Back in December 2011, I noted that influential members of Iowa’s Republican Party were so concerned that Ron Paul might win the caucuses by attracting Democrats and independents that they began warning voters that such a result could spell the end of Iowa’s special first-in-the-nation status. As it turned out, Ron Paul did win the caucuses, but that didn’t become clear until months later when the real delegates were selected at the party’s state convention. On caucus night, Romney was announced as the winner. More than a week later, that was revised and Rick Santorum was declared as the sort of/kind of winner. It turned out that they’d lost enough votes that they couldn’t be sure who had won.
Something similar happened on the Democratic side this time around, and the Des Moines Register is mortified. They’re calling for a full audit, which has so far been denied by the chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, Dr. Andy McGuire.
What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period. Democracy, particularly at the local party level, can be slow, messy and obscure. But the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy.
Here’s what they saw firsthand:
Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.
As I’ve said, the Iowa caucuses are a fraud. And all this bellyaching is a waste of time because the results are basically an even split of the delegates regardless of who won any coin flips or whatever problems they had on the margins.
They can audit the results as the Sanders campaign is insisting they do, and I see no valid objection to that. But it won’t change anything except possibly which candidate they say “won” a flawed and ridiculous process. At the very most, an audit might result in the loss of one delegate for Clinton which would be assigned to Sanders instead. Sanders could get the same result from flipping one superdelegate from Clinton to himself. How much effort do we want to expend to try to find a different result in Iowa? The problems are of a type that preclude getting a final and definitive result.
The Register is flipping out because they don’t want to lose their first-in-the-nation status, but they should abandon their caucus system (and find some work around of New Hampshire’s first-primary law) if they want to maintain their special place in electing our presidential nominees.
I can only imagine what would happen if the state were winner-take-all. In that case, they never could have determined who won the Republican caucuses in 2012 or who won the Democratic caucuses on Monday night. The only reason this system is viable at all is because the results are proportional and huge mistakes don’t really have any meaningful effect. For practical purposes, it matters so little who “won” that it’s not worth fighting over.
Except, it cost Rick Santorum that he wasn’t seen as the winner in Iowa until after New Hampshire had voted. And it might be costing Sanders that he didn’t get declared the “winner.” That’s why this process is a fraud. It only matters in terms of who gets to say they won. And they can’t even get that part right.
Does anybody like EVER research something before they talk about Iowa and New Hampshire.
New Hampshire state law states no similar event can go before it in the state schedule. Because this law is old, it will prevail in a choice of law suit if another state adopts a similar statute.
Iowa goes ahead of NH because it is a caucus, and therefore not a similar event.
So Iowa cannot become a primary, and will never become a primary until a national law fixes state primary dates.
The Dems should adopt the GOP system – paper ballot, not threshold, one round of voting.
well, that’s true about New Hampshire.
And I guess I should have mentioned it. But Iowa could could adopt the same law and then what?
Choice of law.
NH will win, probably.
How does one state pass a law binding on another? Should Illinois pass a law that no other state shall allow concealed carry?
Federal law would be binding, bu5t how does NH dare to tell another state when to hold a primary? Who made them King?
Technically, that NH “first in the nation” primary law is somewhat recent. iirc mid-90s. It became a tradition that nobody challenged for decades for two reasons: 1) primaries played a small role in the nomination until reform efforts in the 1960s-early ’70s 2) the NH primary wasn’t take seriously by those outside NH. After that both Iowa and NH came to be viewed as good enough tests states because they were small and it didn’t cost the candidates too much money to compete in either one. That’s no longer true, but neither of them are going to give up their status because the caucus/primary is a significant and reliable revenue source for the states every four years.
It was Louisiana (IIRC) researched it some years ago (think it was them) and concluded if if ever came to a suit they would lose.
IA and NH defend their status in tandem – it makes them more powerful than they would be otherwise.
Here is how absurd it is: At every Dem Convention I have ever been to IA and NH are right next to the speaker’s podium, and have far more guest passes than other states.
I have no idea how a New Hampshire can pass a law restricting what other states do regarding primaries. Zero jurisdiction, not enforceable.
