As all political junkies know, the US president is elected not directly by a citizen vote but by the Electoral College – an archaic original compromise of the Founding Fathers and States. (Yes, we will have a powerful President, but the States will be influential in its election.) There were four presidential elections when the popular vote was different from the elected president: 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000. Besides, the first few elections were confused by the issue of Vice-Presidency (especially in 1796 and 1800), leading to the more specific 12th Amendment.
The most bizarre elections were in 1824 and 1876, by far. They were also influential or highly educative. If you thought that the 2000 election was a steal…
Consider the 1876 election
The Reconstruction era after the Civil War was coming to the end, with rising Southern backlash against weighty participation of blacks, carpetbaggers and scalawags. The Republican governments in the South were widely considered corrupt, and with some reasons. Though nothing could match the Democratic corruption machine in New York City.
The Democratic candidate in 1876 was Samuel J. Tilden, prominent for reigning certain order in New York. His main opponent was a moderate Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, representing fading enthusiasm for the Reconstruction, improvement in race equality. Tilden needed to carry a few Northern states, and he achieved his targets: New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Connecticut. It looked like he won the Presidency, breaking the Republican rule of 16 years. But voting results in three Southern States – South Carolina, Louisiana and Florida – were challenged. Additionally, one Oregon elector was questioned. Hayes needed all contested votes to win the Electoral College, 185-184. And guess what…
To resolve the situation, a 15-member Electoral Commission was formed: 5 members from each the (pro-Republican) Senate, the (pro-Democrat) House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court. In all, the Commission had 7 Republican, 7 Democrats, and Justice David Davis was neutral. But he got elected to the Senate by Illinois – so he resigned from the Supreme Court and the Electoral Commission. The replacement could only be a Republican Justice. And for every contested state, the electoral votes were awarded to Hayes by the 8-7 partisan vote.
Behind the scenes, the Compromise of 1877 deal is strongly suspected. In return for the presidency, the Republicans agreed to withdraw Federal troops from the former Confederate states and end the Reconstruction, allowing all segregation and disfranchisement in the South.
The 1824 election
This early election hanged on a resolution of the unique case when no candidate got the majority of the electoral votes. The 12th Amendment prescribes an unearthly procedure:
If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote. The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most Electoral votes. Each Senator would cast one vote for Vice President. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.
The other election that came closest to this was 1860. That campaign consisted of two separate elections basically: between Lincoln and Douglas in the North, and between Breckinridge and Bell in the South. Lincoln swept the North without campaigning or winning anything in the South. 180 electoral votes (out of 303), 40% of the popular vote were enough for him.
By 1824, the Federalist party was dysfunctional for years already (except in high courts). The Democratic-Republican party was dominant, but breaking up. Their congressional caucus nominated William H. Crawford (despite a stroke in 1823), avoiding the already Federalist-ish (soon to be National Republican, and then Whig) leaders Henry Clay and John Quincy Adams. Those two were nominated anyway, and Henry Clay counted on the 12th Amendment and his authority as the House Speaker for success. To his agitation, however, Andrew Jackson entered as well – a populist hope of Western settlers and religious, anti-industrial sentiments, a hero of the 1812 War. His portrait is to be replaced soon on $20 bill.
The results of the 1824 election were:
Andrew Jackson – 99 e.v. (41.4%)
John Quincy Adams – 84 e.v. (30.9%)
William Crawford – 41 e.v. (11.2%)
Henry Clay – 37 e.v. (13.0%)
So Clay did not finish in the Top 3 even. But he used his influence to push Adams through the vote in the House, becoming the Secretary of State himself. This suspected Corrupt Bargain was not glorious to both men. The presidency of Quincy Adams is regarded as weak, and Clay was shadowed by it in his several later nominations and candidacies, never succeeding. Jackson founded the Democratic party and soundly won the 1828, 1832 elections.
What for 2016?
The 1824 scenario should be interesting today. With the two major candidates – Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – exciting more antipathy than support, there is a constitutional possibility to upset them both. A third candidate could gather just a few electoral votes, but if that prevents both Clinton and Trump to reach 270, he/she might win straightforwardly – with courtesy of the House of Representatives, of course. Bah!
Since the House is controlled by the Republicans, this is hardly a route for Sanders. But if establishment Republicans are serious about stopping Trump, what are they waiting for? State registration deadlines are approaching.
Yves Smith, June 1, 2016 at Politico – Why Some of the Smartest Progressives I Know Will Vote for Trump over Hillary
Even on Wall Street, a powerful Sanders contingent so hates what Clinton stands for–the status quo–they’ll pull the lever for almost anyone else.
The ratio of highly educated, “true progressives” at the pond appears to be much lower than it is at Naked Capitalism.
They are political junkies, not economists.
You write:
High intelligence has never been a majority marker, Marie, and appealing to those with high intelligence quotients has never been a majority maker. This is the flaw in the idea of democracy. It middles out, and middling intelligence is simply not intelligent enough to efficiently take care of real problems.
Churchill said :
So far? He has been proven correct.
Will there ever arise a form of government that is more efficient at solving certain kinds of problems without simultaneously creating even worse ones? I don’t know, but here we jolly well are now, aren’t we. Maybe Cybrocracy…rule by Artificial Intelligence…will do the trick, but I doubt it. I have a feeling that we are going to soon find out, and I think it will have a lot to do with thinning the herd.
Mercilessly.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
We have a not-so-smart but emotionally and physically very powerful Donald Trump competing against a very intelligent …at least in the governmental wonk categories…but emotionally blocked and physically somewhat challenged Hillary Clinton.
