There are a couple of outliers, but the general consensus of the polls is that Donald Trump is going to get right around 33% of the vote in California. Maybe when all the undecideds are counted, he’ll do slightly better than that, but it’s still likely that when Election Day rolls around in November, Golden State Republicans will be looking at a party champion who is trailing by twenty points or more. It’s hard to find a reason to drag yourself to the polls under circumstances like that.
Now, maybe a Republican might get motivated to vote in the governor’s race, but there is no governor’s race there this year. And, perhaps a good Senate contest might interest a conservative voter, but the only two people on the ticket in November in the race to replace Barbara Boxer are Democrats: Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. And check this out:
A USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released this week found Harris leading Sanchez 47 percent to 22 percent. The survey also found that 64 percent of Republicans said they would not cast a ballot for either candidate in November.
Now, if there is no governor’s race and the presidential race is a foregone conclusion (and don’t forget that Californians will know how most of the country voted long before their own polls close) and 64% of Republicans have no intentions of casting a vote in the Senate race, then the only reason most California Republicans will have to show up at the polls is to cast a vote for their U.S. Representative and some state and local races.
Can you imagine the turnout challenge facing Republicans running for the House of Representatives this fall?
Democrats will at least have a Senate race to weigh in on, although I kind of doubt the polls will be close in that contest either. Still, the business community is pondering whether it might profit them to get behind the candidacy of Loretta Sanchez. Her own campaign is pitching her pro-business “Blue Dog” credentials.
Sanchez appears to be reciprocating the interest [of the business community]. In her [second place] victory speech after last week’s primary, she said she would “work with businesses, labor leaders, chambers of commerce, and workers to strengthen our economy.”
“She’s a social progressive, but she’s a Blue Dog Democrat that looks at fiscal programs to see if they are paid for,” said Luis Vizcaino, spokesman for Sanchez’s campaign. “And I think that appeals to many Californians, who want somebody aligned with their social views but at the same time is fiscally moderate.”
That has the president of the California Business Roundtable, Rob Lapsley, intrigued.
Lapsley said that he and many in the business community are still assessing the candidates and November’s expected turnout patterns to determine if getting involved makes sense.
But he called Sanchez’s campaign “viable” and praised her political brain trust — led by longtime California consultant Bill Carrick — as “top-notch.” What’s more, Lapsley indicated that business groups’ involvement in this year’s Senate race could be a test run for 2018, when California voters pick a successor to Gov. Jerry Brown.
California’s primary system awards the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. In a deeply blue state like California, which hasn’t elected a statewide GOP official in almost a decade, that could mean two Democrats could make the final ballot.
The Roll Call article I am citing notes all the obstacles in Sanchez’s way, including a lack of money. Personally, I think Kamala Harris will get a primetime gig at the Democratic National Convention and put any slim hope Sanchez has away.
So, turnout may be surprisingly light in California this year, but Democrats will have more enthusiasm and more reason to participate. A lot of people, including many in the Latino community, may be pretty jazzed to show up just to cast a vote against Trump.
It’s a recipe for a complete slaughter of downticket Republicans, including many who are not seen as vulnerable by anyone at this point. If the national Republicans are going to lose control of the House of Representatives, this may be the reason why.
The primary brought some pretty good results for both Congressional and Legislative seats. I’m expectant that we can get the crucial 2/3rds majorities back in the Legislative houses, and hopeful that we will do our part in getting back the House majority.
And if the Sanders voters turn out in November, they’ll help see to it that in the many Leg and House Districts where two Democrats will face off, the more progressive and economically populist Democrat will win.
Oh, and Harris is going to pound Sanchez. Kamala’s ideologies are better, and she’s miles better than Loretta as a politician.
Harris did a long interview with Chris Hayes and seemed very smart and reasonably progressive. Sánchez seems like a typical corrupt DNC tool and stiff and unlikable in terms of political skills.
To put it another way, Sánchez would probably be even worse than Feinstein, who is truly horrible, and definitely worse than Boxer, who’s quite progressive on some things, but whom I will never forgive for supporting Lieberman and Netanyahu. Kamala Harris strikes me as a bit more progressive than Boxer and far more intelligent.
I’m pretty sure Harris will win handily.
Interesting that Sanchez is touting herself as a “Blue Dog”. She was a member of the Blue Dog caucus, but never voted like one.
The business interests will, like anybody, get more of what they want by swallowing their distaste for a “lesser of two evils” situation and supporting the best candidates they can find. Hopefully they will hold out for their perfect candidate, descend into irrelevance, and lose their influence on government.
It’s hard to find a reason to drag yourself to the polls
Yes… except for the 10 propositions on the ballot already, with almost 3 weeks left in the filing deadline for more. Fun times.
Propositions will always will be a reason to vote in California, even if the top races are all but decided.
Raising the minimum wage to 15 is on the ballot.
End the death penalty is on the ballot.
