Right-wing polling of Florida paints the bleakest of pictures for Donald Trump in November, and it’s probably accurate, at least for now. Naturally, the candidates have to have their conventions, pick their running mates, run the gauntlet of a campaign that will last for about 120 days, and see what they can do by why of inspiring organizers to get out in the field to work for them. Things will happen both here at home and in the wider world that could change how the public views their choices.
But…
Donald Trump currently doesn’t stand a chance in Florida and it’s just as likely to get worse for him than it is to get better.
A couple of things are really working against Trump. The first is that Hillary Clinton already has net negative numbers in the Sunshine State, and yet she’s still absolutely crushing him. It’s pretty unlikely that Trump can drive her negatives a whole lot higher, so he’s got to do something first and foremost with his gonorrhea-like popularity with key Florida voting blocs.
The second thing is that she’s disciplined and he’s not. When you combine this with the comparative immutability of her approve/disapprove numbers, it’s clear that Trump is both more likely to make mistakes and more likely to pay a substantial price for them.
Now, it’s true that Trump could still win without Florida, but that would require an acrobatic feat like somehow winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. That would give him the near-bare minimum of 271 Electoral College votes.
And, let’s face it, some of the reasons that Trump is doing so poorly in Florida would also screw him in other states. His abysmal rating with Latinos would certainly hamper his ability to win in Colorado, and probably Virginia as well. His crap numbers with suburban women would cause big problems not only in Virginia, but also in Ohio. And I just think New Hampshire is a lost cause for him even if he somehow manages to find some other winning combination.
I know that you can find contrary polling (Rasmussen, for example) and that general election polls don’t mean very much this far out, but this isn’t some left-wing polling outfit.
Whether it’s Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, the Republican presidential nominee looks like a sure loser to Hillary Clinton in Florida because of the Republicans’ lack of popularity with crucial voting blocs in the state, according to a poll conducted last week by the business lobby Associated Industries of Florida.
Clinton would wallop Trump by 49-36 percent if the election were held today and she’d best Cruz 48-39 percent, according to the poll of 604 likely Florida voters…
…One of the most astounding — and depressing — results for Republicans like Tyson was the percentage of likely Hispanic Florida voters who have a negative impression of Trump: 87 percent. Only 10 percent viewed him favorably.
“No, that’s not a typo,” [Ryan] Tyson wrote in the memo.
If we give Trump slightly more than half the undecideds in that poll, it still translates to a 55%-45% victory for Clinton. But my money isn’t on Trump performing at par with Clinton during this campaign. There’s too much dirt on him, too many Republicans on the record bad-mouthing him, and he’s too much of a narcissist and a political novice to go toe-to-toe over four months with a consummate professional whose party is much more united (Sanders notwithstanding) than the Republicans.
Remember, too, that Florida’s popular vote tends to come pretty close to the national popular vote.
FLORIDA
2012- Obama 49.9%, Romney 49.1%
2008- Obama 51.0% McCain 48.2%
2004- Kerry 47.1%, Bush 52.1%
2000 -Gore 48.8%, Bush 48.8%
NATIONAL
2012- Obama 51.0%, Romney 47.1%
2008- Obama 52.9% McCain 45..6
2004- Kerry 48.3%, Bush 50.7%
2000 -Gore 48.4%, Bush 47.9%
As you can see, though, the historic trend is for Florida to be slightly more Republican than the nation at large, so this is even worse news for Trump.
About the most positive thing I can offer The Donald is the prospect that polls like this aren’t intended to be accurate but are aimed at influencing the electorate in the remaining primaries by making him look like a dead duck in the general.
He better hope that that is what we’re dealing with here, but I have a word of caution about believing it.
The AIF poll is the second in two weeks that had Trump in alarmingly negative territory with Hispanic voters. A poll conducted by Dario Moreno, a Florida International University political scientist, found 84 percent of Hispanics viewed Trump negatively.
Factoring in all potential voters, the AIF poll found just 33 percent of those surveyed view Trump favorably, while 62 percent view him unfavorably, for a net favorability of -29 percent. Cruz is in even worse shape, with a net favorability of -30 percent, with 28 percent holding a favorable view and 58 percent an unfavorable impression.
Compared to the Republican candidates, Clinton’s -6 favorability index (46-52 percent) looks enviable.
In other words, the results here have been replicated, and recently…and by a more independent pollster.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see numbers like this. The Republican crack-up has been noticed, and it’s going to have some real consequences.
