Serious Question

This is less a criticism of their research on authoritarianism than a sign of my own confusion and laziness. But, when they say that non-authoritarian people can turn into authoritarians, are they saying that folks who feel very threatened can sometimes respond by changing their minds and deciding they’d rather their children be well-mannered than curious? Obedient rather than self-reliant?

In a really dire environment where your kids are under threat of getting kidnapped or murdered, I can see how this might happen, but not so much just because you’re out of work and there are a lot more brown faces around than there used to be.

There seems to be some definitional sloppiness here. I think it’s more accurate to say that authoritarian people are easily scared, and non-authoritarian people have different values. But when people are legitimately scared, regardless of the objective threat, they begin to act alike.

Not sure the article is clear on this, but it matters for what they’re trying to project for the future of the Republican Party and American politics.

Mass. Gov to Trump and Supporters: Drop Dead

Yesterday, in Massachusetts, a lot of people went to the polls to vote in the Republican primary. There were 310,847 folks who voted for Donald Trump. That gave him a very healthy 49.3% of the vote in what was basically a five-man race. John Kasich came in second place with 113,471 votes, which comes to a mere 18.0% of the vote. Rubio got 17.8%;, Cruz got 9.6%, and Carson got 2.6%.

That’s an overwhelming endorsement of Trump by Massachusetts right-leaning voters.

So, naturally, the first thing the Republican governor of The Bay State did this morning was endorse Trump, right?

Massachusetts Republican Governor Charlie Baker, under pressure from Democrats and the news media to take a position on whether he would publicly support Donald J. Trump, should he be the GOP presidential nominee, said Wednesday he did not vote for Trump on Tuesday and “I’m not going to vote for him in November.”

Now, most of these Massachusetts Trump voters are the same folks who gave Charlie Barker the surprise upset victory that made him the governor in the first place. If 49.3% of them (or thereabouts) are morally rudderless simpletons, how does that reflect on their decision to back Baker?

Seriously, it’s a demonstration of the incredible chasm that has opened up between the Republican base and the thinnest shred of human decency and intellect, that a guy can come into a state and win half the vote in a five-way race and basically sew up the nomination, and the governor of the same party’s reaction is to tell that guy and his supporters to drop dead.

For the GOP: The Day the Music Died

I just took a little Google screenshot to illustrate a point. Check out the times: February 26th and 9 hours ago.

That’s all the time that separates Lindsey Graham joking at the Washington press club foundation dinner on Thursday night that “If you kill Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody could convict you,” and declaring on CBS last night that “we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz as the only way to stop Donald Trump.”

I doubt this juxtaposition can be improved upon as an object lesson on the agony Republicans are experiencing.

But let’s see what we can do.

How about this?

“I don’t remember anything like this in my lifetime of effectively 30 years in Republican Party politics,” said Bruce Haynes, a GOP operative in Washington. “People don’t know what to do. They call me in tears and say, ‘I can’t vote for him because he’s a liar, a cheat and a racist and yet everything I’ve ever cared for in politics is on the line and could be lost if I don’t vote for him.’”

“It’s an impossible choice.”

Poor babies. Let’s cue the Simon & Garfunkel:

Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon
Going to the candidates debate
Laugh about it, shout about when you got to choose
Every way you look at it, you lose
Where have you gone John Boehner?
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you

No one cares what a lowly House backbencher thinks, particular one who is retiring in disgust, but let’s see what Scott Rigell says anyway:

Hours before the polls closed, he released an open letter on a Virginia conservative blog promising not to vote for Trump but not endorsing any other candidate.

“My love for our country ­eclipses my loyalty to our party,” said Rigell, “and to live with a clear conscience I will not support a nominee so lacking in the judgment, temperament and character needed to be our nation’s commander-in-chief.”

His Virginia district voted for Donald Drumpf in large numbers.

