Joint Force 2035: Lasers, Biotech and Global Instability
WASHINGTON — The US military of 2035 will have to deal with the breakdown of global norms, the proliferation of dangerous technologies via the commercial sector, and hypersonic weaponry, according to a recent document issued by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Titled “Joint Operating Environment 2035” [pdf], the document seeks to lay out what the Pentagon will be facing in 20 years time in order to help guide how the department is spending its resources today.
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There is also an acknowledgement that defense technologies are going to be spun off from the commercial sector, and not vice versa – again, a theme Carter has brought up in almost every speech he has given as defense secretary.Just what those issues look like in 2035 versus now, however, is where the document’s authors begin to dig into the details. They identify six broad geopolitical challenges the Joint Force will have to deal with 20 years from now:
- Violent Ideological Competition: irreconcilable ideas communicated and promoted by identity networks through violence.
- Threatened US Territory and Sovereignty: encroachment, erosion, or disregard of US sovereignty and the freedom of its citizens from coercion.
- Antagonistic Geopolitical Balancing: increasingly ambitious adversaries maximizing their own influence while actively limiting US influence.
- Disrupted Global Commons: denial or compulsion in spaces and places available to all but owned by none.
- A Contest for Cyberspace: a struggle to define and credibly protect sovereignty in cyberspace.
- Shattered and Reordered Regions: states unable to cope with internal political fractures, environmental stressors, or deliberate external interference.
That, in turn, comes with a set of technological challenges. As Carter likes to remind audiences, the vast majority of technology now is developed in the private sector, but the Pentagon has often struggled to adapt it for military use. The authors of the report warn that the department will need to find an easier way of using that technology, because the commercial world will continue to lead development efforts.
The report also warns that the rise of non-state actors such as the Islamic State group – described in the report as “privatized violence” – will continue, as will the rapidity of those groups coming together. The spread of 3D-printing technologies and readily available commercial technology such as drones means those groups can be increasingly effective against a fully prepared military force.
All empires crumbled because they perceived themselves as “exceptional” while expanding territory for trade … it’s called colonialism with a flavor of fascism.
Wonder what was in Joint Force 2015: …. when it was issued in 1996. Other than Pentagon needs more bucks to buy more killing machines because enemies are just going to keep coming and coming.
Major assumption in the above is that 2035 will look just like 2016 except “identity network” will also have high tech weapons. Mass killings using an AK-47, suicide bomb belt, or lorry will be so passe. IOW — USA! will continue to lose the wars over the next twenty years. Another few trillion dollars down the Pentagon sinkhole.
Particularly like the acknowledgment that US sovereignty will remain dependent on getting them “over there” before they get us here. The report writers used lots of big words to say what an idiot like GWB said back in the early naughts using little words suitable for action movies.
Noah Schachtman tweet:
Trever Timm response tweet:
https:/www.rt.com/news/353126-campbell-nato-coup-turkey
We’re told here that citing RT is unacceptable because he viewed as a wing of Putin’s propaganda machine. So, in this instance, need a more reliable and credible source on the claim about Gen Campbell. If true, this should present a real problem for the USG.
(If Gulen isn’t a CIA asset, then he does have friends in high places of another USG agency/department.)
In this case, they’re simply quoting the Turkish newspaper. By all accounts, that newspaper is an apologist for the existing power structure. But then the same could be said of The New York Times.
There’s this:
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2016/07/26/us-general-campbell-the-likely-nbc-news-source-in-its-sca
ndalous-false-reporting-on-the-turkey-coup-attempt/
Campbell has put forward an alibi witness for his whereabouts on the day of the coup: Geraldo Rivera.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/07/25/turkish-newspaper-accuses-us-general-planning-failed-coup.ht
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My criticism about citing RT was somewhat in jest, but it was a suggestion to be careful here because Putin/Russia hate is high and RT is viewed as propaganda. Personally, I find that it’s at least as credible and reliable as most in the US and UK, but one does have to be selective and know the areas where all publications are too biased to accept. I tend to check for other sources if an RT article is sufficiently interesting to cite and then post from those sources. It minimizes the amount of flak from those that love to shoot the messenger and for them, my comments already have a bullseye on them.
