPac has recently committed to $24 million for media ads in IA, NH, and SC)
Combined known spending by 2016 Presidential candidates:
Clinton $20.5 million
Carson $8 million
Bush $7 million
Cruz $6 million
Paul $5.5 million
Christie $5 million
Sanders $5 million
Rubio $3 million
Graham $3 million
Perry $2.6 million
Walker $2 million
Kasich $2 million
Huckabee $1 million
Fiorina $1 million
O’Malley $1 million
Jindal $1 million
