Month: January 2016

I can’t improve on Ryan Lizza’s explanation of what’s wrong with Ted Cruz’s mailer to Iowa voters. All I can say is that I’ve been familiar with this general tactic for about six years. I learned about it in a seminar I attended at the Philadelphia Convention Center that was hosted by Keystone Progress.

The way it is supposed to be done is fairly straightforward. You obtain a copy of the state voter file, which will tell you whether or not voters participated in recent elections. Then scores are assigned to each voter. Voters who participate in every local, primary, and general federal election are given the highest score. These folks get themselves to the polls so there’s no point in wasting time, effort and money in trying to get them there. There are voters who vote sporadically, voters who only vote in general elections but never in primaries, and voters who participate often, don’t bother with strictly local elections. There are also some registered voters who don’t seem to vote at all, although they’ll eventually get purged from the list if they don’t show up. The last group are the newly registered folks. They can’t be scored, exactly, but they can be treated as unlikely voters and put on a must-contact list.

Once you’ve scored the electorate, you can generate a list of those least likely to participate and send them a mailer. The mailer will show all the recent elections and whether they voted or not. It will also show whether some of their immediate neighbors voted or not. The message will be stated clearly, but also strongly implied. If you don’t vote, your score will get worse. Not only that, but your neighbors will know that you didn’t vote. In fact, they also received mailers like this, so they already know that you haven’t been turning out lately.

If this is done correctly, it will be completely legal but also tremendously obnoxious. Most people feel that their ballot is a very private matter, and the idea that someone is telling their neighbors about their voting history is galling. It comes across as not only an invasion of privacy but also as a threat.

Yet, it’s probably the single most effective way to get people to the polls.

In 2008, academics at Yale published an influential paper showing that one of the most effective ways to get voters to the polls was “social pressure.” Researchers found that registered voters in a 2006 primary election in Michigan voted at a higher rate if they received mailers indicating that their participation in the election would be publicized. The mailer that had the biggest impact included information about the two previous elections and whether the recipient and his or her neighbors participated or not. “We intend to mail an updated chart,” the mailer warned. “You and your neighbors will all know who voted and who did not.”

What Ted Cruz appears to have done is to take what was already a heavy-handed tactic and ramped it up to eleven. Everything about his mailer is wrong. The top of the mailer says that it’s a notification of a VOTING VIOLATION, which is complete bullshit. Voters are free to vote or not to vote.

Then the scores are given as percentages and letter grades, but without showing which elections and how many of them are being scored. Those who have looked into the scores have confirmed that they’re not based on any actual voting history. The numbers and corresponding grades are just made up.

The mailer also misrepresents how the caucuses work. In Iowa, the secretary of state doesn’t keep track of caucus participation the way they do in, say, Pennsylvania, where we have a primary. As you might imagine, the secretary is pissed off.

“Today I was shown a piece of literature from the Cruz for President campaign that misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law. Accusing citizens of Iowa of a “voting violation” based on Iowa Caucus participation, or lack thereof, is false representation of an official act. There is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. Any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and I believe it is not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses.

Additionally, the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office never “grades” voters. Nor does the Secretary of State maintain records related to Iowa Caucus participation. Caucuses are organized and directed by the state political parties, not the Secretary of State, nor local elections officials. Also, the Iowa Secretary of State does not “distribute” voter records. They are available for purchase for political purposes only, under Iowa Code.”

I’ll leave it to election lawyers to figure out if the Cruz campaign violated any laws here, but they clearly violated the spirit of the laws. And they just didn’t execute this correctly. Even done right, the risk of blowback from this tactic is so strong that it isn’t clear that it’s ever worth the costs. But, in a social media world where people can use their phones to take pictures of your mailer and have it on Facebook instantaneously, you can’t cross the line like this.

All the Cruz campaign did was tell thousands of potential voters that they’d made up a score and told their neighbors that they’d flunked the test.

This is what I’d expect from Cruz. He’s all brains and no judgment.

With the looming retirement of Freedom Caucus wingnut Cynthia Lummis, the reliably Republican at-large Wyoming congressional seat is wide open, and there will be about eight candidates vying for it–among them, Liz Cheney, the daughter of the worst vice-president in the history of our country. Ms. Cheney attempted to oust Republican Sen. Mike Enzi in a 2014 primary, but, as I predicted, she fell on her face in spectacular and humiliating fashion and dropped out in 2013.

Part of the problem for Liz back then was that the people of Wyoming are conservative but they’re not allergic to compromise. It was also a problem that she’s not really from Wyoming despite her father having served in the seat she now seeks.