Have read/listened to Sibel Edmonds for years, but it has always seemed to me that she runs with a limited amount of information (some of it probably solid and some of it crap) and doesn’t piece it together all that well. I could be wrong, but I can’t ignore that pit in my stomach that I get from her articles and video appearances.
Also note the difference in the report from Sibel and RT. Her’s focused on the “senior US military” source for the NBC report during the coup that Erdogan had fled. The report was false. Who handed it off the NBC remains TBD.
Fox appears to be debunking the RT report. Except Erdogan only points to Campbell as a source for false NBC report and hasn’t claimed the Campbell was a participant in the coup. Not sure what Campbell being stateside for the past few months would have to do with his ability to participate in the coup plot. Gulen has been in PA for almost two decades and appears not ever to have left his home there.
Cooked up by a conservative news site holding pro-Erdogan views – US Commander Campbell: The man behind the failed coup in Turkey | Yeni Şafak | . About Yeni Şafak newspaper – entry Wikipedia.
WSJ and US right-wing blogs gladly provoke the issue and copy the fake story.
In the meantime, Incirlik air base is once again surrounded by thousands of loyal Turkish military and police to do a “search”. Protesters are also at the base … Erdogan’s storm troopers.
A good guy is hard to find. In whatever is going on in Turkey. And in the US 2016 general election.
Bloomberg – America’s Friends Get Arrested in Turkey’s Post-Coup Purges
WSJ Turkish President Erdogan Snaps at U.S. General Over Coup Remarks
Not a good idea to run with rumors or allegations of CIA involvement in any nefarious activity. Better note, set aside, and keep in mind if further developments emerge. Right now it seems to be serving Erdogan’s purposes to allege that Gulen was behind the plot. TBD. Skeptics question everything and remain open-minded as more data comes along; a reason why they are never part of the CT crowd. A distinction that critics of skeptics never appreciate.
Glenn Greenwald tweet:
Source report in WaPo. “Israel and U.S are close to a deal on the biggest military aid package ever.” Est worth far more than the current $3.1 billion deal.
(Costs a lot of money to offshore our ME security to Israel. Maybe the US should have considered do that for Iraq, Libya, and Syria.)
… offshore our ME security to Israel.
What do you think we have been doing for decades? Via neocons. The tail wags the dog very much.
I was thinking more along the lines of, not needing US troops in the ME. That we could let Israel handle that region. Not such a good idea because their leaders seem even less inclined to show restraint than our leaders do. And Israel has a vested interest in no just occupying the lands of their neighbors but also annexing them.
The “tail” per se isn’t Israel, but the mindset of those high level US politicians surround themselves with. While for many of them propping up Israel is high on their agenda, I’m not sure that if that if Israel had never come into existence that their agenda would be all that different. They have retained a Cold War mentality and that mentality includes control of most of the world. For decades they sold, “we gotta put resources (either covert or overt) into country X, Y, or Z because the Russkies are there or are coming there.
Israel really wants to go after Lebanon, imo. Is this build-up to facilitate that?
Hezbollah in Lebanon, specifically.
Hasn’t been off the to-do list since the late 1970s even after getting their butts kicked when they did try to do it.
Subtext: You will need the military more because of privatized military contractors having slipped governmental control and producing for non-governmental movements.
Let that one sink in.
And think where the money for private operators to do that will come from.
Then consider what strong anti-trust regulations and breaking up or nationalizing large economic players could do.
A lot cheaper than building a military for their 2035 scenario.
William Gibson’s dystopia.
Would love to see this. Scant chance. “Then consider what strong anti-trust regulations and breaking up or nationalizing large economic players could do.”
The more likely scenario is Global Warming driven climate change will move the people of the Middle East to be killing each other over food and water resources in 2035. Seen a bit of that already in, for example, Syria.
Early warning is the FAO Food Price Index which has been analyzed to be a major triggering factor in political instability.