In another sign of the health of the party, the chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, would not commit to supporting Trump if he is the nominee. On the other hand, as recently as December, Gov. Martinez was reportedly drunk and fending off police who wanted to enter her hotel room to get her guests to stop throwing bottles off the balcony. So, you know, maybe no one actually wants her support.

What Trump did have last night was the support of a former head of the Republican Governors Association, the slowly deflating and visibly addled Chris Christie of New Jersey.

Of course, Christie had good reason to be in Palm Beach dining with The Donald at Marjorie Merriweather Post’s terrific Mar-a-Lago estate. He’s not welcome back home.

Six New Jersey newspapers say Gov. Chris Christie should resign over his endorsement of Donald Trump. They add that if Christie refuses to quit, New Jersey citizens should initiate a recall effort.

The papers on Wednesday ran brutal editorials saying they are fed up with everything from Christie’s famous sarcasm to “his long neglect of the state to pursue his own selfish agenda.” They add that they are “disgusted with his endorsement of Donald Trump after he spent months on the campaign trail trashing him.”

The New Hampshire Union Leader, which endorsed Chris Christie before Christie endorsed a guy who’s not sure the Klan is all bad, says that the New Jersey governor told them that he would never endorse Herr Trump. They’re not impressed.

Watching Christie kiss the Donald’s ring this weekend — and make excuses for the man Christie himself had said was unfit for the presidency — demonstrated how wrong we were. Rather than standing up to the bully, Christie bent his knee. In doing so, he rejected the very principles of his campaign that attracted our support.

Or, as Jennifer Rubin put it, “[Christie] has gone from someone admired for his political talent to the object of derision as an errand boy for someone who espouses fascistic ideas…”

Yes, pretty much. But it’s hard to indict a man when that man is the Attorney General of the United States. And, really, you can get the FBI and the prosecutors to back off while you’re an active candidate for the presidency, but since he’s dropped out he’s like a 1960’s kid who just graduated and lost his college deferment. Christie’s probably angling for any hope to avoid the hoosegow. “I don’t want to be your running mate, Mr. Trump, just put me in charge of the Department of Justice so I can go all Robert Bork on some muthaf*ckers.”

Do I kid? Yes, not really.

Politico’s Mike Allen believes it’s a bit loopy to think the Republicans can solve their KKK problem by denying Trump the nomination at the Cleveland convention:

The GOP establishment is now ONE for 15 in this cycle (and the one is liberal Minnesota, Marco Rubio’s sole win). After his Super Tuesday romp, Trump has a 90%-plus chance of winning the nomination. He has more delegates than Cruz and Rubio COMBINED, 10 wins, and big leads in upcoming states. Talk of a brokered convention seems nuts: Imagine the blowback from Trump and his followers if they were denied by a bunch of stuffy rich white dudes behind closed doors.

Obviously, Mike Allen missed the part about where there’s blowback if your candidate needs time to research whether he should disavow the support of the former Grand Wizard of the Louisiana Knights of the Ku Klux Klan.

And, so…

…to the convention they’ll go.

Where things should get quite fun

“I cannot support Donald Trump,” Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse wrote in a long Facebook post Saturday night. “If Donald Trump ends up as the GOP nominee, conservatives will need to find a third option.” At least four House members have followed suit, stating publicly they will not support Trump no matter what.

While American history is replete with presidential nominees who’ve been less than welcomed by their party’s power brokers, never in recent memory have so many prominent politicians vowed not to support a candidate who’s increasingly a lock to top their ticket.

“There is someone now leading the pack who could destroy the party and lose an election that should be ours,” said former Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman.

And now it is time to cue the Don McLean:

I was a lonely teenage broncin’ buck
With a pink carnation and a pick up truck
But I knew that I was out of luck
The day the music died

Under the circumstances, it seems strangely appropriate that Don McLean was recently charged with “domestic violence assault, domestic violence terrorizing, domestic violence criminal threatening, criminal restraint, criminal mischief and obstructing the report of a crime.”

