Month: March 2016

Former First Lady Nancy Reagan has died. My condolences to her family and her many admirers.

I want to share one thing with you that immediately sprang to my mind when I heard the news.

“Virtually every major move and decision the Reagans made during my time as White House Chief of Staff was cleared in advance with a woman in San Francisco [Joan Quigley] who drew up horoscopes to make certain that the planets were in a favorable alignment for the enterprise.” -Michael Deaver, from his memoir, For the Record: From Wall Street to Washington, (San Diego: Harcourt Trade Publishers, 1988).

I don’t miss the 80’s.

Seven Days of Genius
Thomas Piketty, Paul Krugman, and Joseph Stiglitz: The Genius of Economics (Video)(1:15)

https://youtu.be/Si4iyyJDa7c

Stiglitz nails it at 21:40: There are a lot of non-market forces that are not determining wages.

Apparently, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina had a conversation with Ted Cruz on Thursday. It occurred shortly after Graham said the party might need to unite behind Cruz in order to stop Trump from winning the Republican presidential nomination. This is how a party comes together at the end of bruising primary season.

Consider what Lindsey Graham said on January 21st about choosing between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump: “It’s like being shot or poisoned. What does it really matter?”

Consider that less than two weeks ago, Lindsey Graham made an appearance at the Washington Press Club Foundation’s annual dinner and joked that his party has gone “batshit crazy” and that if someone killed Ted Cruz in the Senate and the Senate held the trial, the murderer would be acquitted. In other words, Ted Cruz is so hated by his fellow Republicans in the Senate that they’d like to see him dead, and they would rather die themselves than see him become the party’s leader.

Last night, Cruz and Trump split the winnings, with Cruz doing better than expectations. Trump had narrower than expected victories in the racially enlightened Kentucky and Louisiana, while Cruz had a thumping win in Kansas and an upset victory in Maine.

Despite new signs of flagging momentum, Trump won 49 of the 134 assigned delegates and maintains a healthy 378-296 advantage over Cruz. Marco Rubio only earned 13 delegates and Kasich took home nine.

Ordinarily, we’d consider Trump to have had a so-so night that did little to stop his progress. Even though he didn’t get the most delegates, he won the two biggest states and the establishment’s favorite, Marco Rubio, was humiliated with three third-place finishes and a weak fourth-place finish in Maine.

But these aren’t ordinary times, and Trump is going to have to live up to a higher-than-usual standard. His opponents aren’t very optimistic about winning the majority of the delegates and getting the nomination outright in Cleveland this summer. Their goal is to hold Trump under fifty percent of the delegates and force a second ballot where they hope to be the compromise choice. By that standard, Trump only earned 36.5% of the delegates that were awarded yesterday. His chances seemingly got worse.

Looks can be deceiving, though. The Republican nomination process is complex and what’s bad in the short-term can be good in the long-term. If Rubio’s weakness last night is an indicator of how he’ll do in his home state of Florida, it’s more likely than ever that Rubio won’t be able to claim the winner-take-all delegates there. If Trump wins them instead, and last night contributes to his victory, then things may work out for the best for The Donald despite appearances.

Meanwhile, Kasich keeps hanging around, picking up small handfuls of delegates. His hope is to win Michigan and then his home state of Ohio. If he’s successful, he’ll make a major contribution to denying Trump an outright majority of the delegates. And, since the Republican establishment doesn’t feel like him winning the nomination would be the equivalent of being shot or poisoned, he figures he’ll be the most attractive compromise second-ballot choice.

He also benefits from Rubio’s weakness, especially because it reduces the cacophony of cries for him to get out of the race and stop hurting Rubio’s chances.

Finally, Cruz had the best night but may now have to take responsibility for beating Trump in Florida. There are two main reasons why Cruz can’t allow Trump to carry all the delegates from the Sunshine State. First, it would boost Trump closer to an outright majority. Second, it would give Trump a powerful moral argument in Cleveland if he has a big delegate lead even if he doesn’t have an outright majority. Trump could, after all, win on the second ballot even after failing to win on the first. That gets less likely the closer Cruz is to him in the final count.

The delegates will be bound to vote for the candidate they represent on the first ballot, but they can choose someone different on subsequent ballots. They’ll have to accept or reform Rule 40(b) which (as currently written) says that no candidate can win the nomination unless they’ve won a majority of the delegates in an at least eight states. This rule can be redrawn by the Rules Committee, so there will be opportunities for shenanigans and rewards for superior organizing at the convention. Kasich seems unlikely to win a majority (or even a plurality) of delegates in eight states, so he’ll need find a way to stack some votes on the committee. Rubio would face the same problem, but doesn’t have the advantage of being the governor of the hosting state.