However, both political parties have through compromise and back-room deals encoded certain terms in their presidential primary rules that give Iowa, New Hampshire, and others preferred position. Thus New Hampshire is guaranteed the first primary election by both parties, and Iowa the first caucus. But these can be changed.
The caucuses are a mess, and you’re right that in terms of delegates or actual impact, an audit wouldn’t do much of anything. It will allow the Bernie supporters to reinforce their persecution complex though, so expect them to use this to up their outrage level even though it’s essentially meaningless in practice.
Just for the record, there isn’t much “outrage” among Sanders’ supporters. Most focus right now is on NH next Tuesday and more critically, Nevada caucuses on the 20th. For most of us, I dare say (Sanders’ supporters that is), we believe we won Iowa fair and square. As Martin says, an extra delegate or two would have been nice, and maybe if Sanders continues to defeat Clinton going forward some superdelagates might switch over from Clinton to Sanders; that’d be nice.
But “outrage” is way overstating the reaction, I think. Perturbed. Irritated. Motivated. Re-energized. All of these things, yes. Extremely angry? No.
Good, that’s as it should be. I make the mistake of browsing reddit as a normal matter of course and unfortunately the supporters there might color my perception of Bernie supporters in general. That’s probably not fair, but heck, they’re really irritating.
Agreed. (I read the SandersForPresident reddit as well and there’s a little kibitzing about Iowa and the weirdness of it as described here but not too much bitching overall. Admirable restraint really, or maybe these folks just reflect Sanders’ own reasonableness and good judgement(?). Not sure which but there’s a lot more concern now about complacency going forward which is a little unnerving.) Thx.
One would think that after the last presidential race counting wouldn’t continue to be such a problem.
Counting heads is very difficult. Recording the number of heads is impossible.
In one of the precincts, we literally we counted like you used to pick sides for volleyball. There was a line of 103 Sanders people, and we counted them like they were cattle.
I’m sure it worked well back in the days when the herds were small.
This seems like one situation where the despised maxim “Look Forward, not Back” would best apply. Another commenter suggested that the Iowa Dems adopt a caucus system that mimics the R-Team, which sounds less likely to be so error-prone. That seems like the best thing to do.
I don’t blame Sanders for suggesting a recount, and I feel it’s unfair, at best, to portray him or his supporters as whining or other negative name calling. From what I can glean from various reports, it sounds as if the D-caucuses, in particular, were a mess, very disorganized with untrained people trying to run them, and frankly with some attempts at disenfranchising some D-voters (ie, I heard and read that some of those in long lines were told to go away; I have no proof, however, if these people did, in fact, leave without getting to participate).
It’s not a pretty picture, and pointing out the obvious is hardly whining.
However, I kind of doubt that a recount/audit will accomplish much for either Sanders or Clinton. IMO, which counts for nothing, I’d push for Iowa Ds to get their acts together before 2020 and then move on.
The Iowa GOP system couldn’t handle a near tie in ’12 any better than that DEM system could this year. To the credit of the GOP, they did go back an recount the ’12 ballots and admitted the error after it no longer mattered (not that a win in Iowa was likely to have improved Santorum’s chances in NH).
Funny how US voting systems fail when the results are close, or expected to be close, and not going the way the officials in charge prefer. That’s when we see understaffed precincts that will go the wrong way, but maybe not so much so if voters are discouraged by long lines. And counting the votes is more difficult in those elections.
Agree that Sanders’ campaign has to move forward at this point, but the public, particularly left leaning Iowa DEMs, doesn’t have to. It wasn’t hidden that a candidate that captures Iowa DEM institutional support has an advantage in caucuses. What wasn’t considered was that such support would go beyond fair and transparent in their advocacy. That a non-institutional candidate could lose voters/votes after they made the effort to show up and caucus. That is unacceptable and the Iowa DEM party should not be left off the hook for this.
I’m so unclear on how the caucuses works, so whether adopting something similar to how the R-Team does it – or doing something completely different – whichever makes more sense is the way to go.
Hope Iowa Ds can look at this and figure out something more workable.
The other thing I thought I heard a lot of: that the D caucuses seemed to be held in very small spaces, while it sounded like the R caucuses were held in bigger spaces. Hence, the long lines to get into D caucus areas.