And the kids don’t want to see his act?

Yes, seems right.

The Clinton Campaign can only die by suicide

Bernie Sanders’ campaign has been nothing short of amazing. Whatever else happens, it has forced Clinton to the left, activated a new generation of activists, given a boost of power to progressive democrats in the senate and congress, and shown that this is not 1972 anymore, and a progressive candidate for president is perfectly viable. However, the results of the past few primaries show that a Clinton victory in the primaries is by far the most likely outcome.
The Clinton campaign’s recourse to dirty campaigning and tricks that border the illegal (http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2016/03/01/bill-clinton-massachusetts-voting-laws/) does not seem consistent with the state of the campaign. I see it as an anachronism: voters today do not take kindly to these kinds of shenaninagans, but the Clinton machine seems stuck in a time before the internet.

I think the way in which Clinton can lose is through panic and overreach: if they get too negative against Sanders, or over-do their dirty, insidery, bullshit, this may turn voters off. If Sanders keeps the heat on Clinton, he may get her campaign to panic sufficiently to produce this result.

The Hillary train is picking up speed

With her seven wins tonight, Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Bernie Sanders with regards to the delegate count. As of right now, Clinton has 984 confirmed delegates, while Sanders has 347. 172 delegates are uncommitted. Two more primaries will occur this coming Saturday, Michigan, where Hillary has a 19 point lead, (Combined polls), and Mississippi, where the one poll I’ve seen, has Hillary up 34% On March 15th, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio hold primaries, and Hillary currently leads in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Hillary is well on her way to getting the nomination. It’s not about endorsements, not about speeches, not about big crowds, it’s about votes, delegates and who can beat Donald Trump. In the end, Hillary Clinton, with her experience, and her leadership, can take down Trump and win. The train is picking up steam!!

Your Turn

The polls begin closing soon, and I’m tired of making predictions. Why don’t you make some?

The Lie of John Kerry: Malaysian Flight MH-17 and US Intelligence

By repeating the same question over and over, the Dutch minister responsible for the “independent” investigation by the Dutch Safety Board acknowledged today: “The DSB did not have available the primary radar data from the United States to draw its conclusions in the report.”

As I already reported, the corrupt regime of Poroshenko and its disfunctional gang operating as the intelligence service SBU have refused to handover the radar data from both civilian and military installations. Their simple claim: radar was in maintenance, was turned off or simply the recordings were not kept.

The DSB and Dutch government of Mark Rutte refused to support a request to Russia for their video recording of primary data the moment Malaysian airliner flight MH-17 was shot down. The code of ICAO enforces nations to cooperate in the investigation of aircraft disasters and must supply the primary radar data.

Mark Rutte and his cabinet of ministers from the conservative Peoples Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).

Recently, the Dutch media have been offering space for Russiaphobes and the “citizens” journalism Bellingcat from the UK.

Dutch Minister van der Steur and FM Bert Koenders written answers to questions from parliament

Question 12
Are you aware that Victoria Nuland (deputy minister of the U.S. Government) on December 17th 2014 reportedly said:

    «Andrei, first to your point with regard to U.S. intelligence at the time of the Malaysian airliner’s tragic shoot down, first, just to say to you that – just to remind you that Secretary Kerry on I believe it was July 21st, it was the Saturday after the shoot down, gave a very detailed discussion of what we knew from our own assets, including providing considerable detail with regard to the trajectory of the firing (…). And he made clear at that time that we believed it was shot down by a Buk missile from separatist-held territory. We stand by that. We have given all of our information, including our classified information, to the Dutch, who are the investigators [and to] ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization. So any efforts to say that we have not are also untrue. There will be, I believe, in the context of the Dutch case, when they roll it out – they are likely to ask us to declassify some of that, and I think we will be able to help in that regard.» ?

Answer 12
According to the website of the State Department, ms Nuland did give this reply to a question from a Russian journalist.

These were remarks made by neocon deputy secretary Nuland before the American Enterprise Institute!

