A few months ago I was saying that I doubted HRC could win in Virginia. That was based on my experiences in SW and Southside Va. I knew the growth of the DC suburbs, Richmond and Norfolk area would help the Democratic nominee, but was unsure if that would be enough to overcome the absolute animosity of Republicans in the rest of the state. Also I was unsure of the college turn out for HRC.
Well, I didn’t take into account the complete lunacy of Trump on national television. I mean, sure he is nuts but come on! It seems to be enough to overcome the resistance to HRC with all of the Norfolk military and retirees, the moderate Republicans in Richmond’s suburbs, and the college voters in the western part of the state. Add the popularity of HRC in the DC area and she will carry the state. She will not carry the deep Appalachian area of Far SW and Southside agricultural districts; but the population of those areas are a fraction of NOVA.
But even the Washington Post, through surveys, point out its Trump’s unpopularity as opposed to Hillary’s appeal that if fueling the Va polling spread. So they are voting AGAINST TRUMP not FOR Hillary. Which I think is the reason for her lead nationwide.
And there is still widespread distain for Hillary. I was walking into a Southside diner to have lunch and heard a man almost shout at his companion about HRC corruption and selling the State Dept. Sure its hate radio nonsense, but its constant and influencing voters. Tone it down 10 notches and you have the basic unease about Hillary many, many feel.
Ridge
How Va turned purple/blue in a decade-
https:/www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/how-did-deeply-red-virginia-become-such-a-cha
llenge-for-the-gop-in-a-single-decade/2016/08/13/36b2014e-5f21-11e6-9d2f-b1a3564181a1_story.html
Polling on Trump/HRC-
https:/www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/trump-unpopularity-fuels-wide-lead-for-clinto
n-in-new-virginia-poll/2016/08/15/ea0e1540-6307-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html
Trump is so nutso that the only open question is how far he can depress the GOP turnout.
However, it has seemed clear to me for months that NoVA would carry the state for HRC against Trump or Cruz even if either of them didn’t sound as nutso during the general election. That’s why I found it surprising that HRC chose Kaine to seal the deal in VA. OTOH, there isn’t an OH or FL politician that could have nailed down those states for her if the election remained competitive. As it is, probably didn’t matter who she chose for her VP, but going with the one she’s most comfortable and in-tune with is the optimal strategy in this political era. The “two-left-feet” tickets are the worst.
As I replied below, depending on NoVa to defeat the rest of the state is a gamble and can be a near thing… Particularly with a candidate like HRC. Kaine is popular in some regions and invisible in others with no pull. I could only guess by picking Kaine the attempt is to give comfort to a segment of the electorate and close off an Electoral College avenue for Trump.
Since the conservatism in Va is pragmatic as opposed to ideological, Trump is Hillary’s best ally in
Va.
R
Having lived in NoVa, I’m kind of mystified that you thought Trump would win VA.
The Democrats’ coalition in VA is pretty easy to understand: black folks, Latinos and suburbanites. Richmond, some bits of heavily-black areas down in the low country, Charlottesville, the VA Beach area and NoVA.
Where’s Trump gonna make gains there? Virginia Dems aren’t Iowa Dems.
And why on earth would you expect anything but animosity towards Clinton in Southwestern and Southside? Those regions are both right-wing cesspools, politically, and utterly irrelevant to Democratic chances.
Because, despite the impressions given in NoVa, Virginia remains a pragmatically conservative state (as opposed to the ideologically insane conservatism of NC). Travel south into the Valley (exclude Harrisonburg C’ville, Stanton, Blacksburg) or west, south, etc… and you will see it differently. The Legislature is Republican. The local politicians are conservative; Republican or Democratic. If the McDowell scandal had not hit and Cuccinelli had been less strident, McAuliffe could have lost instead of winning by 2 pts (with 6 points bled off the GOP by a Libertarian candidate).
Yes, presidential races bring out greater numbers, but the candidates provide the motivation. Right now, Trump is providing the motivation for the 6 or 8 pts of the 10% spread in the polls for Hillary, not her own appeal. If it had been Kasich, that margin might be much, much closer. Remember, Obama only won by 4% in 2012 with large minority turnouts.
So yeah, if Trump had moderated his behavior, talked up immigration and economic populism….he could have won Va.
R
Appreciate that the numbers don’t predict VA as an easy win for HRC. And perhaps I should factor in that WJC never won VA. Then again, the economy today isn’t what it was twenty years ago and the growth industry has been federal dollars.