Trump’s ace in the hole is ironically a moral argument that it would be wrong to change the rules to deny him the nomination if he has a clear lead in the delegate count. His delegate lead would also make it difficult to get the votes to change the rules in a way that disfavors him. And, despite sore-loser laws in some states that would make it impossible for Trump to run as an independent there, he could run in enough states to sink the Republican nominee. Finally, the delegates may make a pragmatic evaluation of the situation and determine that denying Trump would cause such a shitstorm at the convention and on national television that, combined with alienating Trump’s supporters, it would doom the party’s chances in November and cause all kinds of down-ticket blood-letting.

For now, at least, only Ted Cruz is in a position to conceivably overcome all these obstacles in Cleveland. But, to do so, he’ll have to mend a lot of fences with the Republican establishment. Making nice with Lindsey Graham is a good place to start.

With more than 80% of the vote reporting, Ted Cruz is more doubling Donald Trump’s support in the Kansas caucuses. Little Marco is far behind, but above the 10% threshold needed to get at least a delegate or two. Kasich is at about 9% and at risk of getting shut out.

Results:

Kansas caucuses (3 PM ET for Republicans, 4 PM ET for Democrats)

Kentucky caucuses, Republicans only (4 PM ET in the eastern half of the state, 5 PM in the western)

Louisiana primary (9 PM ET)

Maine caucuses, Republicans only (12 PM ET to 7 PM ET, varying by county)

Nebraska caucuses, Democrats only (11 AM ET to 9 PM ET, varying by county)

Need to remind anyone of Secretary H. Clinton’s warm embrace of Qatar – close ties Al Thani family with Bill’s Foundation – and the Muslim Brotherhood triangle Egypt’s Morsi and Turkey’s Edfogan.

Today:
○ Turkish authorities seize newspaper close to cleric Gulen – Zaman Today

Protesters confront riot police as opposition paper is shut-down by Erdogan APK gang and a government trustee group appointed to lead Zaman media.

BBC News – Zaman newspaper: Defiant last edition as Turkey police raid plus video. Saturday’s Zaman edition said Turkey’s press had experienced “one of the darkest days in its history”. Digital version Today’s Zaman: Error message – Error 521 Web server is down.

 « click for message of support for free press in Turkey
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A fortnight ago:
○ Erdogan: A New Hitler Stands Up Nov. 28, 2015

Before Secretary Kerry took over the policy chaos of the Middle East:
○ Sultan Erdogan Al Jazeera and the al-Thani monarchy  and princess Hillary of Al Jazeera and the al-Thani monarchy

US embrace of Morsi in Gaza conflict resolution shows the White House’s new detachment | Times of Israel – Nov. 2012 |

NEW YORK — It was a good week for Mohammed Morsi. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire [not brokered by Secr. Clinton – Oui],  which sees Egypt as the responsible enforcer of the peace, marks the final embrace of Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood government by the West.

“Egypt’s new government is assuming the responsibility and leadership that has long made this country a cornerstone of regional stability and peace,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said glowingly, standing alongside Morsi’s foreign minister Mohammed Amr.

“This was a major moment for Mohammed Morsi,” noted Nicholas Burns, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

“There were a lot of doubts about how he would lead Egypt, whether he would maintain the peace agreement with Israel,” Burns told the PBS NewsHour. But Morsi “showed that he is very tough minded. He was willing to pressure Hamas, he was able to work with the Turkish and Qatari governments as well as the United States. He can be, based on this performance, I think an important partner for the United States. I think this is a confidence builder both for the Israelis and Americans in knowing they have a stable and impressive leadership in Cairo now that we can deal with.”

[Linked from a diary – Qatar Fail in Arab Spring and Loss to Saudi Diplomacy ]  

Belgium: Dutch version Zaman Vandaag

○ US Foreign Policy, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood Ploy Oct. 13, 2012

Syrian ceasefire with Russian backing key to peace talks, say European leaders | The Guardian |

The Syrian ceasefire and its continued backing from Russia will help build a momentum behind peace talks in the war-torn country, European leaders have said.

The truce, which is broadly holding, began last weekend. The leaders of Russia, Germany, France, Italy and the UK held a conference call on Friday in which they agreed to use the “positive dynamic” to restart peace talks, a spokesperson for David Cameron said.

