On the 2016 Presidential Race, other than direct preference polling.
First, getting it for free. Media Matters Network Newscasts’ Campaign Priorities: …
…ABC, CBS, and NBC have devoted a total of 504 minutes to covering the story in 2015. At this point in the 2007 race, 462 minutes had been dedicated to the race, compared to just 277 minutes given to the contest in 2011, according to Tyndall.
To date, Republican coverage far outweighs that of the Democratic primary, 338 minutes to 128 minutes.
…
To be somewhat fair, covering sixteen Republican candidates does require more airtime than covering four Democratic candidates and one “I wanna run” guy. That’s the beginning and end of any networks news fairness in this election cycle. (Another report has the evening news airtime for the first six months at 151 minutes for Democrats and 191 minutes for Republicans.) 29% (145 minutes) of those total minutes was devoted to Trump. On this one metric compared to his poll numbers, he’s under-performing.
Of perhaps more importance to GOP primary voters is FoxNews’ evening and primetime coverage. Media Matters reported on number of appeances in April, before the the campaigns were fully up and running, for the prior sixteen month or so period. At the top of that ranking was Paul (119), followed by Huckabee (81), Graham (72), Cruz (65), Rubio (60), Trump (48), Carson (47), Santorum (38), Perry (33), Walker (21), … Guess there is a variable that could be labeled as “too hot” and “too cold” on Fox that disadvantages candidates.
In second place for network news coverage of a campaign is Clinton who got 82 minutes. (The e-mail issue is separate and has received 83 minutes of coverage.) Jeb? rounds out the top three with 43 minutes.
Mitt’s “will he or won’t he coverage” over several months totaled 8 minutes. Approximately the same number of minutes as has been devoted to Christie and Sanders each. Has Biden’s “will he or won’t he coverage” to date equaled Mitt’s?
How much airtime has Fiorina received? Getting close to her 15 minutes?
Now onto the preliminary 9/30, top-line fundraising figures from the three candidates that had something to boast about. (Team Jeb? only said it was better than the 2nd quarter which was $10 million.) Three days on all the other candidates are still mum.
Dr. Ben had an impressive haul of $20 million. That brings his year-to-date receipts to $31 million. He’s claiming 600,000 donations from 353,000 unique donors. How did a political novice accomplish what Walker and Perry couldn’t and most of the other GOP candidates are struggling with? Since you asked, well you didn’t really ask, but if you had, the answer isn’t a mystery. The “Draft Carson for President” committee PAC was building a donor base for two years. In that time, it had raised $16.4 million dollars. Most of which was plowed back into the fundraising operation.
Less impressive is Dr. Ben’s cash-on-hand figure. Disclosed as “more than $12 million.” What that means is that his campaign has burned through $19 million. A cursory scan of his 6/30 report revealed little in the way of an on-the-ground campaign operation. (The PAC relied on independent contractors and employment agency temp workers instead of actual employees.) Expect some improvement on that measure in the 3rd quarter, but his ratio of fundraising costs to receipts likely remains very high.
Moving right along, Clinton raised another $28 million. No figures given as to number of donations and donors and ending cash on hand. Her campaign has been far more mindful than it was in 2007 in focusing on primary campaign fundraising dollars and not presenting a misleading fundraising figure by collecting and not segregating general election funds in its reporting. Of her $48 million 2nd quarter receipts, just under $1 million was GE monies. if her team was similarly careful in the 3rd quarter, her total receipts to date are $74 million. A spokesman from her campaign said that they are on target to raise $100 million by year end.
These are scary good numbers. Particularly when adding in Clinton’s potential for PAC receipts that can carry a significant chunk of the cost of media buys. And yet in multiple blog and news site comment sections, Hillary supporters are collectively freaking out over a guy that has raised only a bit more than half of Clinton’s numbers and doesn’t have a PAC.
All the figures released by team Sanders are:
$26 million 2nd quarter receipts. Campaign to date: $41 million, $1.3 million donations, 650,000 donors, and over $25 million cash on hand. That means that campaign expenditures to date have been $16 million.
…Advisers said that most of the spending went to the online fund-raising operation and to hiring staff. Mr. Sanders has 49 paid workers in Iowa, 43 in New Hampshire, 21 at his campaign headquarters in Burlington, Vt., and 27 elsewhere. He also has 15 offices in Iowa and nine in New Hampshire.
All excellent figures for Sanders campaign so far.
However, the fourth quarter in the year before a presidential election is when the best campaigns for that specific election cycle begin flexing their muscles and/or the worst begin to display their weaknesses. (The Walker and Perry campaigns can be labeled as the worst of the worst.)
Absent 2nd quarter spending figures and disclosure of office locations and staffing, it’s not possible to assign an overall quality grade to team Clinton. It could be alone among the best. The fundraising model is stronger than what she had put together in 2007. If she falls a bit behind in the early caucus and primary states, she won’t be strapped for cash to plow full ahead to the next ones. Or she shouldn’t be.
The Sanders’ cheerleaders can be cautiously optimistic. But must remain cognizant of the challenges ahead. The next two quarters must necessarily be pricey. The 3rd quarter fundraising costs are of concern because it appears that each new dollar in donations consumed significantly more in costs than they had in the prior quarter. That’s to be expected and may be fine to build up a solid and robust, carry-forward donor base. Not at all fine if those costs, in relation to dollars raised, in the next two quarters. Not really great if they remain flat. Bottom line, the more fundraising costs, the more dollars the Sanders campaign will need to raise.
Stay tuned.
Third Quarter FEC filings due by midnight 10/15/15
O’Malley in terrible financial shape. Of the $1.2 million raised, $1.1 million is itemized. His ending cash on hand is $0.8 million.