It’s also difficult to ignore that out of the last four governors, three have been Democrats and a Democrat has won the last four senate races (solidly in presidential election years and very narrowly in midterm election years).
That said, I can’t explain why I put VA in HRC’s column some time ago. It’s her perfect purple state.
The problem about national reporting on Va (especially in the Post) is that its rather myopic and self reinforcing. The economy in NoVa is singing right along because of Fed spending and the professional class is doing well, trending Democratic; elects Democratic Senators (who are both rather conservative in views and voting). Charlottesville is a nice Liberal college town. Elects a Democratic Gov. (just barely). So the rest of the state must be doing the same.
Read the Richmond Times Dispatch. Its so conservative that its carved into stone tablets. Listen to the radio in Bristol, Martinsville, Danville, South Boston. Rush was big and early in Roanoke radio market. Lynchburg and area is home of Falwell Empire and religious/conservative.
The center of gravity is shifting from the rural and southern areas to NoVa. Roanoke and New River Valley is trending more liberal (or more educated/professional class with a lot of retirees). The Norfolk/Hampden Roads military and retiree areas are dependent on Fed spending and leaning more Democratic. The real question is Richmond area. Within city limits, large black population and pushing it Democratic. The surrounding suburbs are white and basically conservative/Republican. It takes a real bozo to lose them; which Trump seems to be doing.
So, as most of the political pundits and consultants are familiar with NoVa or live there, they naturally apply their experiences to the rest of the state. I live or travel in the rest of the state; talk to people in diners, gas stations, stores… and HRC is NOT popular at all. However, Trump is even more unpopular. That’s why I’m guessing that 6 or 8% of her lead in the polls is because of Trump.
R
Pundits are generally myopic and anyone that relies on them to form their conclusions is naive. Among the southern and border states that were once Democratic and then flipped, VA led the way and its “red” pockets are numerous and well-entrenched. Stuck with the GOP in ’76 when the south went with Carter.
Not all that much difference among its recent Senators — Robb, Warner, Allen, Webb, Warner, and Kaine. Vere too much into Jesse Helms territory and you don’t last long as Allen found out. Had the GOP nominated someone cut out of that cloth, Obama wouldn’t have had much of a chance there either. If not for the decades of Clinton bashing, VA voters would be able to see that HRC is most definitely cut from that same cloth. That handicap has been erased with Trump as the nominee (and it wouldn’t have been any different if Cruz had gotten the nod). That’s all I’m saying and not viewing VA as anything other than it is which IMO is neoliberal and pro-military.
I’ve thought of moving to Charlottesville to escape snow and not be surrounded by Bible-pounding yahoos. The Real estate prices have gone stratospheric.
Try the New River Valley or Roanoke. Not as tony and pretentious as C’ville and doesn’t have overt religious overtones. Won’t escape the snow though.
R
Snow like I had in Loudoun would be fine! What a day or two and it’s gone. I remember the Washington’s Birthday snowfall. A real Chicago type snowfall. 11 inches on Sunday. Monday was the Holiday. Jimmy Carter gave us all Tuesday off with pay. No snow in sight on Wednesday. Usually it didn’t take that long.
Chicago – 18 inches on Feb 2, 2015 (my last day of work! (I should have called in sick). Mid-April, still can’t fertilize lawn, still snow covered.
Also not wanting to hear damnyankee (sic – one word) ever again.
If that’s what you want, you are better moving to eastern or central Chatham county NC. There are still older areas with less-Bible-pounding types that have reasonable prices. Similar situaton in some parts of Durham and Orange counties NC. It takes more than just looking at the real estate online ads to find them however.
Areas around Asheville might have more snow than you are comfortable with.
There also might be some outlying small towns in NC and VA that have developed more progressive cultures and maintained lower real estate prices because of an influx of artsy or lower-paid academic people.
I had neighbors that moved to Myrtle Beach, but he was a golf nut. NC seems to be moving forward and I’ve also heard that VA was the worst with the damnyankee stuff. Certainly people in Alabama seemed polite and the younger people rather friendly. I worry about Hurricanes in NC.
Always something. I’ll probably die here hacking my lungs out some Winter. Destiny.
You’re not appreciating the trajectory of the state, I’m afraid. Or how presidential elections differ from others.