Ordinarily, I’d give her zero chance of winning this seat, but in a seven or eight person plurality-wins election, simply having the most name recognition might be enough.

The nation needs a new Cheney in Congress like it needs a hole in the head. So, break out the garlic, the wooden stakes, and whatever else can ward off or defend against the undead.

Looking through the final Des Moines Register polling numbers, I’m struck first of all by how stunningly unsuccessful Jeb Bush has been in winning support. He’s polling at 2%, which means that one out of every fifty people say that they intend to caucus for him. He’s the second choice of 4% (or one in every twenty-five respondents). His 53% unfavorable rating is higher than anyone else polled, including Sarah Palin. His net favorable rating is minus 12%, which is only surpassed by Palin’s minus 13% rating.

When asked how enthusiastic they would be to vote for a candidate in the general, only John Kasich has a lower rating, and that’s because Kasich appears to be largely unknown in the Hawkeye state after having focused all his efforts on winning in New Hampshire.

We really need to stop and savor this complete collapse of the House of Bush.

The numbers are hard to explain if you restrict yourself to looking at Jeb without considering the family legacy. Jeb hasn’t been a particularly negative or divisive campaigner. He’s tried to be more of a sunny optimist, at least until it became clear that that tact wasn’t going to work. If he’d been savaging people left and right, it’d be easier to understand his sky-high unfavorables.

Considering how poorly credentialed the other leading contenders are to take over the job of the leader of the free world, you’d also think that Jeb would be the second choice of more voters.

With Bush’s enormous budget, you’d think he’d break through with some people through advertising and also through pure organizing power. Neither seems to have happened, which can’t be explained away as simply poor messaging or resourcing. This is more of a situation where it doesn’t matter what Team Bush does, there’s simply no way to get people to consider going back to their family for leadership.

I’m most interested to see if my theory was right that Ted Cruz would pay a fatal price for being hated by everyone. No matter how unpopular the Republican Establishment is, they still have a lot of influence. And it matters that people are more interested in seeing that Cruz doesn’t come in second in Iowa than they are in assuring that Trump doesn’t come in first.

But Cruz has invested in a ground game and made a lot of connections with influential people in the state.

Something’s gotta give.

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the towered Victorian painting.  I am using the photo seen directly below.  I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on an 8×8 inch canvas.

When last seen, the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

Starting at the top, I’ve added a lit area to the tip of the turret.  The corresponding tip shadow just below is now highlighted in the same color.  To the left, the entire left side of the house has been overpainted in a pale yellow.  I just prefer the look of this color to the plain white.  Changes to the trees and lawn are simple.  I’ve added some lit areas to each.  The half hidden building in the left side shrubbery appears in shadow.  With these changes the painting is complete.

       
The current and final state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have a new painting to show you next week. See you then.

Earlier paintings in this series can be seen here.

 

with a delegation of experts from a broad field.

• Signed contracts worth €18bn in Rome
• Made cordial visit to the Vatican
• Placed an order for 114 aircraft from Airbus in Paris HQ

It was France which dragged its feet before signing the nuclear deal with Iran lifting sanctions. Hollande and Fabius were the heroes in Jerusalem and Riyadh. Even Netanyahu took a few moments to say nice things about France he hates. Hollande was welcomed by the Gulf states and signed contracts to deliver billions worth of military aircraft and goods. Also played tough with Russia’s Putin and had to cancel the delivery of two aircraft carriers (later sold to Egypt?!)

The Rouhani signature under the Airbus order wasn’t even dry when FM Fabius was sighted in Jerusalem conveying a new threat to the state of Israel:

○ France to recognise Palestinian state if deadlock with Israel not broken
○ After delay, biggest Syrian opposition group to attend Geneva ‘talks’

Hollande already has forgiven Putin ahead of the rest in the Atlantic Alliance and made a statement he wants Europe’s boycot of trade with Russia to end in 2016. The oligarchs in the Ukraine will have to decide amongst themselves whether to drive the nation into oblivion through infested corruption. The Maidan revolution is all but forgotten, the culprits of the MH-17 disaster will not stand trial, and the West’s coup d’etat left behind delusion and economic disaster.