Which one most resembles the majority of the electorate?
Yup.
You’ve got it.
Watch.
Short of a truly awful scandal…or of course the always popular “unforeseen event”…the electorate will vote for the person they most resemble.
Reagan all over again.
Only more volatile.
And much, much sexier.
Watch.
AG
I want to add a little something to this post.
I think a Trump/HRC election may well hinge on whose hubris wins out.
The Hubris Sweepstakes.
Two giant egos in a hubris match. The fiercer the hubris, the greater the failure. In that competition i think that Trump wins…and thus loses…by a mile.
The question remains…who will achieve nemesis first?
Grand entertainment for the thoughtful…
AG
Your comment — High intelligence has never been a majority marker, Marie, and appealing to those with high intelligence quotients has never been a majority maker. — is a strawman because neither Yves nor I said anything about intelligence.
“Why Some of the Smartest Progressives I Know Will Vote for Trump over Hillary”
What does “smartest” mean to you?
Your “The ratio of highly educated, “true progressives” at the pond appears to be much lower than it is at Naked Capitalism.”
and
Yves’s
“The highly educated, high-income, finance-literate readers of my website…”
Both about “intelligence.”
My point was…and remains…that elections are not won by catering to the intelligent.
AG
Popular democracy may need to overcome some awkward evolutionary psychology of intelligence. Here is my own speculation:
If operative intelligence comes easily only to elites and (socially ignorant) geeks, dumbness of masses may mean primarily yearning for certain “full package” leadership. An appeal for universal intelligence would be outside of this evolved package.
You write: “this is the flaw in the idea of democracy. It middles out, and middling intelligence is simply not intelligent enough to efficiently take care of real problems.” True, but since we don’t require people to vote, we basically have a volunteer sample that is not necessarily representative of the population. What if quite a few intelligent people, which include many non-conformists, are not voting? Why are they not voting? Because they know it’s a rigged system, so why bother? I’m sure some smart legislators (and there are some) have contemplated this thought, and that is why voting may never be a requirement. Just my $.02.
Another thought to add to this mix is intelligence testing. It is true that intelligence testing has evidence of reliability and validity, but these tests are basically constructed by TPTB. Also, some forms of intelligence are not necessarily captured, because there is disagreement among experts and current theory is still under construction.
Interesting post.
Actually 1876, was not as much an election as an armed counter-revolution in which violent intimidation caused the creation of the “Solid South”. But for Northern state sell-outs of the civil rights of the newly freed slaves, the South would not have had “home rule” restored by Rutherford B. Hayes. Here are the sell-outs: New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Connecticut.
In 1824, the narrative of the corrupt bargain (in an age noted for corrupt bargains and shifting alliances) sowed the seeds of the Jacksonian demolition of the Federalists in 1828.
In 1860, the four-way split was was likely an accurate representation of the split in popular sentiment. Secession was assured as soon as Lincoln was known to be the winner. No waiting for inauguration for ramping up the conventions.
I’m not seeing that sort of a situation this year. Neither the Libertarians nor the Greens are on the ballots in enough states to be more than spoilers. And that in unpredictable states. So the real driver of this scenario is betting that the two major candidates create a situation in which the popular vote does not correspond to the electoral college vote (the 2000 situation). That becomes a matter for Congress only if the House makes it so — which you cannot discount with a Republican House; they likely will not be so compliant as the Democratic House was in 2000.
What if the Libertarian and Green Parties had ballot access in all states? (The LP claims to be working on that.)
Then they should put up Senate, Congressional, and Legislative candidates to broaden turnout. I don’t think they are there yet.
The republican party controlled the House in 2001
Here is the make-up for the Janurary 2001, when it would have mattered.
House 221 republicans 211 democrats and 2 independents
Bush/Cheney had the votes in the House, if it had gone there.
The Intercept — Hillary Clinton Super-Lobbyist Says “We’re Not Paid Enough,” Pans Obama Lobbying Reforms
Whoa!
Whoa is right — Democratic party elites are rarely so openly honest. But I’m sure that the Hillbots can excuse, rationalize, etc. even this.
I can imagine that lady in there writing our laws for us… Sheesh.
Within the club. Background and dirt — Washingtonian.
(Guess the first two didn’t open enough doors and checkbooks.)
Politico
Women, apparently, haven’t come as far as they brag about — far too many riding on the coattails of a man.
Er, three time loser…could it be her frankness?
More like a masculine sensibility — use them and then lose them.
Somehow I missed that part of feminism that women were supposed to aspire to all the male privileges including being disgusting and using people.
Your comments made me think of Lady Macbeth for some reason. IMHO, some ambitious women are misguided and thus imitate the negative masculine traits, thinking this is the best way to achieve their goals. They may even see certain positive feminine traits as a weakness. This scenario highlights some of the negative side effects of feminism since women can enter any professional field today and some exist in the higher echelons of power.
heh — Lady Macbeth – what a great role! Although I don’t see her as imitating stereotypical masculine traits at all. Ruthless ambition doesn’t seem to be sex specific. However, gender difference in how it’s actualized do exist (and may well be cultural and not innate). Women work more through husbands and children; so, Lady Mac was a lady.
The Chinese have some experience with powerful women. And in the modern West, successful female state leaders tend to be Iron Ladies. Thus, supposed motherly attention (rather than snootiness) of women in power still has to be shown historically, no?
This is fun
Looks like another DNC version of James O’Keefe and expecting a big payday when HRC is elected; then he can buy his own tux instead of renting them.