ASSISTANT SECRETARY NULAND: And to ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization. So any efforts to say that we have not are also untrue. There will be, I believe, in the context of the Dutch case, when they roll it out – they are likely to ask us to declassify some of that, and I think we will be able to help in that regard.

But the best declassified set of information from U.S. assets is still contained in what Secretary Kerry said that day. It is — I believe it was the Saturday the 21st, but I don’t have the dates exactly in my head. We have also been very clear publicly and privately with the Russian Federation with regard to what we know.

I think the question is whether Russia has shared all of its information also with the Dutch and with ICAO. And we’ve encouraged both the Dutch and ICAO to seek information from Russia, because there’s been a lot of funky theories, let’s put it that way, coming out of Russian propaganda.

Now, on your second point. I completely reject your assertion that we seek to hurt the Russian people. On the contrary, we have sought for 20, 25 years to see that Russian people live in a more prosperous, more democratic, more open, more peaceful country. That is what I have personally committed my diplomatic career to over all these years. That’s what we have committed some 20 billion dollars in U.S. assistance to the Russian Federation over these 20 years too.

Our concern though is that it is the choices that the Russian leadership that is making that are now taking Russia back to a place of isolation, to a place where it is closed off, where its people are closed off, not just from clean, democratic, open information by the Kremlin’s propaganda campaign but also from their access to Europe, their access to markets, their access to that opportunity to live in a more open society.

Hillary Clinton: MH17 ‘Probably Had to Be’ Work of Russian Insurgents | Charlie Rose – July 17, 2014 |

World governments have responded with shock, sadness and anger at the incident. Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has said if the plane was indeed shot down by a surface-to-air missile as believed by US intelligence agencies, then “the equipment had to have come from Russia”. She called for the EU to step up their sanctions against Russia and not “stand idly by.”

Continued below the fold …

Interview With George Stephanopoulos of ABC’s This Week

Interview
John Kerry
Secretary of State
Washington, DC
July 20, 2014

QUESTION: I want to move on to the situation in Ukraine. Our embassy in Kyiv has laid out a string of evidence tying the shoot-down to Russia. In your view, is Russia responsible for these deaths?

SECRETARY KERRY: Well, the question of responsibility is going to be adjudicated, obviously, in an investigation, providing we can get that full and fair investigation. But there are an enormous array of facts that point at Russia’s support for and involvement in this effort. Russia – there are – I mean, some of the separatist leaders, George, are Russian. Russia has armed the separatists. Russia has supported the separatists. Russia has trained the separatists. Russia continues to refuse to call publicly for the separatists to engage in behavior that would lend itself to a resolution of this issue. And the fact is that only a few weeks ago, a convoy of 150 vehicles of artillery, armored personnel carriers, multiple rocket launchers, tanks crossed over from Russia into this area, and these items were all turned over to the separatists.

We track – we, ourselves, tracked the imagery of the launch of this surface-to-air missile, of the disappearance of the aircraft from the radar at that time. We know that this comports with an SA-11 system because it hit an aircraft at the altitude of 33,000 feet. We know to a fact that the separatists bragged on the social media immediately afterwards about the shoot-down, and then later, when one of the leaders of the social – of the movement who – Igor Strelkov, who’s the self-proclaimed defense minister of the People’s Republic of Donetsk, he posted a social media bragging about the takedown of a military transport, and when it turned out to be civilian, he then quickly removed it from the social media. Now, drunken separatists are stacking bodies into the back of trucks, removing materials from the site. On Friday, we had 75 minutes of access to the site; on Saturday, three hours of access. This is an insult to everybody.

QUESTION: So given all that, Mr. Secretary —

SECRETARY KERRY: This is a moment of truth for – it’s really a moment of truth for Russia to step up and be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

QUESTION: So given all that, what exactly should President Putin do right now?

