In light of Martin’s Trump-Cruz article today, following are my thoughts on the Republican convention.
Unless Trump shows up with 1237 delegates, we’ll witness the first truly open floor fight in more than 40 years. Fearing electoral disaster, particularly down ticket, party insiders are going to want to find someone other than the Donald. We see that already. But that means rejecting the guy who got the most votes when for over 40 years voters have been conditioned to think their primary and caucus opinions mean something.
Let’s say the party is willing to cast Trump aside and argue he didn’t lock down 1237 so all bets are off. Their folks are already making that argument. Do they then turn to the only other candidate who made any kind of decent showing outside his home state, Ted Cruz? As Martin asked, what does Cruz get them that Trump doesn’t and is it worth pissing off 35% (or so) of Republicans to get it?
Cruz is a movement conservative, a true believer; not a loose cannon like Trump. But his positions are far more conservative than any nominee we’ve seen in any of our lifetimes. He makes even Goldwater look like some kumbaya-singing hippie. Plus Cruz exudes smarm. One look at the guy and most folks want to run the other way. (Heck, even those inside the tent almost to a man/woman can’t stand the guy.) With Cruz, the Republicans probably take a shellacking (to use Obama’s 2010 turn of phrase) but maybe (maybe!) they’ll do better in down-ticket races because their core voters show up. This assumes Trump voters don’t sit it out and Cruz’ presence on the ballot doesn’t drive enormous Democratic turnout.
Under this scenario, Republicans might prefer it if Trump ran as a third party candidate because, even though they’d be screwed at the presidential level, they’re screwed anyway and at least all their voters would show up. Most of the angry ones voting for Trump would still vote for the people with “R”s next to their names further down the page.
Of course there are many insiders already arguing that the party should just choose someone else entirely. According to the rules set up by party insiders, they can only nominate someone who has won at least eight states. This was their attempt to tilt the deck in favor of Jeb. It blew up on them because now only Trump and Cruz qualify.
But, hey, they can change the rules. It’s their rules, right? Well . . . to echo what others have said, they might want to think carefully. Doing so after the fact really smacks of subverting the will of the people — plus Trump and Cruz voters are the very ones most likely to go ape-shit. These are folks who already believe party insiders have been subverting the will of the people. Hard to see how this happens without tearing the party to shreds — their rank-and-file having voted overwhelmingly for either Trump or Cruz, and the insiders then rejecting both in favor of someone more to their liking.
Were they to go that route, is there a nominee who could mollify anger and get everyone “in?” Kasich ran and won only his home state plus he expanded Obamacare — so no. Rubio performed even worse, losing his home state badly, plus he committed the worst possible offense if you’re a Republican, looking like a squish — so no. Jeb’s showing was pathetic plus he’s a Bush — so double no. Walker dropped out almost before we began — no. They could turn to someone who didn’t run at all but who? Paul Ryan, the boy wonder, Winston Wolf himself? Maybe with the PR of four years ago that might have worked but Ryan in 2016 has already lost credibility with the far right. One quick view of freeper comments inspired by discussions of him as nominee makes that abundantly clear. Mitt Romney? Mr. Can’t-Disclose-My-Tax-Returns, House-Garage-Elevator, Corporate-Raider, 47%ers, Self-Deportation, Passed-the-Original-Obamacare? Uhm — no. They’d be better off digging up Reagan’s cadaver.
Perhaps like John McCain pulling a bunny out of his hat, they’d find the next Sarah Palin. Not Caribou Barbie herself because she’s way past her stink-by date even among Republicans. Her name at the top of the ticket would be worse than Trump’s. But maybe a Jeff Flake or a Joni Ernst.
Such folks are way outside the political mainstream but maybe (maybe!) it prevents total party meltdown. No matter how they slice it, it’s hard to see a path to the presidency. My guess is any movement to anoint someone other than Trump will be focused on preventing a debacle in the House and Senate and it state-level races. But when it’s all gamed out, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the party decides their best option is to just get on board the Trump Express and hope for a less than total-clusterfuck outcome.