What’s up with that? Sounds like Iowa Ds also need to work on where they hold their caucuses and ensure that there’s enough room for all concerned.
Just my random thoughts. I realize that it probably sounds easier to accomplish than it probably is in reality. But still…
As the Iowa caucus has been accorded ever more importance with each presidential electoral cycle (except when TPTB announce in advance that it isn’t this time), the public is only now waking up to the fact that it’s not democratic and easy to game by insiders.
Seems as if the IA DEM party elites decided some time ago that Clinton was the winner, and because there was unanimity among local, state, and national DEM elites (as there was in 2000 and 2012), turnout would be low and therefore, they only needed to reserve small rooms. That’s giving them the benefit of the doubt and that they are merely incompetent, partisan hacks and not corrupt, incompetent, partisan hacks.
How do you audit something that is basically unauditable? There are no paper votes cast on the Dem side. It is purely a head count.
Were there issues? Of course. But even that becomes irrelevant after the fact, unless you want to redo the whole thing, which isn’t going to happen.
It’s a quaint system. Maybe they could have “non-official” caucuses every year, maybe tie it into Groundhog Day (but maybe with a prairie dog) and then have a primary later in Spring.
Let’s get real here.
The “Iowa caucus” is nothing but a publicity event. It means next to nothing regarding which candidates the real voters of Iowa prefer. So…you must ask, why is it covered in the PermaGov media as if it’s the hottest thing ever??
The answer is right here in the complaints about “incompetence.” This is institutionalized incompetence. Purposeful incompetence. Strongly defended incompetence by the highest ranking members of the state party.
Why? Because “incompetence” leaves room for fixing. When the vote counts do need to be jiggered, “incompetence” is the perfect excuse. The hanging chads bullshit in Florida was another example of this.
Why bother in this little, relatively unimportant state as far as the end result nomination is concerned?
Because its results are capable of being magnified thousands of times over by the PermaGov-controlled media, that’s why. That magnification affects the next primaries, which are then further magnified by the same media. Eventually…if everything works as planned by the controllers…we end up with two complaisant puppets ostensibly running “against” one another. Win/win for the bad guys, lose/lose for the people. That’s how this “fix” thing really works, folks. Wake the fuck up. Your parties are as corrupt as is your fucking government. Duh.
Who are the two candidates currently most feared by the centrist, duo-party Permanent Government?
Sanders and Trump, of course. They managed to dump Trump big-time…his polling numbers were ridiculously higher just prior to the caucus than where he ended up. Some of that was no doubt due to his weak local organization, but that much variance? It smells. In fact, it stinks to high heaven. He’s bellowing “fix”.
And how does the Iowa satellite of the PermaGov react to this?:
Translation?
Sure.
They will shuck and jive until this falls off the news cycle, and Trump will be injured in NH. I personally believe that the controllers think Cruz campaign has no wings, so they are using it to take down Trump. Then they’ll make that good little boy Rubio the tomato can to HRC’s all conquering champeen. And then we’ll have 8 more years of neoliberal-shrouded criminality
And Sanders? I think that he would have won outright if it weren’t for the so-called “incompetence” factor, and I believe that he does as well. He’s treading lightly…he doesn’t want to alienate the DNC completely…but he has most definitely asked for an investigation, and is considering asking for a recount as well.
“Not the best way to do democracy.”
Indeed. the understatement of the campaign so far.
Just as it’s always been.
Within my lifetime, anyway.
Just as it’s always been since the JFK/MLK Jr./RFK assassinations.
They’re just…subtler…about it now.
WTFU.
AG
Now a stand-alone post.
The Iowa Caucus…and the Whole Primary Rigamarole…Is A Fraud.
Please comment there if you have a mind to.
And if you don’t have a mind? Please refrain.
Thank you and good night.
And now the news as the PermaGov media reports it.
From the NY Times:
Sigh…sometimes I’m afraid that I’m loosening my grip. Gonna go live in a cabin somewhere in backwoods Vermont with a big black bear as my watchdog.
Sigh…
AG
I left my mind in San Francisco. Please mail it to me on re-entry.
Right call …
○ Organized Mayhem by Democrats in Iowa Caucus by Oui
Wed Feb 3rd, 2016 at 01:14:35 AM PDT