SECRETARY KERRY: President Putin should publicly call on the separatists. He should engage in a public support for the ceasefire. He should engage with the separatists directly in order to release the hostages that they’ve taken, and he should encourage them immediately to take part in a political process that can bring peace to the region. He needs to stop arming them. He could help prevent people crossing the border. He could stop the supplies from coming in. He could engage in the kind of constructive effort that Russia engaged in with us in order to remove 100 percent of the declared chemical weapons from Syria. He could do those things.

QUESTION: There’s no indication, yet, Mr. Secretary —

SECRETARY KERRY: All of those things.

QUESTION: — that he’s prepared to do that. So if he doesn’t, what’s going to be the United States’ response, and do you believe Europe is now prepared to go along with greater sanctions?

SECRETARY KERRY: Well, we hope Europe will be obviously. We think this is a wakeup call for countries in Europe. President Obama, however, took the lead and put additional sanctions in place on energy, on arms manufacturing companies, and on banking. And those are the toughest sanctions that have been put in place to date. He did that the day before this incident took place, and he is absolutely prepared to consider further, but we need to consult with our allies in Europe. And equally importantly, we’d like to take a stab at seeing if we can find a way for Russia to join in taking actions that actually back up the words that we’ve been hearing.

Explanation of Vote by Ambassador Samantha Power, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, after a Vote on Security Council Resolution 2166 on the Downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 in Ukraine

[This ia a cached version of webpage -WayBackMachine-  as original has been scrubbed? – Oui]{

Samantha Power
U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations
New York, NY
July 21, 2014

AS DELIVERED

Today’s resolution calls for a full, thorough and independent investigation into the horrific downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. When 298 civilians are killed, we agree that we must stop at nothing to determine who is responsible and bring them to justice.

As we take this step, we are joined by the Dutch and Australian ministers, whose countries suffered an immense and heart-wrenching loss on Thursday – one they are still grappling with, together with nine other countries from where the victims came. We extend our deepest condolences to those countries, the families of victims they represent, and all of the people who lost loved ones on that plane. Your presence here today, along with the dozens of other countries whose representatives will speak, gives even greater urgency to our calls for the dignified return of the victims and our pursuit of truth and justice.

As we reflect on the immeasurable loss suffered by these families around the world, we are not only outraged at the attack itself; we are horrified and enraged by what has happened since – by the clear intention of some to obstruct an investigation into how the passengers and crew died.

Even after adopting this resolution, it is worth asking: If there really is consensus that this crime merits an immediate and impartial investigation, why did we still feel the need to meet today in order to demand one?

We came together because not everyone has been supporting a real investigation into this crime. If they were, international experts would have had unimpeded access to the crime scene. And all of the wreckage would have been left where it had fallen.

That has not happened. Instead, armed thugs have walked around the site, with little regard for where they step. We have literally heard the sound of debris – all of it evidence that needs to be carefully preserved – crunching beneath their feet. We have seen separatists moving around human remains, and carting away evidence from the site.

All around the world this weekend, people of all cultures and faiths had similar reactions to seeing the footage of the separatists damaging the site: “Stop! Those are people. Those are people’s lives,” we all said. The passengers aboard Malaysian Airline Flight 17 had nothing to do with the conflict in eastern Ukraine: they were families heading on vacation, students returning home from abroad, researchers trying to eradicate a deadly disease. Those who were killed deserve to be treated with dignity, and their families are crying out – as we heard – for closure.

We condemn the actions of the separatists who control the site. Indeed, almost everyone has condemned this grotesque behavior.

But there is one party from which we have heard too little condemnation: and that is Russia.

Russia has been outspoken on other matters. Russian officials have publicly insinuated that Ukraine was behind the crash. On Friday, Russia blamed Ukrainian air traffic controllers for this attack rather than condemning the criminals who shot down the plane. Since then, Russia has begun to blame Ukraine for the attack itself, though the missile came from separatist territory that Russia knows full well Ukraine has not yet reclaimed.