Or appreciating what enabled Obama to win it, and what makes Trump so utterly awful in it and why Hillary isn’t in nearly as bad a shape as you’d think on her favorables just blindly reading the polls or listening to Jessup-the-Bigoted-Nutcase in the local diner in Southside.
I appreciate that the impression of everybody south of Fredericksburg is of NoVa being an alien place with out-of-touch people who aren’t “Real Virginians,” but that doesn’t make it so. And they outnumber the Jessups at this point.
I think you over estimate the “permanence” of NoVa’s left swing and devalue the comparative conservatism of the rest of the state. Remember, when there were 12 straight years of Republicans in the White House, NoVa was home of the resurgent GOP with think tanks and defense contractors. That is when property values took off and the rampant expansion began. Those areas were solid Republican voting blocks up to 2004 which is the first year in generations Democrats carried just one of them. Just 8 yrs ago is when you saw the shift with multiple NoVa counties going for Obama. 8 (and probably 12) yrs of Democratic White Houses, is doing the same. They could flip again with the winds of political change. Now they are pulling the state’s political center of gravity northward; but once again that could change. If you need an example, look to North Carolina.
From the 60’s onward, Democratic and Republican admins followed a basic progressive policy of public investment in education at all levels, infrastructure, and courting the new technologies as the old (textiles and agriculture) slowly fell away. RTP was the main showcase, but many other parts of the state benefited. Sure there were echoes of the past like Jesse Helms, but in the main, the state was recession proof and had companies like Cisco, Merek and IBM to lead the way. They had the highest concentration of PHDs of anyplace in the country and became the “go to” place for younger professionals on the East Coast. But old ghosts are hard to kill and with changes on the national scene, there was a hard right reaction in NC. All the progress of 60 yrs is being tossed away. Everyone thought that the voting blocks of Raleigh, Durham, CH, plus the northern retirees on the coast and the enclaves around Ashville, would run the show forever. Guess what. They couldn’t stand up to motivated voters in the rest of the state and now they are saddled with insane hard right legislature and governor. And the educated populations that made progress possible are leaving, retiring, and major tech companies are downsizing. Unfriendly political atmosphere.
I don’t think Va will follow in those foot steps, but its foolish to believe that a region’s political leanings (heavily influenced by cyclical national political circumstance) will permanently overcome its state’s historic cultural foundations. It will influence it. NoVa and other regions may dilute some of the conservatism…but with the right national conservative candidate and message, the rest of Va could easily overcome NoVa voting blocks and flip the state again. I do think the changing trends in population make up and growth will continue to make Va a swing state. It will not be reliable Dem or Rep in national elections. State elections? R or D won’t matter much as they will follow the state’s historic conservatism; change will be slow and often on the margins.
R
Yes, to the extent that NoVa houses the political class of DC (and Montgomery Co MD as well), changes in partisan control in DC change their political tendencies. However, the growth in population of those areas likely damps that effect as the changes bring fewer people in proportion to the population.
The demographics of Southside Virginia tend to make it a little swingy. How the region has been gerrymandered to cut over against those demographics is the story here. But Trump seems to be depressing a significant part of the white Republican vote this year. That’s what makes it competitive (and North Carolina as well). And even South Carolina and Georgia are not sure things for Trump–an amazing situation.
>How the region has been gerrymandered to cut over against those demographics is the story here.
The 2016 district map put the college/progressive towns in the deep conservative Far SW. Previous maps had minority populations of Martinsville, Danville and university town/area Charlottesville in one district, now split with Martinsville in with SW and Roanoke counterbalanced by Lynchburg and the whole Shenandoah Valley. Danville and Charlottesville overwhelmed by the whole center 1/3 of the state.
DC counties and SE/military areas are only safe Democratic.
As per Trump suppressing the vote; see my road sign post. Perhaps in other areas but the animus toward HRC is pretty strong.
NC is an interesting case. Seems like progressives are fighting back and gov race looking bad for McCrory. But its the legislature that has been passing those lunatic bills and cutting education budgets. Is Trump cutting down on enthusiasm?
R
The last week, I have been traveling through western Va (college areas, upper mid class Roanoke valley)and Southside Va.
Have seen lots of Trump road signs, especially along the main corridors of Rt 220, 460 and 58 in Va. Only 1 HRC bumper sticker. Its still early yet, but people in both large houses and trailers are showing their support. Only one car on the Interstate with Hillary sticker and Va lic plate. This time in 2008 and 2012, saw more Obama/Biden signs; though Romney still out numbered.
Take that for what its worth.
R