DEM Debate — Remember there are two sets of judges, the MSM and ordinary people, and the former is more powerful as to shaping public opinion. In part because they control the organs of media in the days of the post-debate follow-up. Thus, it was practically no contest between Gore and Bush in their first debate, but the MSM declared that since GWB had done so much better than expected, it was practically a draw.
The MSM judges will have a thumb on the scale for Clinton. If that’s not enough, they will stick their other thumb on the scale for O’Malley or Webb, whichever delivers the better performance between the two. Unless we see a different and more aggressive Sanders at the debate, he’ll hold his own, but the best he can score with these judges is a draw.
The committed supporters of any of the candidates will, unfortunately, put a thumb on the scale for their preference. Unfortunate, because that clouds their perception of what took place at the debate. Generally in these multi-candidate forums, none of them are impressive. And few are so pathetically bad that they aren’t seen or heard from again.
Unless the moderators strictly enforce the time clock and don’t focus more attention on one of the candidates (which never seems to be how these things are run), Clinton will have this edge. In ’08 when this edge for her was more equally shared with Obama, he gained some points at her expense. The effect was subtle because he was only slightly more consistently better than she was. With the exception of Kucinich and Gravel, the others were all in the same league. Also note that only Clinton and Edwards participated in all the 2007 debates. The 2008 debates did help Clinton, but not because her performance improved against Obama.
The number of possible outcomes are finite but too many and boring to list. While a “clean” and clear win by O’Malley or Webb is possible, it’s one of those “what ifs” that too complicated to consider now. (And I’m completely ignoring Chafee and Lessig.) So, the possible basic outcomes are:
- A Clinton MSM “win.”
- Clinton-O’Malley or Webb MSM tie “win”.
- Clinton-Sanders MSM tie “win.”
- Sanders-O’Malley or Webb MSM tie “win.”
Under outcome #1, Clinton consolidates her support and picks up those waffling between her and Biden. Sanders would stall or lose a few points in the polls. Any window for Biden would be closed.
The second one would also lead to a consolidation of Clinton’s support and O’Malley or Webb would pick up a large chunk of Biden’s poll numbers and some of Sanders’ soft support. Leaving Clinton only slightly short of closing the deal, but no room for Biden.
However, if public opinion differs from that of the MSM judgment wouldn’t that alter the equation and Biden’s decision under those two outcomes? Not really. It would only define whether it was a two person or three person race with some chump change leftover.
The public judgement would play a larger role under the third MSM decision — Clinton-Sanders tie “win.” Possible public opinions:
a) Agree that it was a tie and both are equally strong.
b) Disagree and Sanders was the clear “winner.”
Under (a), both Clinton and Sanders would move up in the polls at Biden’s expense. Under (b) Sanders number would increase but Clinton’s wouldn’t collapse.
There’s one more #3 public opinion potential outcome:
c) Agree a tie and “meh” for all four of the candidates. That’s a large opening for Biden.
The last one #4.
a) If the public agrees, Sanders and O’Malley move up at Clinton and Biden’s expense. Clinton’s operation is too robust for her to fall further than 2nd place in national polling based on one debate. O’Malley moving into a contender slot means Joe stays out.
b) If the public disagrees — Sanders the clear winner and O’Malley merely a distant second — chaos in Camp Clinton. Biden moves in.
Eight plausible outcomes. Only two of which would favor Biden getting into the race. As Joe is his own sort of “meh” and Clinton is staying in the race, under the 3(c) scenario, Biden would have to out hustle Clinton and Sanders. That seems a high bar to me. Thus, 4(b) is the most realistic scenario that would lead to a Biden candidacy. (Of course he could screw this all up by jumping in before the first debate.)
7 Major Headlines: Clinton Clearly Winning the MSM War!
Initial reports from the public judges disagree agreement by a wide enough margin that they (contrary to my projection) may carry weight. And O’Malley should move up from being an asterisk but not sufficiently strong or different enough from Clinton or Sanders to move into being a viable contender.
Bottom line, Biden stays out of the race.