But if Russia genuinely believed that Ukraine was involved in the shoot-down of Flight17, surely President Putin would have told the separatists – many of whose leaders are from Russia – to guard the evidence at all costs, to maintain a forensically-pure, hermetically-sealed crime scene.

We welcome Russia’s support for today’s resolution. But no resolution would have been necessary had Russia used its leverage with the separatists on Thursday, getting them to lay down their arms and leave the site to international experts. Or on Friday. Or on Saturday. Or even yesterday.

It turns out that only this morning – coincidentally, the very morning this Security Council was meeting to discuss the investigation – did President Putin finally issue a public call to ensure the security of international experts. However – and this is critically important – President Putin still did not direct his call to the separatists who have threatened those experts, and over whom he has enormous influence.

President Poroshenko, by contrast, has consistently done everything within his power since the crash to allow capable investigators full and unfettered access to the crime scene. He has been willing to involve ICAO, the Netherlands, and other international players – hailing their independence.

Russia’s muteness over the dark days between Thursday and today sent a message to the illegal armed groups it supports: We have your backs. This is the message Russia has sent by providing separatists with heavy weapons, by never publicly calling on them to lay down those weapons, and by massing thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border.

Today, we have taken a step toward combating impunity. The resolution passed provides clear directions to safeguard and uncover the facts–however inconvenient those facts may prove to be.

We have adopted a resolution today. But we are not naïve: if Russia is not part of the solution, it will continue to be part of the problem. For the past six months, Russia has seized Ukrainian territory and ignored the repeated requests of the international community to de-escalate – all in an effort to preserve influence in Ukraine, a country that has long made clear its desire to maintain constructive ties with Moscow.

Russia must recognize that no move on the geopolitical chessboard – no zero-sum game with the West – can offset the pain being felt by the passengers’ families worldwide, or the pain that Ukrainians are experiencing daily as a result of this needless conflict.

As we meet, we are seeing initial signs of the separatists allowing greater access to the crash site. Today, three Dutch investigators have accessed the site. The separatists are attempting to hold this up as proof of their openness and good faith. But let’s be clear, this is an extremely complex and time-sensitive crime scene. In that context, a spigot approach – letting in a few investigators here, a few more there – simply will not cut it. Access must be immediate and it must be full. Period. A spigot or stage-managed approach is a form of obstruction.

Russia can help change this. Russia can unequivocally condemn the separatists’ inhumane treatment of the bodies at the site and use its influence to ensure they stop tampering with evidence. Russia can demand the separatists immediately adopt a ceasefire in the area around the crash site, as Ukraine has done. Russia can press the illegal groups to sit down with President Poroshenko, who has proposed a serious and reasonable peace plan. And instead of continuing to provide weapons to the separatists, Russia could take back all of the surface-to-air missiles, tanks, and other heavy weaponry that it has delivered to them.

These would not only be important steps toward achieving accountability and achieving justice for the victims. It would constitute a long overdue sign that Russia is willing to take steps to end this deadly crisis. Thank you.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admits the statements about moving bodies, theft of valuables and reckless movement of wreckage partsof downed MH-17 were FALSE!

Mark, Don’t Ever Complain Again! [Rutte]

Pure lies and propaganda by Secretary Kerry, see my diaries after the Malaysian MH-17 disaster and the recovery mission by locals, emergency units in a war-stricken area and the arrival of Malaysian investigators as the Dutch moved slowly through the official channels in Kiev [and Washingto DC] before their arrival and almost immediate break-up leaving the area.
US and Dutch Cover-up of MH-17 Ukraine Crash Evidence | Oct. 29, 2014 |
Dutch PM Rutte Abruptly Calls-off MH-17 Recovery Mission | Aug. 8, 2014 |
Shrapnel Damage of Cockpit MH-17 Devastating | July 23, 2014 |
NSC Building Circumstantial Case Pointing Fingers | July 20, 2014 |

A Look Back At SC Before ST

In my prior diary, I got near enough to the correct new voter number that Sanders needed in SC — 220,000 — and that it would be a difficult task to accomplish that, but the numbers and reasoning I used to get there were less than stellar and that led me to seriously underestimate the difficulty of the task which should have been labeled impossible.  So, I get no analytical brownie points on this one.  However, those who like to engage in analyzing all sorts of things also enjoy analyzing what tripped them up and why.  (An inclination that is especially lacking in politicians, banksters, etc. — and that’s when they actually admit they made a mistake which is rare.)