○ Ukrainians Disillusioned With Leadership: Approval rating Poroshenko at all-time low of 17%
○ Washington plays Russian roulette | Asia Times | by Pepe Escobar | Nov. 2014 |

This time in Lombard IL, much further South than Barrington IL, location of the last anecdote. Lombard is near what used to be called “Silicon Prairie” and has a correspondingly much higher Asian population percentage. (I haven’t bothered to look it up. I have eyes and can also read restaurant signs. None of the signs in Barrington say “Indian Cuisine” or “Vietnamese Cuisine”) Nonetheless Lombard is another upscale white collar community. I had taken my sister shopping and I was talking about the Bernie Sanders YouTube video that was linked to in a post here. My sister is an old time ’70s Liberal Feminist. I was talking about main stream politicians in the soup aisle and how worthless they are when another old lady turned and said, “And that’s why I’m voting for Trump!” I felt a surge of anger but kept a poker face. My sister turned and said,”That’s why I’m a Sanders supporter!” The stranger quickly replied, “Oh! Trump and Sanders are both OK, the others aren’t worth voting for!” She proceeded to tell her life story. She’s 74, the same as my sister. She has a B.A. from a local small Liberal Arts College, one that used to be a private woman’s college. She used to be an upper middle manager for a very big company. She was laid off at age 58 when the whole division she worked for was moved to India. That would have been 1999/2000 by her story. Dot Com Bust, layoffs were plentiful. I only lasted until 2001. My sister made it to 2002. This woman never got another job. Being a middle manager she had a good 401K and a lot of savings, but those are almost all gone now. She’s lived her whole life in Lombard but the taxes (DuPage County) are draining her. She tried to get a job at Burger King but when the boss hesitated a younger Latino worker (an illegal she called him, but how would she know?) called out, “You can’t hire her, Boss! She’s too old! She’ll never keep up!” Once she ran a division of a large company, now she’s humiliated applying for a job frying potatoes. We commiserated. My sister explained she and I were former IT professionals and the same thing happened to us. My sister got a part time job stuffing envelopes, but that petered out after five years. Too old to be quick enough. I silently thanked fate for my postal job. Without those eleven years of earnings and the pension, I would be in the same boat as my sister and the other lady. We talked some more and discovered we all hated the New York banks. My sister would like to see the bankers in jail. The woman wanted to see their bodies in the street. I thought of Mussolini and his girl friend and silently agreed with the woman.

It’s easy to dismiss this woman as a privileged white Suburbanite with a lot of racial prejudice and say that she has her just desserts. “When tomorrow is today, the bell may toll for some, but nothing can stop the shape of things to come.” However, I take it as one more indication of the angry mood of the electorate. I understand the anger. All three of us were told as kids that if we just studied hard and worked hard, we would have good lives, not be facing eviction and dog food in our old age. Meanwhile the TBTF banks are four times bigger than they were before the meltdown. They are the true beneficiaries of TARP and QE. That thought of Jamie Dimon and Hank Paulson hanging by their heels from a street light does bring a smile to my lips.

I also am interested in “Trump or Sanders, the others are all worthless.” Yes, faceless apparatchiks like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Clinton. It’s like the last days of the Soviet Union with the faceless gray men. And I never would have thought that a woman with that background would even consider Sanders without spitting. Our parents were blue collar children of immigrants who worshiped the ground FDR walked on, but I’m sure her parents were Republicans who cursed him.

Anecdotes are just that, but I wonder what will happen as I watch the stock market nosing over for another dive. FDR II with a Newer Deal? Or Fascist Amerika? (sic)

This is via IPhone and I can’t format easily. But at 2:05 am a post

Warning my blood is up

They gave me the packet at 5. Precinct 224 a single delegate that we would lose. But the sanders had Iowans for precinct captains everywhere in Des Moines but my Pricinct. It was in a gym that was shared with 225 and 226 and I could help

10 delegates at stake

The start was slow. As in 08 the Clinton people filled up the bleachers (which they allocated for themselves ). And then someone said look outside the gym. And at 635 a line snaked outside the school and into parking lot

It was in that moment when we realized everything written about turnout was nonsense Out precincts plus two other at the scool would blow turnout away. And we precinct looked at the bleachers full of old people and the line full of people under 40

Our hand count at 650 was bad. But we saw the line and thought there was hope

But

But the party didn’t have enough new voter forms

It was a few minutes later that I got into it with the Iowa site chair. The party fucked up. At 730 no caucus had started and the party person suggested the people in line should have gone hone

Let me explain something. I have been a part of Florida legal protection for a decade. I play by Florida rules. And in front of about 30 people I lit into him. The party support was awful and young people. – likely sanders supporters were leaving. I have seen this shit before

But in Florida I had backup. A boiler room willing to go into federal
Court. I had none if that. So I bluffed. Sone of the Clinton people agreed
But make no mistake what I saw was the same shit as i saw in Florida

224 went first. A clear and expected loss
226 went second. 67 votes for sanders 54 for Clinton. A 2 to 1 delegate split. 225 went last; 117 for Clinton 103 for sanders. A 3 to 3 spliced

Total Raw vote195 Clinton 191 sanders. Delegates split 5 – 5.