 “The main point that the European leaders made on the call to [Russian president Vladimir] Putin was that we welcome the fact that this fragile truce appears to be holding,” the spokesman said.

 “We have got to use this as a positive dynamic now to create some momentum behind the talks … so we can move from a truce into a more lasting, durable peace with a political transition away from Assad.”

Angela Merkel said in a news conference with François Hollande that Putin had told the others during the phone conference that Moscow is fully committed to the truce.

The German chancellor said: “I would like to stress one more time that the commitment to hold the ceasefire was confirmed as a key message by the Russian president.”

The five-year Syrian civil war, which began with the aim of overthrowing Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has killed more than 250,000 Syrians and millions more have been forced from their homes, creating a massive refugee crisis for Lebanon, Turkey and the European Union.

Vladimir Putin takes personal charge of Syria ceasefire effort

○ Townhall Meeting Ms Clinton with CNN’s Amanpour   June 21, 2014
○ Obama Sidelined on Syria, Hollande and King Abdullah Deliver Arms to Syrian Rebels   Dec. 16, 2013
○ Jordan: US forces plan shield against Syria   Oct. 11, 2012
○ The curious role of US Ambassador Robert Ford in Syria   NowMediaNews - on July 1, 2011

Gotta love the status quo. Given the chance between doing what’s best for all Americans or what’s best for their donors, they will choose thier donors every time. Even “liberal” politicians. Even, sadly, our current Democratic President.

We all know Republicans support Big Banks, Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big Tech, and so on and so forth. What’s sad though, is how many establishment Democrats from President Obama to Hillary Clinton to quite a number of Democratic Senators and Representatives are on the same page as those nasty GOP bootlickers and grifters, when it comes to serving the greater good of multinational corporations (from The Nation):

[T]he big hitters back in Washington politics are working on an ugly surprise not just for the kids but for all of us—another monster tax break for US multinational corporations.

The bad news is that key leaders of the Democratic Party—including the president—are getting on board with Republicans, despite some talk about confronting income inequality. Influential Democrats intend to negotiate with Republican counterparts on the size and terms of post-facto tax “forgiveness” for America’s globalized companies. This is real money they’re talking about a giveaway of hundreds of billions. […]

… Thanks to a loophole in the tax code, the companies do not have to pay US taxes on profits they have earned in foreign countries until they bring the money home to American shores. Altogether, the globalized US companies have accumulated $2.1 trillion in untaxed profits, most of it parked in overseas tax havens.

 The multinationals are waiting for Congress to forgive them their debts.

And it seems likely they will get it in the form of a bills proposed by President Obama and/or Republicans in the House that, at a minimum, would reduce the tax liability of these greedy multinationals from 35% to 14% on the profits they have parked in offshore tax havens. Senator Elisabeth Warren rightly calls this budding deal with tax cheats, “a giant wet kiss for the tax dodgers who have already parked $2.1 trillion overseas.” Big tech firms from Apple to Microsoft, and Big Banksters such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, are among the companies that would reap the biggest benefit from this shadowy tax giveaway which is backed by some of the most corrupt politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Indeed, many leading Republicans and Democrats dismiss Obama’s 14% tax gift as not generous enough. Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and her good friend(?) Rand Paul (R-KY) have proposed an alternative that woukld cut the tax liability of these corporations to 6.5% of their profits. Quite a deal if you can get it. Somehow I don’t expect to see Republicans or Democrats proposing to cut the taxes of small businesses or ordinary Americans by such a large extent, do you?

Orrin Hatch, on the other hand thinks even that is too much. His proposal would eliminate any tax liability for these multinational tax dodgers. While that is unlikely to pass, we already know that future Senate Leader and my Senator, Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has had friendly discussions with Rob Portman (R-OH) and House Speaker Paul Ryan regarding international tax reform.

In other words, expect the Democratic Establishment to cut a deal, either before the election or shortly afterwards during the lame duck session to get this done. Sure wish I was a massively large corporate person so I could avoid paying taxes on my income. Maybe if ordinary Americans all became shareholders in a single corporation, we could afford lobbyists to get us a cushy deal like Silicon Valley and Wall Street are going to receive, blessed by the establishment of both parties.

Does your vote really matter when whomever you vote for in November is likely to screw you over in favor of Big Business time after time? Ponder that question a while, and also this one: Do we live in a democracy anymore when our politicians are in thrall to the the people with the most money? I know the answers I would give to those questions.