The first thing I failed to note was that the ’04 SC primary was semi-new.  The SC DEM party held caucuses in 1996 and 2000 and primaries from 1980 to 1992.  Second the political parties and not the state of SC ran and paid for their primaries and caucuses.  That was changed in 2007 by the state legislature (which also had to override the Appalachian trail hiker’s veto.  Now the state pays but the parties still run the primaries.  In 2012 the SC DEM party magnanimously skipped a primary to save the state money.  Thus, while a primary/caucus voter base could be identified from the 2004 numbers in IA and NH, it was flawed in SC because the tradition wasn’t well established.

The SC primary base appears to be approximately 320,000 and not the 290,000 that I used from the ’04 primary.  The shortfall was, if not exclusively, primarily among AAs.  Had that “base” shown up in ’04, it wouldn’t have changed the outcome.  Edwards would still have won.  But after his showing in NH, it seemed reasonable to project that he couldn’t go the distance, and therefore, the establishment (and SC AA) preference, Kerry, would secure the nomination.

The second major problem with my projections was that I neglected to find the ’08 SC breakdown by ethnicity.  Here they are:

Turnout: 530 thousand
AA T/O: 307 thousand (58%)
Other: T/O: 223 thousand (32%)

A 60:40 AA:white Democratic party voters is a reasonably accurate reflection of the DEM party population in SC.  (The SC SOS doesn’t provide a statewide breakdown of registrations by party much less a breakdown by ethnicity.  The SOS does report that registration for voting age population (VAP) is 75%.  Back of the envelope calculations suggest that its closer to 80% for whites and closer to 70% for AAs (but the SCOTUS doesn’t care).  That estimate conforms with stats on general election turnout by party and ethnicity with white DEMs punching above their weight and AAs DEMs punching below theirs.  Even with the phenomenal ’08 turnout, AAs were still slightly underrepresented.

Of more relevance to this diary is the breakdown of those ’08 votes:

AA: Obama 193 thousand; Clinton 107 thousand; Edwards 6 thousand
Other: Obama 97 thousand; Clinton 34 thousand; Edwards 82 thousand

In 2016 AAs participated at close to or slightly above their proportion in the SC DEM party (about time IMHO).

Turnout: 367 thousand (69% of ’08 T/O)
AA: 227 thousand (74% of ’08 T/O)
Other:  139 thousand (62% of ’08 T/O)

That reduction from ’08 T/O is less than in IA, more than in NH and similar to NV (71%).*  A difference from ’08 is that while the establishment had its thumb on the scale for Clinton, the DNC under Howard Dean didn’t play favorites.  And there were three leading candidates that were pushing for increased voter participation.  Only Obama did much better on that than the other two.  Clinton undoubtedly excited many women, but Obama excited a broader demographic of first time primary voters (not to be confused with newly eligible voters).  13% of ’16 SC primary voters were new.  A much smaller percentage than in IA but similar to the 16% in NH.

Now the breakdown of the ’16 SC voters:

AA: Clinton 195 thousand; Sanders 29 thousand
Other: Clinton 76 thousand; Sanders 67 thousand

(Sanders did get 63% of the new voters, but there weren’t many of them.)

Clinton obtained 66% of the combined number of AA votes for Obama and Clinton in ’08.  On other than AA, she garnered 56% of her and Obama’s combined votes in ’08.