It is 845. But 221 222 and 223 were still checking people i

One of those precincts of which we expected a 4 to 2 split hS not reported

Much more to say. But too tired

3 delegates split 2 to 1

351
Three hours left. No one really knows what will happen
Q poll this morning giving everyone hope
Notes
Omalley may win one county jasper
The worry is still about the kids
One county chair is changing location supposedly ro allow for hire turnout. No sanders person believes this

6:00 am
Two new polls side. One has it 20-19-19 the other has it 27 25 22

Clear sign of a late Rubio surge. That has been the buzz over the last 12 hours. Talk to some people who think trump support is real in rural areas. But trump has no real organization and Cruz and Rubio do

In every Iowa cycle a candidate has beet their number 5 days out
Rubio looks like the most likely to do that

It’s late, and I start at 4 tomorrow am. So I am putting this at the top.

Started by canvassing for Bernie. Bernie has a lot of volunteer power, and though they started late they have finished much.

There is an emerging consensus on the race. I have spoken with a lot of Bernie people and I have friends in the Clinton camp. Some points in no particular order:

1. There is evidence in rural counties O’Malley will be viable. In 4 delegate districts there is concern in Sanders camp that this result in a 2-1-1 split instead of a 2-2 split.

2. I think the Clinton people have an edge that stems from having run before, and as a result having known supporters. This helped Edwards in 2004. I think they know who is for them a little better than Sanders does.

3. Will the kids come home? I talked to a Sanders person who told me the caucus will be decided by the under 25 vote. Will they leave UofI and ISU and NI and go home and caucus? If not, 25% of Sanders vote is packed in about 12% of the delegate precincts.
Irony – in 08 the worry is the kids wouldn’t go back to school.

Spoke with Dan Balz from the Washington Post about New Hampshire. If Bernie does well he thinks Bernie can easily survive a narrow loss in IA. What constitutes doing “well”. He cited me the Justice Powell line about pornography – we will know it when we see it.

Ladies and gentleman – I give you our national press corps.

On the GOP side the talk is really about the three way race. There is a poll out tonight showing a three way tie. That is not what the DMR found – but I think something big is in the offing on the GOP side.

Meanwhile, Bernie is up 25 in NH and everyone says the same thing: If Bernie wins NH and NV he will have Clinton on the run. But no one knows what is happening in Nevada.

Tomorrow morning I go to morning joe.

My apologies – I believe the diary I had before was somehow deleted.

I get to Iowa Friday.  I work a precinct Monday

Make what you will out of the polls.  About 30 – 40% of Iowa voters decide in the last week according to the exit polls.  What happens in the last days will matter.

I have no idea what will happen. No one else does either.

I will keep this as just a thread of observations like I did at open left in 08.  A friend and Clinton supporter tells me Sanders is winning the yard sign war by a huge margin in Cedar Rapids.  Make of it what you will

I know the Clinton people were late with the signs in Iowa.  They are late in New Hampshire was well
.

But as the Obama people said over and over again in Florida in 2012 – Yards signs do not vote.

Iowa is it.  The one chance to stop the neoliberals – perhaps
for 8 years. The one chance progressive politics has to make a dent in the system.   The stakes are enormous.  Iowa and New Hampshire are the best opening liberals have – and maybe the only one.   They are small enough so that you can have at least an even fight.  The only place in the process where money does not play an outsized role.

It is one of the ironies of politics that talking about it is fascinating, and being active in it can be boring as hell.  Being active means cold calling strangers, standing on their doorsteps, hanging literature on doors.  For the last 10 years or so it has meant getting up early on a Florida morning in November to be at a precinct when it opens, and staying all day and try and stop voter suppression.

There is nothing glamorous about it.

Sanders is so not a perfect candidate.  But 35 years after he became my mayor I am proud to stand with him.

Update [2016-1-27 0:1:26 by fladem]:
1/26
New Iowa Poll
Iowa State – 1/5 1/22
Clinton 47 Sanders 45
Cruz 26, Trump 19, Carson 13.4, Rubio 12.3, Paul 7, Bush 4
Only 3% respondents under 30.  Those under 30 tend not to have landlines.