Making pot legal is NOT yet on the ballot, but will almost certainly make it.
Those are all worth coming out for. Legalizing pot will certainly bring some new voters out.
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And not the voters that Issa wants.
California’s minimum wage will be raised to $15 in a deal passed by the Legislature and signed by the Governor a couple of months ago. A $15 min wage ballot measure had collected enough signatures to make the ballot, but with the State government’s response, the measure will be withdrawn and the issue will not be on November’s ballot.
Looks like there are 15 CA Republican House members with 5 or 6 in districts with less than 5% GOP gerrymandering edge. But a lot where the edge is 10% – those would be hard to flip.
The thing about CA (any state really) is that the rural areas are just as redneck as anywhere else.
oops – forgot the link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_delegations_from_California#Current_Repres
entatives
Yes but with the difference that a huge proportion of actual field workers are Chicanos. And while a lot are undocumented you have a lot of second and third generation Americans who spent at least some time in the fields before attending UC Merced and Riverside.
A solid voter registration and GOTV operation among the citizen relatives of farm workers all up and down the central valleys of California from Imperial to the wine grape workers in Napa could turn a lot of decades old red districts blue.
If I was a Republican in Kern County or the areas around Gilroy/Salinas or even the Upper Big Valley I would not be resting easy. Because in the end there are only so many votes among the actual farm owners that have run those areas for the last 150 years. A lot of whom have been absorbed by corporate farming anyway.
When I was a kid growing up in California in the 60’s at least half of Congressional Districts were safe for R’s. Including some really close to liberal enclaves like SF and West LA. But I don’t known how many are really safe today. Even in Orange County. Which is full of really conservative rich people who are none the less brown. Vietnamese, Iranian/Persians, South Asians. Are any of these communities going to open their hearts, minds and wallets for Trump or Republicans associated with him?
California ain’t the Cali of Nixon and Reagan. Not even SoCal.
CA isn’t gerrymandered. Districts are pretty honest here, with a lot of variation (as it should be). I’d like more, but I’d be pretty happy with a pickup of 6 seats here.
6 would be very nice.
No death penalty would be good, and 15.00 minimum wage by 2022 would be great.
And I want legal pot. I’m worried that it’s so late to getting on the ballot. I already warned them at work…once legal, I’m stoned.
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Booman – one factor you missed is the marijuana initiative. That should get a lot of democrats to turn out and I highly doubt an otherwise unmotivated republican voter would show up just to vote against marijuana. Plus, most of the Republicans I know are stoners.
By far the best place to contribute to taking back the the House of Representatives and further moving the legislature in a progressive direction.
And important given the environmental/economic challenges in California’s future.
The one thing California does not need is Blue Dog economics. You would hope they had learned their lesson, but even HRC is babbling on about balanced budgets when climate change is on the doorstep. Jeebus.
NY Mag article by Gabe Sherman: Why Trump Ousted Corey Lewandowski (it was the kids)
According to two sources briefed on the events, the meeting was a setup. Shortly after it began, the [three Trump] children peppered Lewandowski with questions, asking him to explain the campaign’s lack of infrastructure. “They went through the punch list. `Where are we with staffing? Where are we with getting the infrastructure built?'” one source explained. Their father grew visibly upset as he heard the list of failures. Finally, he turned to Lewandowski and said, “What’s your plan here?”
Lewandowski responded that he wanted to leak Trump’s vice-president pick.
And with that, Lewandowski was out. Trump has long viewed announcing his running mate at the GOP convention next month as a valuable card to play. He was shocked that Lewandowski didn’t have any other ideas. Shortly after the meeting, Lewandowski was escorted out of the building by Trump security.
What this will turn into, with other states to follow, is all the more necessity for a GOTV effort to slam dunk the down ballots. There’s alot of work to be done and we need majorities. No resting on laurels that votes won’t count because Rep will fail to turn out.
This one is relevant to the ongoing discussion on democratic VP. I figure I will post it rather then miss the link when that discussion comes around again.
Wall Street cash or Elizabeth Warren: Hillary’s choice
Total BS. The biggest “Wall Street” Dem donor is Soros, and he’s a big supporter of Warren. He’s not the only one, either. This is just somebody setting up to whine about “Wall Street” if Hillary picks somebody else (she has a fairly long list; supposedly about 9 are being vetted right now). There are a number of valid reasons not to pick Warren, the biggest being a serious danger to the chance of taking the Senate if the election isn’t a blowout.
Read the article.
They think Clinton will be able to work and get things like infrastructure done?
Oh really?
Seriously?
Phuck.outta.here.
Her ASK on infrastructure is very weak tea, anyway. $275B over FIVE yrs?????? Not even 1% of GDP, which is $16T.
Here’s the tres cool, CA SOS map of the primary results. Easy enough to see that in many counties, Sanchez doesn’t have a chance even if she holds onto her primary vote percentage and picks up all the GOP candidates vote percentage.