Three takeaways from this.  The DEM Party machine in SC did deliver for Clinton in ’08.  It just got overwhelmed by the late stage breakaways that felt more affinity with Obama plus the new AA voters that felt the same.  Second, Obama was more popular with non-AA voters in SC than Clinton was in either ’08 or ’16.  As in IA and NH, Clinton and the machines contributed very little to the new voter pool.

Overall SC was a mix of the IA and NH results.  Massive Clinton advantage with the DEM primary base in IA and SC.  Low new voter participation as in NH.  (A note about NH — the DEM primary base to VAP is much higher than it is in IA and SC.  So, it’s entirely reasonable not to project large numbers of new voters in DEM NH primaries.)

What I did get right:

The significant increase in the ’08 voter participation in SC would disappear in ’16.  That Sanders needed 220,000 new voters.

What was wrong:

Clinton’s second place with 27% in SC ’08 was very different from her third place with 29% IA ’08.  Had no idea that 76% of her ’08 votes came from AAs.  That should have predicted that she would do at least as well with non-first time voters in SC as she did in IA which was 78%.

The SC primary voter base.  320 thousand.  Even with near four times the DEM VAP of NH, new voters would be difficult to obtain.  And those that did materialize would break even less in favor of Sanders than they had in NH.

Thus, a projection of 78% of the SC base vote wasn’t conservative and would have meant that she was starting with 256 thousand votes and could be expected to add a small number of first time voters.  At best, Sanders began with a paltry 74 thousand of the base vote.  

Actual: Clinton 254 thousand base plus 18 thousand new.  Nothing short of a never before seen tidal wave gave Sanders a chance in SC and the equation is probably not that much different in states with a powerful DEM base machine.

If these trends continue, it bodes well for Clinton winning the nomination but is an ill wind for her to win the general election.  She is not capturing Obama’s so-called coalition, regardless of racial identity.  Hope is an easier sell than fear.  

Should Obama or Trump Replace Scalia?

How do you think this will go?

President Obama is to confer in the Oval Office on Tuesday with Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican majority leader, and Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the Republican chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, about filling the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. If everyone maintains previously stated positions, it might be a very short meeting.

My advice? He might want to bring this up:

One aide to a vulnerable Senate Republican, who requested anonymity, jokingly suggested that there might be another, very different source of pressure as early as Tuesday night. “I’m not sure we want to be in the business of telling voters that we’d rather risk having Donald Trump nominate the next Supreme Court justice,” he said.

Will every Republican senator promise not to vote for a Klansman (or Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) should President Trump nominate one for the Supreme Court?

It would be irresponsible not to get people on the record on this, would it not?

Trump will be Throttled like a Pinata

For those worried about a Trump presidency, how much risk can there be when Latinos are buying pinatas?

http://www.koat.com/news/donald-trump-el-chapo-piatas-a-popular-item-in-nm/38263030

Clearly he has an appeal among Republican voters. I don’t believe he’s limited to 35% of their voters as Rubio or Cruz would ask us to believe. I think a good solid 75% or more (of Republicans) will get behind him. But a significant contingent will not. Movement conservatives may sit it out or launch an alternative, and suburban and Wall Street voters may hold their nose and vote for him or stay home or perhaps maybe even pull the lever for Hillary.

So the question becomes whether Trump could appeal to enough Independents and enough disheartened Democrats might stay home to give Trump a path to narrow victory. For what it’s worth, I find the notion that Sanders voters are going to migrate to Trump ludicrous. I could see some not bothering to vote. But voting for someone that racist and misogynistic seems beyond the pale.

My view is what’s most likely is a Clinton landslide. Independents will not be attracted to his hateful rantings. Even if he tries to tack left, what he’s said is on the record and the commercials just write themselves. Latinos will break sharply against him. The existence of Trump pinatas confirms that impression. Women will overwhelmingly vote against him too. Our country has issues but we’re not the kind of place where someone like Trump can carry a national election.