ISU polled in 2012 – their results were about average for the time frame.

Carson remains a significant factor in Iowa – he is taking vote that would otherwise go to Cruz.  With Cruz getting pummeled by negative advertising and Carson being ignored, Carson final act may be to let Trump win. The date of this poll may have missed Trump’s surge in Iowa – if you want to call it that.

Campaign News Stories

Trump will skip debate

Word of a Democratic Debate – is Sanders skipping?. A sign of Clinton desperation?

Sanders to meet with Obama

Update [2016-1-27 8:57:38 by fladem]:
Quinnipiac, Sanders +4, 49-45
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01272016_I62pmst.pdf

Update [2016-1-27 11:24:51 by fladem]:
Cruz estimates GOP turnout of between 126 and 135K, and Dem turnout a little less than 2X that.  ’08 GOP turnout was 120K, and Dem 227K.  If true look for a big Dem turnout – good news for Sanders.

Update [2016-1-28 8:55:0 by fladem]:
Polls:
Marist 48 Clinton, Sanders 45.
Harold Enten of 538 notes Clinton is up 25 in the poll among verified registered voters, down 18 among those who are not.  538 believes polls not using verified registered voters are overstating Sanders.

Good press for Sanders from meeting with Obama, NBC News Interview

Debate over debates ends with Sanders agreeing, but demanding more

NH polling now a blowout.

GOP IA: Cruz is sinking, some sign of Carson actually increasing.

Dispute over use of LCV logo in Sanders mailers – LCV stays out of the dispute (talked to head of LCV field org in an early primary state)
Update [2016-1-29 13:35:6 by fladem]:

Des Moines impression:  I am struck (and in fairness NH is the same way) at how invisible for the most part the Caucus is.   I sit eating lunch and none of the tables around me are talking about t.  A serious case can be made that post WWII History cannot be understood without some understanding of IA and NH.  And yet for all its influence on US and even World events, it is not an all consuming passion.  U of Iowa football surely inspires more passion and talk.

I like Des Moines for the most part.  Iowans are certainly friendlier than Vermonters (though to be fair who isn’t).  

PPP Poll out this morning has it Clinton +8, a shift of 2 since the last poll.  Everyone will be focused on the Des Moines Register Poll – which comes out at 5:45 CST.  

I start phoning tonight, and canvassing tomorrow

I am writing at Bleeding Heartland today about polling in the last 72 hours.  Hint: every national front runner has had their Iowa Margin decline in the last 72 hours.
Canvassng in west desoines
Sanders behind where 3 campaigns where I’m 08
Good volunteers
Less enthusiasm in houses than I expected

Doing ok
Update Sunday 9 cat
The dmr poll came out 45-42-3
I was struck by the high undecided. In the past the tendency has been for the national front runner to lose ground late. Selttzer found no sigh of that as she did in 12 and 08.
The word from both campaigns is Sanders doing better in the inner des Moines suburbs than Clinton. Clinton doing better in the west des Moines suburbs where Obama did well
It’s close.
But the consensus is as sanders vote is over concentrated in precincts. I found Sanders votes who can’t caucus because they have to work. It is easy to forget the caucus makes it hard for working people
Sanders also needs the kids who are at ui and isu to come home

No one is prepared for a result within 1 or 2 points. It is unclear what the impact will be

We may be sick of talking about Hillary Clinton’s damn emails but we’re going to be talking about them whether we like it or not.

Young voters turned out in big numbers in 2008 and then stayed home in record numbers in 2014. There are many explanations for this, but one that’s not talked about is their attitude toward democracy itself.

Research recently presented by Roberto Foa and Yascha Mounk shows growing disillusionment with democracy—not just with politics or campaigns, but with democracy itself.

This growth is worldwide, but it is especially strong among young Americans. Fewer than 30 percent of Americans born since 1980 say that living in a democracy is essential. For those born since 1970, more than one in five describe our democratic system as “bad or very bad.” That’s almost twice is the rate for people born between 1950 and 1970.

This is hopefully a transient phenomenon. The failure of the Arab Spring and struggles in the European Union probably explain the global downtick, but here at home it’s probably related to the dysfunction, gridlock and non-responsiveness of the federal government, especially Congress.

It’s not clear what young folks think is the better alternative to representative government, but who can blame them for not being enamored with their representation?

So, when we see the outlines of fascism forming on the right, is that really surprising? If you give the people Weimar, someone will step into the breach.