I wonder what Hillary Clinton thinks about this giant wet kiss to Corporate America? Or Donald Trump? Maybe someone should ask them. I have a pretty good idea what Bernie Sanders likely thinks of it – not much. Maybe someone at the next debate or town hall or whatever should ask all of them.

Ladies and gentlemen, your alternate reality.

Hello again painting fans.

This week I will be continuing with the painting of the 1940 Plymouth.  I am using the photo seen directly below.  I’ll be using my usual acrylic paints on an 8×10 inch canvas.

When last seen, the painting appeared as it does in the photo seen directly below.

Since that time I have continued to work on the painting.

I’ve continued to refine the Plymouth.  The body now appears in a blue green closer to the color seen in the photo.  It’s a nice vintage color that we don’t see anymore.  On the front of the car I’ve added the grille bars.  FInally, I’ve added some preliminary paint to the 2 other cars.

The current state of the painting is seen in the photo directly below.

I’ll have more progress to show you next week. See you then.

Earlier paintings in this series can be seen here.

 

It’s an insult to Michael Moore to do this but he’s the best fit I can come up with as someone who might have resembled Trump during the 2008 election. Like Trump, Moore had increased his profile and won over the hearts of a lot of people by standing up to the sitting U.S. president and criticizing him with intemperate language. Like Trump, Moore was primarily an entertainer, and he excelled at self-promotion.

So, imagine, if you will, that Michael Moore had decided to run for president in 2008. To make this a little easier to envision, I want you to also pretend that Barack Obama never existed. The race was between the 2004 Democratic veep candidate John Edwards, the former First Lady and senator from New York, Hillary Clinton, and Michael Moore.

Now imagine that Moore had simply run away with the early primaries and caucuses, and he’d done so by being outrageous and flaunting conventions about how a candidate is supposed to act. Additionally, imagine that he was unmercifully criticizing Edwards, Kerry, and Clinton for having voted for the war and was blasting every major Democrat and Democratic institution for being weak and feckless and corrupt.

Now, imagine the panic and resentment in the Democratic establishment as they realized that the base of the party agreed with Moore and was willing to say “fuck it, at least this guy has the balls to fight the Republicans.”

Reasonable people would point out that Michael Moore had super high unfavorables and little appeal to moderates or independents. They’d note that he didn’t have the requisite experience to be the president and that his temperament was suspect.

It’s obviously not a perfect thought experiment because Michael Moore wouldn’t have advocated torture or received endorsements from organizations as loathsome as the Ku Klux Klan. He wouldn’t have held rallies where he encouraged his supporters to beat on protestors.

But that’s not the point. The point isn’t to denigrate Michael Moore. I just want you to try to put yourselves in the Republicans’ shoes.

What would have happened to the Democratic Party back in 2008 if Michael Moore was the likely Democratic nominee and Democratic lawmakers and thought-leaders were coming out of the woodwork to say that they would never vote for him under any circumstances?

No matter how much Moore captured the imagination and the energy of the anti-Bush left, he would have been slaughtered in those circumstances. And that’s because the Democrats can’t win national elections if they’re that badly split.

The left-wing blogosphere came into being because the Democratic Party and the media had been useless in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq. We were incredibly pissed off with our elected officials and the whole left-wing establishment.

But we didn’t follow the first person to come along with a little fame and a little charisma and think we could fix the Democratic Party that way. We wanted to blow everything up and start over, but what we actually did was far more practical.

Looking back, it worked until it worked.

Once Obama was elected, the blogosphere splintered into two main factions. One wanted to go to work with the president and the Congress we had helped elect, and the other wanted to continue screaming about tearing the whole thing down.

So, we had our split, too. But we waited to win, and win everywhere, before we lost our shit.

I guess it’s no surprise that Cleveland needs to spend some money on crowd control for the July 18-21, 2016 Republican National Convention.

Cleveland is seeking to buy 2,000 sets of riot gear, including riot-control suits and collapsible batons, as part of the city’s latest move to spend a $50 million federal security grant for July’s Republican National Convention.

The city this week posted to its contracting website a notice seeking bidders to provide the gear. City documents refer to the “Elite Defender” riot-control suit manufactured by HWI Gear and a 26-inch baton manufactured by Monadnock, plus 2,000 bags to carry them.

The city also wants to buy 310 sets of riot-control gear — long-sleeve jackets, gloves and shin guards — that would be suitable for use by police riding bicycles.

But I don’t know how many people realized that this is all going to be needed to keep the peace inside the Quicken Loans Arena.