I understand the impulse that led Gary Legum to compare Jeb Bush’s campaign to a dead parrot that has “shuffled off this mortal coil.” I understand it because I suffer from the same impulse. I keep having to exercise self-restraint to avoid writing precisely the kind of pre-autopsy that Legum has just penned.
It really couldn’t be easier to mock Jeb Bush and his political aspirations. They are the lowest of low-hanging fruits.
But his campaign isn’t dead, yet.
And his campaign isn’t dead for the same reason that John McCain’s campaign wasn’t dead when he completely ran out of money and had to start over from scratch. It’s the same reason that Mitt Romney could simultaneously be the very last choice of the Republican base (after they had chewed over “serious” candidates like Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Herman Cain) and the Republican nominee.
I’m not talking about Republican voters having a come-to-Jesus moment when they realize that they have to nominate someone with an iota of general election plausibility. I’m talking about the sheer impossibility of nominating Tom Tancredo or Fred Thompson or Rick Perry.
And, frankly, Tancredo, Thompson and Perry were considerably better prepared to handle the nuclear football than Donald Trump, Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina.
Say what you want about Jeb Bush’s warmed-over policy proposals, he wouldn’t spend his first 90 days in office trying to work the light switches in the Residence or asking random Marines how to find the Situation Room.
Legum also compared the Jeb campaign to a zombie that doesn’t know it’s dead, but it could be that the more apt zombie comparison is that Jeb’s campaign is hard to kill and has a remarkable and frightening ability to come back to life.
I’ve said myself that Jeb has no juice. I’ve said that he doesn’t have what it takes. I’ve said that I see no real sign that he can fix his problems. That’s all true.
But I can’t count him out for a simple reason. Until I see the Republicans nominate a candidate as weak and ridiculous as their frontrunners, I won’t believe it will actually happen.
What you want to watch is not Jeb’s fundraising numbers or even his polling numbers. What you want to watch is if any of the other candidates who have some actual relevant experience and who would be acceptable to the Republican Establishment (sorry, Ted Cruz) start getting some real polling traction.
Jeb can be supplanted but the widespread desire for a non-joke candidate cannot.
What’s going to make me laugh is if either Rubio or Fiorina become the true Establishment alternative to Bush. That would be the rough equivalent of the Democratic elites arguing over whether Jack Abramoff or James Traficant would make a better party leader.
If you want some real perspective, consider this: the real dead parrot here, the thing whose “metabolic processes are now history,” is the Republican Party itself. And Jeb is supposed to be their defibrillator.
I think that’s what the exclamation point was all about.
