Here is my first call of my electoral college predictions and state by state winners. Since Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lead in delegates for their respective parties, I am going with those two for this diary. (However, the states I have for Hillary, I also have for Bernie, with perhaps only slight changes) So without further ado, here goes.
Hillary states, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii. 24 states, 303 electoral votes.
Trump states; Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Louisiana, West Virginia, Tennessee. 23 states, 153 electoral votes
Tossups; Texas, (Yes Texas, I think Hillary has a shot) North Carolina and Florida, (Although I have it leaning Hillary). 3 states 82 electoral votes.
This is the first in a series of predictions coming on the election. No doubt things will change in the coming months. What do you think??
I think Nate Silver’s analysis is spot on: Hillary gets the Obama 2012 states plus NC, Georgia and Arizona. It’s interesting that there aren’t any candidate states for an easy flip apart from NC – the next set are all clumped together with 8-9% margins for Romney, which is on the edge of what would flip based on national polling.
I agree with Silver that a higher proportion of working-class whites will tilt Missouri and Indiana to Trump while Latino will move AZ to Clinton. Georgia could really go either way.
I’d guess Hillary would take Obama 2012 + North Carolina.
I don’t think she really has a shot at Texas or Arizona. Maybe a shot at Georgia, but I still think Dems are another cycle or two away there.