I don’t want to beat the dead horse of HRC’s relationship with the coal and Rust belt, but Guardian had an interesting article on Trump and Appalachia. They reproduced a map showing the region as it crosses from the South in to upstate NY.
In their words-
Of the 420 counties seen as sharing a culture that transcends state lines, Trump won all but 16 , including a sweep of western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and the western uplands of Virginia with potentially profound ramifications for the general election.
We know Hillary couldn’t win Michigan.
In Ohio, the top two Republicans (Kasich and Trump), beat Hillary and Sanders by 500,000 votes in the Primary.
In the Penn primary, head to head, Hillary beat Trump by just 20,000 votes. And that was with multiple GOP candidates on the ballot.
Yes, the General is different, but these totals do give us hints.
The assumptions, including Booman’s, is that HRC will carry all the Obama states and add a few more. I really wonder if that is correct. So the question, heretical as it seems, can Hillary win the general without Penn and Ohio? Also probably Va and maybe Mich? Do the Electoral numbers add up?